BITRE September 2018 international passenger statistics

[kelvedon]

I can’t see it in the report, but is it possible to deduce the market share for Australia- UK from the data, or does the need ( in most cases) for a stopover disguise the data?

 

[Melburnian1]

I can’t see it in the report, but is it possible to deduce the market share for Australia- UK from the data, or does the need ( in most cases) for a stopover disguise the data?

If I correctly recall, you won't be able to do that on such a route, because all airlines bar one have a stopover necessitating (in most cases) a change of flight number.

The exception to LHR is QF, as it has the same B789 aircraft (with the same flight number QF9 or back, QF10) running PER - LHR and, separately, an A388 operating SYD - SIN - LHR QF1/QF2 or vice versa.

BITRE's monthly international passenger statistics publication explains this on page 4.

So, for instance, CX may carry many passengers from Australia to LHR but because the flight number typically changes as we transfer in HKG, the data does not allow calculation of how many CX passengers travelled Australia - LHR or in reverse.

I agree that it would be very interesting to know market shares for every longer route but the international airlines would guard that pretty closely.

One can calculate Australia to HKG, SIN, ICN, Japan, MNL, Indonesia market shares to name a few but with the destinations beyond where all or most passengers, this is generally not possible.

 

[kelvedon]

Thanks for that Melburnian 1. I thought that may be the issue.

 

[flybynight]

This has to be the most boring thread ever! Who cares about load factors etc?
Seems more like a competition amongst contributors as to who can use the most acronymns in a single post.

 

[Melburnian1]

This has to be the most boring thread ever! Who cares about load factors etc?
Seems more like a competition amongst contributors as to who can use the most acronymns in a single post.

It's optional to view.

Mattg, who writes extremely well and as a result authors the bi-weekly AFF Gazette obviously didn't consider it 'boring' as he has turned it into a discussion for the newsletter.

500 other views (by perhaps 350 unique readers) have occurred with constructive discussion. You are, of course, entitled to your view. Why not start your own thread on something you consider interesting, and then we can all have the choice as to whether to read it, or view and respond?

If you had read my original post properly, you might have noticed that I used very few acronyms. In most cases I spelt airline names out in full to make it easier to read (less capitalisation).

Others may not find every one of your posts interesting, but variety is the spice...

Sure, many may not care about load factors until they think it through.

Low load factors do not inform us as to what the all important yields per seat (or per passenger) are, but in some cases they can be a guide to which airlines are most at risk of pulling out of Oz, or alternatively that are most likely to introduce, in time, additional return flights because load factors are so good.

If, for instance, MH (Malaysia Airlines) pulled out of Oz - KUL because load factors (and yields) were poor, D7 would, all other things being equal, be able to raise its median fare.

Mattg recently highlighted Donghai Airlines's low load factors to and from DRW. Can it last?

So there are effects for we travellers, good or bad.

 

[jetpack]

This is interesting. The one thing that makes me happiest on a flight is a row to myself or at least a shadow. This data helps with that.

I am also currently trying to get lifetime status on QF. Sadly it looks like doing so will just lead to a lifetime of shadowless flights.

 

[Melburnian1]

This is interesting. The one thing that makes me happiest on a flight is a row to myself or at least a shadow. This data helps with that.

I am also currently trying to get lifetime status on QF. Sadly it looks like doing so will just lead to a lifetime of shadowless flights.

jetpack, I know from where you're coming but even if QF has a load factor of 90 per cent plus on say its South American and Filipino routes, it doesn't mean every flight is full.

It may pay to (depending on route) travel on what is the quietest day. Just like the supermarkets, Tuesday often is referred to as that (or Wednesday if like the Chilean QF route, it doesn't operate on Tuesdays).

One little trick I have in Y is to reserve a seat a couple of rows from the back (though not the last row, as who wants to be next to the galley's lights and crew's mindless chatter, or adjacent to an irritating almost continually flushing loo?) Due to the smaller size of some airlines' J cabins, that little move doesn't work as much in J. The last row of J may see you next to the curtain separating you from W or horror of horrors, Y class.

On an airline that has high load factors, it doesn't guarantee a shadow but it helps your chances as in Y (and even in J) everyone seems to want to sit up the front.

Another possibility is to choose an airline that has low load factors. Again, no guarantee but you've improved your chances, so study the BITRE report for the month you want to travel.

 

[dajop]

Who cares about load factors etc?.

Anyone who wants a “lie flat” experience in economy, or at the very least would like to maximise the chance of having an empty seat beside them!!

 

[pauly7]

Minor comment on one small part of what you’ve posted; but China Airlines are charging extremely good prices & at least SYD and MEL are serviced by new aircraft with very good interiors. The in-flight catering is awful ex-SYD, ex-TPE & ex-LGW; but it’ll be the pricing that’s increased their business, London in J for $4k return in the middle of their summer holidays on an A359 for example.

As for recognition, though; definitely. People think it’s a “mainland China” airline & avoid it accordingly.

Or are avoiding it for its very patchy safety record. They don’t have a good reputation in this area...

 

[Franky]

'These tell us what percentage of seats were occupied by paying customers (including passengers travelling on frequent flyer redemption tickets).'

It may be obvious to some, or I may be a bit slow, but if someone is not a paying customer, or flying on a redemption ticket, how do they get a seat on an aircraft?

 

[dajop]

'It may be obvious to some, or I may be a bit slow, but if someone is not a paying customer, or flying on a redemption ticket, how do they get a seat on an aircraft?

