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Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

HappyFlyerFamily

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For some reason WA has not revealed it’s numbers for today yet.

So far 13 new cases, including 1 in international quarantine
 

MelMel

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If my LGA has an increase in cases, but it's not listed as a high risk location, does that mean it's likely it's either a returned traveller in quarantine and with a residential address in the LGA, or someone who's not out and about, such as in aged care?
It could also be a retrospective allocation of cases. My LGA went up 5 cases yesterday but no change in active cases. Presumably historical cases?
 

jase05

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The only cases SA have had in weeks are those travellers in Quarantine. Yet the Govt wants to extend emergency powers for another 6 months. Completely unwarranted. As they have shown they can act quickly during first wave then even with a next outbreak they simply can not justify allowing their ‘appointees’ to take on police powers.
I might be wrong but I’m pretty sure it has been mentioned that to get some of these laws pushed through parliament quickly they had to be attached to the State of Emergency Act. Therefore if the SOE is lifted powers such as Social distancing laws, crowds at sporting events, pub/restaurants capacity can’t legally be enforced as it stands
 

jeza

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lovetravellingoz

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Salient points from the daily Vic DHHs Report:

Media Release
24 September 2020

Victoria has recorded 12 new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 20,105.

The overall total has increased by five due to seven cases being reclassified.

Within Victoria, eight of the new cases are linked to outbreaks or complex cases and four are under investigation.

Of today’s eight cases linked to outbreaks, five are linked to aged care (Estia Keilor, Edenvale Manor and Princeton View), one is linked to an existing outbreak (Casey community) and two are linked to complex cases which remain under investigation.

Of today’s 12 new cases, there are two cases in Brimbank and Moonee Valley and single cases in Casey, Hume, Melton, Monash and Wyndham. Three cases are subject to further investigation.

There have been two new deaths from COVID-19 reported since yesterday. Two women aged in their 80s.


.....


  • 18 active cases are currently linked to the Casey community outbreak (total cases: 44) My comment, so one new case in the Casey Cluster
 

lovetravellingoz

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If my LGA has an increase in cases, but it's not listed as a high risk location, does that mean it's likely it's either a returned traveller in quarantine and with a residential address in the LGA, or someone who's not out and about, such as in aged care?
If you are from Melbourne and you are looking at new daily cases for your LGA then for some time there has not been any international returned travellers in Victoria as Victoria is not currently accepting international travellers..

Cases are now few. Aged care (this includes workers as well as residents) is still one of the largest cohorts that new cases occur in (See my post just above).

Over the last 14 days about 10% of new cases have had transmission from an unknown source


With respect to Cases by LGA, the Vic DHHS website states:

Cases by Local Government Area

Note:
  • Residential location is the residential address provided when the case is notified.
  • This is not where they were infected and may not be where the case currently resides.
  • Numbers are correct as of 11.59pm last night but are subject to change as cases are followed up and data is analysed. This can include changes to residential addresses following case interviews. 
  • The last column shows the number of current active cases in an LGA.  Active cases are defined as someone who has tested positive, is currently in isolation and being monitored by the Department and who has not yet recovered.
 

jakeseven7

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Cases are now few. Aged care (this includes workers as well as residents) is still one of the largest cohorts that new cases occur in (See my post just above).
Yup, and also where a lot of the current active cases are. Because of the way that aged care homes are cleared by the DHHS from the active case number that metric will come hurtling down in jumps as well (as it has been) as people recover.

Soon Melbourne will (hopefully) be where Greater Sydney was just a few weeks ago in terms of active case load and new cases.
 

lovetravellingoz

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lovetravellingoz

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While averages keep pushing down, including importantly for unknown cases, and progress is better than the original targetscases per day have been flattish for about a week above ten.

So one suspects with the extra relaxations in addition to those shown already in Step 2 for Melbourne that have been mooted to be announced on Sunday that with this level of cases that these extra relaxations will not include anything substantive in the way of social indoor mixing to be resumed within the week. Guests in the home, people seated indoors in cafes (or even outdoors) etc.

However one suspects that it will allow more non-social situations with low or nil mixing in public to be resumed, though perhaps not fully, including in select workforces and industries . ie Major construction which is currently at 25% might say go to a higher level of staff being able to work. Private outdoor gardeners (ie Jims Mowing etc) to be able to resume. etc More health services.


