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Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

DC3

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Aged care COVID preparation insufficient, royal commission finds. The Federal Government's actions were "insufficient" ....

Not really surprising:

 

lovetravellingoz

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One significant aspect of the Vic Cases of the last two days is that the majority were not in the original Second Wave Hotspots in the north. The S/SE now dominates where cases are occurring. Casey however has been prominent throughout the second wave.

1st: Of today’s 15 new cases, there are five cases in Casey, two cases in Greater Dandenong, Maribyrnong and Monash and single cases in Boroondara, Glen Eira, Wyndham and Yarra.

30th: Of today’s 13 new cases, there are three cases in Melton, two cases in Monash, Moonee Valley and Stonnington and single cases in Boroondara, Greater Dandenong, Kingston and Whitehorse.
 

Lynda2475

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From SMH:

Top 4 countries exporting COVID-19 cases to Sydney

Australians flying home from Pakistan, the US, Britain, India and cruise ship passengers account for the bulk of NSW's COVID-19 cases imported from overseas, as community transmissions slow to a trickle.

Sydney's network of quarantine hotels could soon become the last remaining foothold for the virus in NSW.

Travellers in quarantine have been the only new COVID-19 cases reported in NSW for six days straight.

On Thursday, NSW Health reported two new cases in returned travellers in hotel quarantine and a case of a man in south-western Sydney that the ministry believes is an old case only just detected.

With confirmed cases isolated and Sydney's COVID clusters burning out the virus is being starved of new bodies to infect, but Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant warned it is still circulating undetected and called for constant vigilance, especially in south-west Sydney.

Since March 29, there have been 786 confirmed COVID-19 cases among returned travellers. This includes travellers who arrived up to 14 days prior. Cruise ships, Pakistan, the US, Britain and India accounted for more than 58 per cent of COVID-19 infections in quarantine.

1601540095000.png
Cruise passengers and crew accounted for 16 per cent (125 people).

Just under 14 per cent were returning from Pakistan (109 people). Another 11 per cent came from the US (87 people), 8.8 per cent from Britain (69 people) and 8.5 per cent from India (67 people).

All four countries have been badly affected by COVID-19 outbreaks.


The US has recorded more cases than any other country, with more than 7 million people infected and 205,000 COVID-related deaths. India is inching closer to overtaking the US, with more than 6 million confirmed cases and roughly 80,000 deaths added to the total daily.

Britain recorded its highest daily number of new cases on Wednesday (4044) and an overall COVID-19 death toll of more than 42,000 people.

Pakistan is faring comparably well after flattening the curve in the past three months from its peak daily total of new infections exceeding 5000 to 747 on Wednesday and a total of 312,263 cases over the course of the pandemic.

But regardless of their countries of origin, all international travellers arriving in Sydney are treated as high risk.

More than half of NSW’s 4038 COVID cases are imported from overseas and 90 are travellers who contracted the virus interstate.

The majority of people diagnosed with COVID-19 in hotel quarantine are Australian nationals, a spokesperson for NSW Health said.

Australia was one of the first countries to implement mandatory 14-day quarantine for incoming international travellers.

Dr Chant has repeatedly said NSW's COVID caseload showed the hotel quarantine program was effectively detecting and isolating infectious cases, allowing contact tracers to focus on finding local transmissions.

Since March 28, all returned travellers have been shepherded from Sydney International airport to quarantine hotels managed by NSW Health and NSW Police.

All arrivals are screened at the airport and anyone running a fever or who has any symptoms are tested and referred to a “Health Hotel” managed by NSW Health.

People who were well and had no symptoms at the screening are sent to a quarantine hotel managed by NSW Police.

Everyone in hotel quarantine is tested on day two of their stay and again on day 10
. Anyone who refuses to be tested must remain in quarantine for an additional 10 days.

Before leaving hotel quarantine, everyone has a temperature check and an interview with a doctor about their health.

The last locally-acquired case in NSW was reported on September 25, a man in his 50s from a disability home that contact tracers suspect is linked to the Liverpool Hospital cluster.
 
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RooFlyer

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Their reporting seems to be a bit different than above.
Like I've said a number of times here - that's the virtue of getting your media from a variety of sources and perspectives. For instance, (speaking generally) a diet of the ABC, the Guardian and Nine (formerly Fairfax) media will usually skew one's perspective.

I was surprised that the Vic Govt had to urgently pull off hotel contractors recently, for whatever reason. One would have hoped that with the history there, contractors would have been scrutinised and monitored so closely there could have been no reason for a mid-shift pulling of people off the job.

Ah, I see you've made the same point a few posts later.
 

