Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

NM

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Sure. But today is day 15? So usually majority return positive by around day 12 of exposure so it’s strange to have two today.
Maybe day 15 from case-0, but not necessarily day 15 from when these quarantining people were actually infected.
 

lovetravellingoz

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The hotel worker with the false negative was the one who spread the virus at the private event. As soon as her positive came through all the people at event were told to test and do 14 days iso at home. At that point (a day after the event) it was unlikely the other guests were infectious yet. If those exposed guests live with other people who werent at the event, it would have been smarter for the ones who werent there to iso in a different house. If you are in a common household its pretty hard to avoid contact and shared ventilation.

Your timeline is not correct ie people were not told to isolate a day after the event (Feb 7) and the information you have written does not match that which is publicly available.

Event was on Feb 6. First confirmed positive result was on Feb 10. By the time the people were told to isolate they would have already have potentially exposed any persons they were living with.

Case 7
Hotel Staff

Holiday Inn food and beverage worker (lives with cases 9 and 12). Attended a family gathering in Coburg on February 6. Tested negative on February 7, but now considered to have returned a weak positive on that date. Officially tested positive on February 10.


Case 14
Coburg Party attendee

Point Cook man in his 30s. Attended family function in Coburg on February 6. Tested positive on February 12.

It was after this that all persons at the event were told to isolate.


What actually happened:

The Coburg venue where three close contacts are now confirmed to have contracted COVID-19 was not listed as an exposure site until late on Friday – two days after the hotel quarantine worker tested positive. Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said the venue had not been on the radar of the public health team as a potential site because the COVID-19 Quarantine Victoria staff member, who attended the February 6 event, had tested negative for the virus the following day.

“We now know with laboratory testing of the sample that it was a weak positive,” Professor Sutton said. “When you’ve got a negative test the day after an event, it’s not in scope as an exposure for someone who is potentially infectious because you don’t imagine them to be infectious.”
Nasal and throat swab testing has a sensitivity rate of 99 per cent, and Professor Sutton reassured Victorians a false-negative result was an infrequent occurrence.

“It is highly unusual to get a negative test on someone who was later found to be positive, and in fact, transmitted to other people,” he said.

“To be a weak positive but to pass on to others is unusual. But we have to be agile in our response and understand that that was a transmission event, and wrap the public health response around everyone who was here.”

Authorities identified the function venue at 426 Sydney Road, Coburg, as a high-exposure site late on Friday after a man aged in his 30s from Point Cook, who attended the venue with family members including the hotel quarantine worker on February 6, tested positive.

Everyone at the venue has been identified and contacted, but following the two new confirmed cases on Sunday two swim centres, a bakery and a supermarket in Melbourne’s north were added to a growing list of high-risk exposure sites.

Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton says it is “exceptionally rare” to record a false-negative result.



 

Happy Trails

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I remember watching Chris Cuomo the CNN journalist who caught CV19 and was doing his show from his basement while he recovered.

He was a "long-hauler" and remained positive and symptomatic for an extensive time period.

He tested positive on March 31, 2020. His wife and children quarantined upstairs from him, but brought him food etc but without close contact.


His wife tested positive on April 15
His 14 year old son tested positive on April 21 or 22

So if quarantining together it can take a little while for the virus to ripple through the people in the quarantined household.
Cuomo is known to have broken quarantine, along with his family, on at least one occasion.
 

Lynda2475

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My timeline may have been wrong (however if tests results were interpreted correctly the notification should have been faster) but my point about why it is better not to iso with a close contact of a known positive remains valid.

If a HQ worker tests positive at work, and have been checking in with QR code everywhere they go, then contact tracees shoukd easily be able to identify and contact all close contacts in 24 hours (48 at worst), at this point those close contacts are not likely to yet be infectious and if they iso away from any household members that were not at the exposure event, the spread will be less than if they dont (should they becomepositive). Homes are the place where most non work related spread happens.

It is highly unlikely todays cases were at a known transmission event i.e the coburg party, and more likely given the timing that they were cohabiting with someone who was.
 

lovetravellingoz

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(however if tests results were interpreted correctly the notification should have been faster)

Based on the article I posted just above that is also not correct.

It was not a case of interpreting the result incorrectly. It was a false negative. This happens in testing. The testing process is not 100% accurate, nor is it expected to be. False results occur from time to time. It has nothing to do with interpreting the result incorrectly.

After a positive test was later obtained they went back and did further testing on the original sample.

“We now know with laboratory testing of the sample that it was a weak positive,”

It is 100% normal that when there is doubt on a result that they go back and do more testing of various kinds. They will also typically do another PCR test.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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What does it even matter they are in HQ everyone needs to calm down and breathe...

Yes what matters is:

Is the outbreak being contained = yes
Has there been any unknown community transmission = no
Have all new cases been found promptly = yes
Have all the most probable people to have possibly been infected been swiftly placed into quarantine = yes
Have all the recent cases been occurring in people in already quarantine = yes
 
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dajop

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Yes what matters is:

Is the outbreak being contained = yes
Has there been any unknown community transmission = no
Have all new cases been found promptly = yes
Have all the most probable people to have possibly been infected been swiftly placed into quarantine = yes
Have all the recent cases been occurring in people in already quarantine = yes
No, what matters is that Victoria is nowhere near as good as NSW, who are perfect ;):oops::p:D (ducks for cover).

In seriousness though, I’ve made it clear that I’m not one for all this interstate rivalry. Indeed that is one of the strengths of the federation that you have 6-8 jurisdictions doing similar but slightly different things and - in any sphere - at different times some will perform better than others. The key is learning from what works well and what hasn’t and adjusting appropriately.
 

jakeseven7

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And these people went into HQ because they were close contacts and as such have tested positive as close contacts and have been in quarantine, as close contacts. If they weren't, they would have been in isolation, as close contacts. Regardless same result.

