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Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

kyle

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she really misses the social contact with workmates as she is a very social person.
When I was working in the office pre covid, I would often say to my colleagues, I already see you that many hours during the week, why would I want to see you on the weekend too?
 

jakeseven7

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From the Vic Presser.

2 of the cases may be older cases where the virus has lingered and are subject to expert panel review. ie They may not be new cases,

The other case is a young child from an early learning centre. Mother originally tested positive . Daughter tested originally negative but second follow up test yesterday has returned positive. So case has been isolating for almost a week.



That centre is the Goodstart Early Learning Centre in Bundoora.

Dr Wallace said the Department of Education has the learning centre already on its website as an exposure site.

The child attended between October 20-22.



"Her mother was identified as a case on the 25th and the child was quarantined from that day onwards," Dr Wallace said.
"The early learning centre was closed from the 25th and has already undergone some cycles of deep cleaning and will reopen when the outbreak squad is happy that the deep cleaning is satisfactory.
"The child herself tested negative on October 26 but was retested on the 28th and tested positive.
"There are about a dozen close contacts - eight children and four staff."



Dr Wallace said results from six of those eight children and three of the four staff were negative.

There is testing under way by Austin Health.






All close contacts are so far negative. Secondary contacts (90 odd) are now being asked to test.


No detail on the mystery case.

Oh so its probably just 1 case today, all in isolation anyway regardless.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Oh so its probably just 1 case today,

Yes.

Oh so its probably just 1 case today, all in isolation anyway regardless.

One of these two cases is a patient who was previously infected. They as part of the ongoing treatment, when they present for treatment were tested as per current procedures and this gave a positive result. They believe it will not be a new infection but will be one of these lingering cases who are also not contagious.

So would be isolating now, but may well not have been prior to the test.

with the others, none of them have only just gone into isolation.

Plus the new mystery case may or may not be a mystery case in the typical sense. At the presser it was indicated that the daily DHHS report (comes out anywhere from mid afternoon to early evening) would have more detail on this.
 

jakeseven7

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HappyFlyerFamily

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Nsw mystery case watch

Today’s reports indicate:
- 0 in the past 7 days
- 3 in the period 8-14 days
- 1 in the period 15-28 days
- 30 older than 28 days but since before Crossroads emerged.

Not sure how an extra mystery case turned up in the last 48 hour reporting period (perhaps that blood test that picked up a case from July), but it’s older than 28 days.

I think Thursday is when the 3 cases in the 8-14 day period will move to the 15-28 day bracket through natural ageing, if not linked earlier.

Nsw mystery case watch

Today’s reports indicate:
- 4 in the past 7 days
- 0 in the period 8-14 days
- 3 in the period 15-28 days
- 31 older than 28 days but since before Crossroads emerged.

NSW health have inconsistent reports. Two are indicating 4 mystery cases today (even though from same household). The third report recording a +1 mystery case.

Terrific timing to see how Qld chooses to backflip or not
 

NM

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And I assume the 4 new cases reported in NT are from the recent repatriation flight from the UK. Just goes to show how vitally important the quarantine process is for international arrivals. I expect the passengers would not have been permitted to travel if they were positive or showing any symptoms. So must assume they were infected in the days before departure and not symptomatic (and hopefully not contagious) during the flight.

1603949914983.png
 

Pushka

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And I assume the 4 new cases reported in NT are from the recent repatriation flight from the UK. Just goes to show how vitally important the quarantine process is for international arrivals. I expect the passengers would not have been permitted to travel if they were positive or showing any symptoms. So must assume they were infected in the days before departure and not symptomatic (and hopefully not contagious) during the flight.

View attachment 231842
EDIT: I believe they had to have a positive 😱 duh Negative test before departure. Agree, the management of the international arrivals is critical for future months.
 
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NM

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And I assume the 4 new cases reported in NT are from the recent repatriation flight from the UK. Just goes to show how vitally important the quarantine process is for international arrivals. I expect the passengers would not have been permitted to travel if they were positive or showing any symptoms. So must assume they were infected in the days before departure and not symptomatic (and hopefully not contagious) during the flight.

View attachment 231842
Actually, looks like the India flight, not UK flight.

 

lovetravellingoz

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Today's Vic DHHS REPORT Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Coronavirus update for Victoria - Thursday 29 October 2020

Note that at the presser this morning it was indicated that there would be more details on the new Mystery Case (ie the one added to today's rolling total to up it to 4).

Salient parts:

Media Release
29 October 2020

Victoria has recorded three new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 20,344.
The overall total has increased by two due to one case being reclassified.

Of today’s three new cases one is a child associated with Goodstart Early Learning in Plenty Road, Bundoora. The case is linked to the north metro outbreak and the child was in quarantine when they tested positive. The centre has been closed this week and contract tracing is underway.

One is a man who tested positive in August. An Expert Review Panel is reviewing this case to determine whether this is a new infection or shedding of old non-infectious virus.

One is a man whose partner tested positive in August. Investigations are under way into whether this is a new infection or whether the man contracted coronavirus from his partner many weeks ago, and his positive test represents shedding of old non-infectious virus.