On every international flight I've ever been on to/from Australia, there's been at least 6 seats occupied during take off and landing by people who weren't paying customers

 

[Melburnian1]

Or are avoiding it for its very patchy safety record. They don’t have a good reputation in this area...

You are correct if referring to more than 15 years ago, but wasn't its last incident involving loss of life more than 16 years ago?

I am no expert but if true, that would indicate a change in culture and aircraft maintenance standards.

I have flown multiple times on BR but never on CI, and am keen to try it. Unlike D7, it isn't on a 'do not fly' list.

It's unfair to regard an airline as 'unsafe' if it's not had a major incident for 10 or 15 years. That is the approach the Airline Ratings website takes.

 

[odysseus]

I thought the food was pretty terrible; but wasn’t sure if I was expecting too much of in-flight catering, I’m not a J expert by any stretch of the imagination. But a workmate who’s P1 with QF (ie. flies a lot on plenty of different airlines) was of the same opinion when he flew CI, so it wasn’t just me.
The hard product eclipses QF though.

Same deal with the TPE lounge; I was happy enough with the shower setup, which IMHO worked really well, but the food/drink wasn’t as good as QF J domestic (in SYD). And old mate agreed, so it wasn’t just me!

Having said all of that; would fly CI again given the cost. $4k return to the UK & was super happy with the comfort. I’d preload entertainment into the iPad if doing it again, but for Y+ prices it was srsly awesome.

I agree with you that the food wasn't great. That said, it was still reasonable, and certainly not China Eastern standard inedible.

From other reviews I read though, food never came across as a standout. Some preferred it more than others, but it was not going to win any best catering awards nor be a highlight.

Unfortunately agreed about the TPE lounge. They had a small range of food and even worse don't change it throughout the day. Arrived 6 a.m, left 5 p.m. and it's the same limited range throughout. So if you don't find much appealing in the morning, there won't be any improvement later either. Showers are the best thing about that lounge.

 

[odysseus]

Donghai Airlines had loads of 44% inbound and 27% outbound on the new DRW-SZX route. Ouch.

I checked their site as I wasn't familiar with them.

They apparently aren't marketing to Australians in any case, since you can't even book in Australian dollars. The price only comes up in Chinese yuan. That'd turn off most who happened to stumble across it. That said, the site hasn't even been tailored for locals - very 'Chinese' with poor grammar and weird words (like "privilegy") throughout. The only concession to locals is they have an Australian telephone number... though I wouldn't be surprised if it just went to their regular call centre - I didn't check.

So then it comes down to how they market to Chinese customers...

 

[Franky]

On every international flight I've ever been on to/from Australia, there's been at least 6 seats occupied during take off and landing by people who weren't paying customers

OK - if they are crew, there would be more of them and they aren't passengers, so shouldn't be in the stats? So what's their secret?

 

[dajop]

OK - if they are crew, there would be more of them and they aren't passengers,

I was being flippant, I was meaning crew, and they won't be included in stats. But there are aircraft that operate scheduled international services to/from Australia - with just two pilots and two cabin crew, so in those instances there would be less than that.

Aside from that there would be non-revenue passengers, such as deadheading crew, company staff on duty travel etc ... assume they are included in stats though.

 

[Franky]

I was being flippant, I was meaning crew, and they won't be included in stats. But there are aircraft that operate scheduled international services to/from Australia - with just two pilots and two cabin crew, so in those instances there would be less than that.

Aside from that there would be non-revenue passengers, such as deadheading crew, company staff on duty travel etc ... assume they are included in stats though.

Thanks - I thought a few of that type would be aboard, but not sure whether they could or should be counted.

 

[Melburnian1]

Thanks - I thought a few of that type would be aboard, but not sure whether they could or should be counted.

The BITRE reports include 'revenue passengers.'

It defines these as 'Revenue Passengers: - For July 2000 and onwards: All passengers paying any fare (frequent flyer redemption passengers are regarded as revenue passengers). In most cases, Revenue Passengers will now include all passengers excluding Free Of Charge passengers and positioning crew.'

 

[pauly7]

You are correct if referring to more than 15 years ago, but wasn't its last incident involving loss of life more than 16 years ago?

I am no expert but if true, that would indicate a change in culture and aircraft maintenance standards.

I have flown multiple times on BR but never on CI, and am keen to try it. Unlike D7, it isn't on a 'do not fly' list.

It's unfair to regard an airline as 'unsafe' if it's not had a major incident for 10 or 15 years. That is the approach the Airline Ratings website takes.

I’m no expert either don’t worry, I just suspect there is a lot of hangover from their past incidents still in the public’s mind. Although they aren’t on our DNF list, I know a lot of our Asian team (not just the Chinese!) won’t fly them on so called safety grounds. True or not, seems to be a perception still.

I haven’t personally flown them either, would I? Potentially! Just haven’t needed to yet.

 

[Forg]

I’m no expert either don’t worry, I just suspect there is a lot of hangover from their past incidents still in the public’s mind. Although they aren’t on our DNF list, I know a lot of our Asian team (not just the Chinese!) won’t fly them on so called safety grounds. True or not, seems to be a perception still.

Nobody I spoke to knew anything about a safety history ... and once the fact of it not being a Mainland China airline was made apparent, no negativity remained. I don’t know if any but a tiny percentage of the population know anything about this; and it seems the price-sensitive don’t care, they’ll happily fly “mainland China” airlines like China Eastern and China Southern despite the 1-in-10 chance of dying in a terrible crash due to the expected prioritisation of profit over safety.