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Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

SydneySwan

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Daily cases now at the 14 day average. You really want the daily cases to be less than the average. Has a plateau been reached?
 

lovetravellingoz

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Well cases have been essentially going sideways for almost the last fortnight now, rather than down. Though having said that with lower numbers it is easier for daily cases to bounce around more. Having said that the trend of the last 4 days is not good, but one needs to wary of reacting to any such short period.

The flattening of the curves while expected, is none the less frustrating. We really need now to break back into single digit cases consistently rather than just the once so far. I was hopeful of being consistently being in single digits by the end of Sept. Alas not.

With the easing of restrictions commencing on Monday (Mainly more people back to work, but with some more social and other mixing allowed) one would at this stage say that it has been prudent to not this week have already gone to Step 3 restrictions in Melbourne, or other relaxations like dining at restaurants, like some were starting to demand.

The cases found by testing will not after all be all the actual infections as there are still the asymptomatic etc. So actual infections would be say 2 to 4 times higher?

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The 7 day average shows a plateauing.

1601511588200.png
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Daily cases now at the 14 day average. You really want the daily cases to be less than the average. Has a plateau been reached?
It is a rolling average. so if there is more than 3 more days in the 10s, then the average will go up.

given today’s double digit, Melbourne/Victoria is a “hotspot” again.......shows how 3 days might not be enough to be long lasting measure.....sigh.
 

jakeseven7

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It is a rolling average. so if there is more than 3 more days in the 10s, then the average will go up.

given today’s double digit, Melbourne/Victoria is a “hotspot” again.......shows how 3 days might not be enough to be long lasting measure.....sigh.
As the numbers are in the teens it becomes much more important the break down of where the numbers are coming from, are they known and are they already contained - rather than the absolutes.
 

Lynda2475

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NSW being pressured to open up to Vic, however if NSW open up to Vic before Qld open up to NSW you can bet Qld will delay yet again. I did like ScoMO telling Qld they wont be permitted ot be part of the NZ bubble until they open up to other states :)
 

jakeseven7

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NSW being pressured to open up to Vic, however if NSW open up to Vic before Qld open up to NSW you can bet Qld will delay yet again. I did like ScoMO telling Qld they wont be permitted ot be part of the NZ bubble until they open up to other states :)
NSW is proactively planning to open up with VIC, I wouldn't call them under pressure. NSW has been the most pragmatic in this area. There is expected to be an announcement on Regional VIC / NSW very soon as a start.

Yes but no doubt we (QLD) will now whine about being bullied again. But I agree with the Feds on this one, if your domestic borders aren't open you should definitely not have your international ports open.
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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As the numbers are in the teens it becomes much more important the break down of where the numbers are coming from, are they known and are they already contained - rather than the absolutes.
I understand the logic of what you say, but that wasn’t really stated in those terms at the time......in respect of the hotspot definition.

NZ will need to know the full details of hotspot and apparently States will need to sign up to receive NZ travel bubble status (setting aside likely domestic transfers of NZ). Also for practical purposes NZ will also have to sign up to some version of hotspot and leave behind their 1 mystery case lockdown reflex action.
 

Lynda2475

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NSW is proactively planning to open up with VIC, I wouldn't call them under pressure. NSW has been the most pragmatic in this area. There is expected to be an announcement on Regional VIC / NSW any day now as a start.
Regional NSW border towns are already open to Regional Vic border towns (100 km). My comment was based on an interview with our Health Minister this morning where he said there was pressure coming from Vic to open up more, he said it was premature to open up further to Vic until they have better demonstrated their ability to manage case numbers once restrictions are eased.

I agree Glady has been the most pragmatic premier throughout the whole pandemic. She was very clear in yesterdays presser that she has no confidence that states who have used border closure as their main measure of controlling Covid19 i.e. WA, Tas, NT and Qld haven't really tested their track, trace and contain capabilities. She rightly said because NSW has remained open to everyone except Vic (and were last to close to them) we have actually done real world pressure testing of our capabilities and that is more telling than saying we have zero cases but didnt let anyone in.
 

lovetravellingoz

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As the numbers are in the teens it becomes much more important the break down of where the numbers are coming from, are they known and are they already contained - rather than the absolutes.
While I agree and the unknown cases has been continuing down, the geographic locations over the last weekish has been a lot of single cases popping up in new postcodes.

My postcode for example had no cases for over a fortnight, and then 3 days ago 1 case popped up (not aged care). And then yesterday another 2 (quite probably linked).


Without having seen the breakdown of today's cases the aged care sector surprisingly remains the main driver.

From the 29th.

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dajop

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Without having seen the breakdown of today's cases the aged care sector surprisingly remains the main driver.
There must be nuances in even looking at cases in aged care sector that we don't see in the gross numbers (i.e. residents vs staff, as the former are not circulating in the community, but the latter are).
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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Has NSW Health got caught up by the shenanigans? Starting to add too many qualifiers perhaps.


There have been no recent locally acquired #COVID19 cases in NSW in the last 24 hours. NSW has reported one case, believed to be an old case, which will be added to the total number of cases today. Two cases of returned travellers in hotel quarantine were also diagnosed.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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NSW mystery case watch.

Still no change ... I'm guessing since 25/9 report.

- 1 in the last 14 days
- 2 in the period 15-28 days
- 28 older than 28 days and since Crossroads emerged
NSW mystery case watch.....update??? Lol

Still no change ... I'm guessing since 25/9 report.

- 1 in the last 14 days
- 2 in the period 15-28 days
- 28 older than 28 days and since Crossroads emerged
 

antycbr

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NSW mystery case watch.....update??? Lol

Still no change ... I'm guessing since 25/9 report.

- 1 in the last 14 days
- 2 in the period 15-28 days
- 28 older than 28 days and since Crossroads emerged
If Dr Young can make it up as she goes, Dr Chant can do the exact same thing,

In the meantime, the economic damage is being borne by the tourism industry, and in particular in Queensland who are net importers of tourists from NSW.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Extra info about today’s NSW case

The locally acquired case is a man in his 50s from South Western Sydney. As the case was not previously diagnosed, it is included in the total numbers for NSW.






Indications (including a repeat negative swab test, positive serology results that show he has an immune response to the virus and a history of illness 2 months) are that it is an old case most likely acquired when the virus was circulating at low levels in SW Sydney around July.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Some salient points from from Allen Cheng today:

Chadstone. 8 recent cases lined to fresh food at the Chadstone Shopping Centre. (You can see some of that on the hotspot DHHS page)

Frankston. Family household outbreak. Also about 8. One case linked to Chadstone.

Anglesea; Second sewage positive test (Note that a non-infectious person could be generating this).

Unknown/Mystery Cases: Have been steadily decreasing. Recently have been in 14 different LGA's (as per the point I made just earlier).
 

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