The new cases are in the local government areas of Boroondara, Casey and Darebin.

There have been no new deaths from COVID-19 reported since yesterday. To date, 819 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.
 

Lynda2475

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NSW health have inconsistent reports. Two are indicating 4 mystery cases today (even though from same household). The third report recording a +1 mystery case.

In the presser this morning Gladys indicated she expected today local cases to be linked shortly to an existing cluster, the household is in the same area as recent cases.
 

lovetravellingoz

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When I was working in the office pre covid, I would often say to my colleagues, I already see you that many hours during the week, why would I want to see you on the weekend too?

Sorry, by social I just meant the interactions at work, and not the after hours ones.

She is very team orientated and was an elite rower. So she enjoys the camaraderie of working together with others. So working alone in a room is very foreign to her.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Our modelling was slammed, but Melbourne did it. Our prize is getting our lives back


Our modelling was slammed, but Melbourne did it. Our prize is getting our lives back
I know I’m probably running against the grain a lot but the modelling was not spot on.

I guess it’s DHHS that did a good job playing with the edges to get the desired outcome.

The modelling was woeful especially in respect of the first Melbourne relaxation triggers/markers. To me it seems quite clear to me that the first relaxation triggers/markers were met too early and seemingly forced the government/DHHS to play silly buggers by delaying as much as possible implementing the full intended relaxation step (and only implementing some minor changes early to placate public expectation) so as to not compromise the intended outcomes for the second set of relaxation triggers/markers.

So in my mind the modellers get a 60-65% grade so far, which is pretty good for the hard task they have. They were able to be implement steps fully on Regional Vic (roughly 25% of Vic population) early. They stuffed up the first Melbourne markers and needed DHHS/government to politically manoeuvre from taking the first full intended step when the markers were actually met and as a result was in a position to achieve the second markers roughly in line with the originally modelled timeframe.

We shall see how the next step markers go.
 

lovetravellingoz

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I know I’m probably running against the grain a lot but the modelling was not spot on.

No modelling is 100% spot on.

However compared to other modelling I have read both for Australian and international jurisdictions it has been pretty good. Indeed many others have often been wildly inaccurate, and even the better ones still quite inaccurate.

However rather than the focus on dates, the key importance and measure of success of the modelling and its accuracy was to model the effect of a wide range of measures and restrictions that possibly could be used (and at different settings) in order to come up with the right cocktail that could suppress the transmission of the virus while maintaining as much economic activity as possible (ie avoiding a full lockdown). It is this which is why the modelling was good. It allowed the right levers to be used, and one would have to say that the modellers did very well in using the modelling to select the levers.

That the timelines were also pretty good is a bonus, but the real measure of its success of the modelling was getting the range of measures, and their settings, right.
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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No modelling is 100% spot on.

However compared to other modelling I have read both for Australian and international jurisdictions it has been pretty good. Indeed many others have often been wildly inaccurate, and even the better ones still quite inaccurate.

However rather than the focus on dates, the key importance and measure of success of the modelling and its accuracy was to model the effect of a wide range of measures and restrictions that possibly could be used (and at different settings) in order to come up with the right cocktail that could suppress the transmission of the virus while maintaining as much economic activity as possible (ie avoiding a full lockdown). It is this which is why the modelling was good. It allowed the right levers to be used, and one would have to say that the modellers did very well in using the modelling to select the levers.

That the timelines were also pretty good is a bonus, but the real measure of its success of the modelling was getting the range of measures, and their settings, right.
I agree the modelling was pretty good.

I know there is continuous modelling of sorts. Perhaps my memory is failing but I thought the settings was already established (Stage 4 lockdown) for a few weeks before they did modelling to come up with the roadmap for relaxations. If this is right then it seems the length of time keeping restrictions (ie the date) is the main factor left to drive numbers down.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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In the presser this morning Gladys indicated she expected today local cases to be linked shortly to an existing cluster, the household is in the same area as recent cases.
Fair enough. But the 3 relevant NSW Health reports with inconsistent mystery case classification are all as at the same time (8pm).

Today around 11am might see some reports bring resolution/corrections.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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I agree the modelling was pretty good.

I know there is continuous modelling of sorts. Perhaps my memory is failing but I thought the settings was already established (Stage 4 lockdown) for a few weeks before they did modelling to come up with the roadmap for relaxations. If this is right then it seems the length of time keeping restrictions (ie the date) is the main factor left to drive numbers down.


There were differences, however with the modelling it was to firstly to determine what would be the criteria (which became called triggers) that would allow the restrictions to be eased with a goal being to have low risk of a third wave occurring again. With those determined it then allowed predicted of when they may be achieved (ie timelines). So the modelling is not just on timelines, but on what was required to allow that safe reopening. The roadmap decided upon was a plan of the measures/restrictions with steps for easing's with different triggers, and yes with timelines. But the timelines were a guide with the actual target triggers being what needed to be achieved.



1603982560869.png

Now how fully accurate the modelling will be the future will reveal. But from now on after 8th Nov they are just triggers and no timelines are given.

ie
1603983249971.png
 

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