Lynda2475

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If 14 days quarantine is deemed sufficient for overseas arrivals, anyone who tests positive and close contacts - why does Qld require the whole of NSW wait 28 days with no mystery cases?
 

jakeseven7

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I believe the unknown trigger is going to be the key factor going forward
Definitely will be key, it is very important and more so when you have such low absolute numbers like VIC now.


---

Don't sweat on the famous five – it's the mystery numbers that count: Sutton


Over the long months of Victoria’s second wave of COVID-19 infections, Melburnians' spirits have soared or slumped with each day's release of case numbers.

But Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton has a message of hope for those fretting on our chances of cracking the crucial five-cases-a-day threshold for moving to the next stage in the road map out of lockdown.

Professor Sutton said on Wednesday that he and his colleagues had moved, as case numbers dropped towards single digits, to placing greater weight on the "story" behind each diagnosis, and confirmed they were prepared to be flexible on that magic number.

 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Sorry but I take a different view.......getting under the benchmarks early won’t mean that Step 3 Melbourne will happen early.....it’s so disappointing

I’d be so disappointed say if cases are under 20 for the 14 days leading up to decision day and Vic Health couldn’t trace all the cases under this Step/lockdown - let alone needing to call 5 as mystery cases over 14 days.

To me, it’s starts to speak to track n trace if it’s not under 5 mystery cases over 14 days
 
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Well they were very clear that there was no way that step 3 would happen before the 19th as they wanted a full 3 weeks after the easing that was announced on Sunday. They felt that was the minimum needed to fully assess the impact,

the question is more whether they will ease even if the 14 day rolling average is above 5 and I will believe they will as long as mystery cases are around the 5. The rolling day average, if you take out the cases in care, is already under 5 so we are just waiting on mystery cases to come down and then the 19th will see step 3.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Well they were very clear that there was no way that step 3 would happen before the 19th as they wanted a full 3 weeks after the easing that was announced on Sunday. They felt that was the minimum needed to fully assess the impact,

the question is more whether they will ease even if the 14 day rolling average is above 5 and I will believe they will as long as mystery cases are around the 5. The rolling day average, if you take out the cases in care, is already under 5 so we are just waiting on mystery cases to come down and then the 19th will see step 3.
If we are waiting on the 19/10, then the clock on track and trace starts on 3/10 (the 48 hour delay) or 5/10. So today’s number is less meaningful......sigh. One to four more practice days......
 

Lynda2475

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QLDs Roadmap:

1601599874155.png

From: SMH:

Under the roadmap, the NSW border will reopen on November 1, only if the state has seen 28 days without a case of community transmission. (So, that is really what the rules were before, given NSW recorded a mystery case yesterday.)

The same rules apply in Victoria. Yesterday, Victoria recorded 15 new coronavirus cases of which eight had no known source. We will likely find out how many of today's seven cases are without a known source at today's daily update. The text under the map reads: "Victoria: Remains closed until community transmission is under control (including whether there have been any unlinked cases in the previous 28 days)."


I find it dubious that Queensland are treating a historic case with infection date 8 weeks ago (added to numbers yesterday) as being new community transmission occurring yesterday! This sort of illogical reset means we will never reopen.
 

lovetravellingoz

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If we are waiting on the 19/10, then the clock on track and trace starts on 3/10 (the 48 hour delay) or 5/10. So today’s number is less meaningful......sigh. One to four more practice days......
It is not practice. It is driving down the infections so that the targets become achievable.

I say infections as due to asymptomatic spread, and/ or people who just choose to not be tested, there will be infected people who do not present for testing. So the true number of infected people now is greater than the case numbers.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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It is not practice. It is driving down the infections so that the targets become achievable.

I say infections as due to asymptomatic spread, and/ or people who just choose to not be tested, there will be infected people who do not present for testing. So the true number of infected people now is greater than the case numbers.
It is practice for the purposes of meeting roadmap relaxation requirements.
 

Lynda2475

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as relating to the Qld/NSW Border will be also probably subject to the silent rule of needing to link cases within 48 hours. Clock starts tomorrow.
But the one non hotel quarantine case yesterday was a historic case i.e. the person had antibodies showing infection 8 weeks ago, and is no longer contagious. Genomic testing takes longer than 48 hours so they wont be able to link it by tomorrow, but since its an old case added tgo reporting and not some new mystery case acquired within the last incubation period, it shouldn't be a trigger for setting the counter. We should be currently at 6 days.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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If 14 days quarantine is deemed sufficient for overseas arrivals, anyone who tests positive and close contacts - why does Qld require the whole of NSW wait 28 days with no mystery cases?
There have been rare cases of being infectious even about 21 days later.

My guess is to cover off an asymptomatic not getting tested and the hopefully the next person not being asymptomatic and getting tested.
 

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