Happy Friday and happy full border reopenings for tomorrow for QLD.
 

Lynda2475

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The point of my post was to explain why we are seeing cases so long after public exposures which is the question that was asked by Pushka.

lovetravellingoz can never admit that any reason I post which was household transmission)l is the likely cause because it differs from their reason that it's due to the newer strains having longer incubation periods.

So instead lovetravellingoz disects posts and starts trying to prove Vic is perfect and tell others what should matter.

People can decide what matters to them it isn't always going to be about what matters to you. Stop looking to start arguments when none is necessary you can choose to believe it's not a case of household transmission but it is a super safe bet it is.

A person who is notified they were exposed as a close contact at a venue that the rest of their household did not attend, would be wise to iso away from their household to reduce risk of spreading it in the home should they develop covid. Comes down to how much you care about those you live with really. That is the case no matter what state you live in.
 

MelMel

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These new strains seem to have longer incubation periods. Personally that is why I tend to believe they are more transmissible (ie not higher viral loads, but just because people stay infectious for longer and that can infect more people = higher Ro)

However if the two new cases were living with a case (quarantining together), they could have been infected much later than the person who infected them.
I was reading today that the UK was thinking of extending the quarantine time because the Kent variant has a longer infectious period. The article then went on to say that they will extend it from 10 days to 14 days! So all along it seems the UK has had a 10 day quarantine period. No wonder cases are spreading rapidly!
 

lovetravellingoz

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lovetravellingoz can never admit that any reason I post which was household transmission)l is the likely cause because it differs from their reason that it's due to the newer strains having longer incubation periods.

So instead lovetravellingoz disects posts and starts trying to prove Vic is perfect and tell others what should matter.

People can decide what matters to them it isn't always going to be about what matters to you. Stop looking to start arguments when none is necessary you can choose to believe it's not a case of household transmission but it is a super safe bet it is.

You are confused, I have never stated that it is not a household transmission case. Nor have I claimed Vic is perfect. I do disagree with some of your factually incorrect claims though.

One of my first posts today to Pushka clearly said in the second sentence that the 2 cases today could be household transmission
1614318378155.png
The reference to it being more transmissible has nothing at all to do whether any case is acquired in the workplace, HQ, socially or in households. So far in this cluster the virus has been transmitted in a number of settings.



People catch the virus regardless of the type of strain.

Household transmission has occurred throughout the pandemic. Indeed in the second wave in Vic it was a key driver and the very large family sizes led to a high Ro..

At present most likely cases are in quarantine and household transmission is common in recent cases.

I even posted a graphic from the Age earlier today which showed the transmission links.

1614317755210.png
 
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lovetravellingoz

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I was reading today that the UK was thinking of extending the quarantine time because the Kent variant has a longer infectious period. The article then went on to say that they will extend it from 10 days to 14 days! So all along it seems the UK has had a 10 day quarantine period. No wonder cases are spreading rapidly!

Apart from quarantine periods themselves, in Australia for cases that tested positive in hotel quarantine it was 10 days isolation after a positive test. Due the new strains this was increased up to 14 days not that long ago.

There also seems to be some thought that 14 day quarantine periods may not be long enough due to examples in NZ and NSW for example who tested positive after the 14 day quarantine period.
 

Lynda2475

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Im not confused, you go out of your way looking to find things to correct people on.

I really hope you get some work soon as you obviously have way too much time on your hands so have appointed yourself the fact check police, taking things out of context and gleefully making mountains out of molehills.

It was clear what the intent of my reply to Pushka was, just as its clear you are looking for a fight.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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Perhaps if (most) of our venerable Premiers, Police Commissioners, and CHO's didnt panic then the rest of us might follow suit!

Fully agree.

I do understand it at the time of Vic's second wave, but from about October on as a number of aspects have changed outbreaks in the main have been well controlled (ie unknown community cases) and quickly quelled.

In 2021 interstate border restrictions and broad lockdown measures is cracking walnuts with sledgehammers. And my personal view is that if the two ring measure is used that travel restrictions (part from those within the two rings) and lockdown adds no value, but cause great financial harm.
 

lovetravellingoz

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I really hope you get some work soon as you obviously have way too much time on your hands so have appointed yourself the fact check police, taking things out of context and gleefully making mountains out of molehills.

I am just back from working 3 weeks in Queensland and employed many grateful and happy Queenslanders.
 

Pushka

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I was reading today that the UK was thinking of extending the quarantine time because the Kent variant has a longer infectious period. The article then went on to say that they will extend it from 10 days to 14 days! So all along it seems the UK has had a 10 day quarantine period. No wonder cases are spreading rapidly!
I remember when Boris developed Covid he only had to isolate for a week! They have learnt though, back in October son from Australia had to self isolate for a fortnight.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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The very high testing numbers continue.

The 2 cases are primary contacts of already known cases and have been quarantining, so as expected as some of the primary cases are in their day 11-14.

Thankfully no ammunition for our trigger happy premiers and border openings will not be affected so everyone remain CALM 😂

= as you say, don't panic.

This is just an example of a good system working well.
...

These two cases may well be people quarantining with a case, and if so can become infected well after the first person became infected.
1614353625595.png
Sure. But today is day 15? So usually majority return positive by around day 12 of exposure so it’s strange to have two today.

It has now been confirmed that the two new cases were identified on a standard Day 11 test. Not HQ workers, so no daily tests and so they could have become positive anytime between their Day 1 test and their Day 11 test. .

The last 3 cases were also Day 11 tests.

The new cases include two household members of cases that attended the private function on Sydney Road, Coburg. Note that it says household and not family members.

 
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