Update on Vic Graphs:

New cases per day:
1600991487106.png

Trigger graphs:


1600991313440.png

1600991350848.png

1600991380981.png
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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While averages keep pushing down, including importantly for unknown cases, and progress is better than the original targetscases per day have been flattish for about a week above ten.

So one suspects with the extra relaxations in addition to those shown already in Step 2 for Melbourne that have been mooted to be announced on Sunday that with this level of cases that these extra relaxations will not include anything substantive in the way of social indoor mixing to be resumed within the week. Guests in the home, people seated indoors in cafes (or even outdoors) etc.

However one suspects that it will allow more non-social situations with low or nil mixing in public to be resumed, though perhaps not fully, including in select workforces and industries . ie Major construction which is currently at 25% might say go to a higher level of staff being able to work. Private outdoor gardeners (ie Jims Mowing etc) to be able to resume. etc More health services.


Update on Vic Graphs:

New cases per day:
View attachment 228607

Trigger graphs:


View attachment 228604

View attachment 228605

View attachment 228606
I think we can now take for granted that Step 2 for Melbourne probably won’t happen early and will be announced around the review date 28 September and more than likely start after 28 September.

Which is a great shame.

Given the current situation and that it’s unlikely that rolling averages and number of mystery cases in the preceding 14 days are unlikely to go up, the only measures that are meaningful are those for Step 3 Melbourne (ie Statewide under 5, both 14-day rolling average and number of mystery cases in the preceding 14 days.
 

Lynda2475

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AP whinging about removal of ADF from Qld/NSW border, claiming to be singled out when ADF are remaining on the Vic border. She doesn't seem to understand that unlike NSW and SA she doesn't have a land border with Victoria which is the only state with material numbers of mystery cases. I'm sure ScoMO will withdrawal ADF for Vic borders too once local spread is shown to be being managed well. Queensland hard border with NSW doesn't meet the federal definition of hotspot so therefore isn't eligible for federal support.

We haven't had an update yet today, but the mystery ICU case from yesterday is sure to see Queensland reset the 28 day clock on NSW.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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I think we can now take for granted that Step 2 for Melbourne probably won’t happen early
Yes Dan said early in the week that he will not make any further announcements on relaxations this week till Sunday.

However in recent times there have been a number of relaxations already made for Melbourne to Step 1 (ie Car Handbook, Servicing, Repairs and Recalls = More mechanics etc have returned to work), or have been added to Step 2 (ie Dog groomers).




and will be announced around the review date 28 September and more than likely start after 28 September.

Which is a great shame.

Given the current situation and that it’s unlikely that rolling averages and number of mystery cases in the preceding 14 days are unlikely to go up, the only measures that are meaningful are those for Step 3 Melbourne (ie Statewide under 5, both 14-day rolling average and number of mystery cases in the preceding 14 days.
From what Dan has stated this week I think it is very liked that on Sunday when he announces Step 2 for Melbourne as scheduled, that he will also announce some additional relaxations that will commence before 26 Oct.

ie Not Step 3, but more than Step 2. My guess is that this will be mainly, if not totally workplace related. But maybe more health services resuming too.
 
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N860CR

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NSW 4 new cases
-3 in international quarantine
-1 mystery case announced yesterday
This isn’t the first time that somebody who is acutely unwell from other issues has presented to hospital and been admitted then discovered to have coronavirus. Could be quite the coincidence... but there are probably more underlying issues.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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NSW down to:

4 close contact venues, most recent 16/9 Campbelltown/Glen Alpine
9 casual contact venues, most recent 18/9 Picnic Point/Panania
6 unidentified casual contact taxi trips.


Qld has no more contact tracing venues

But 1 alert for casual contacts.

Public Health Alert: 14 September 2020

Anyone who has been to these suburbs in the last 14 days should monitor their health and if they develop any COVID-19 symptoms, even mild, get tested and isolate until they receive their test result.

Goodna
Redbank
Redbank Plains

 

RAM

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I wasn’t aware of that so I looked around and found this. It seems a fair point.


'No indication' Ruby Princess medics source of Newmarch House outbreak

NSW Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant says there is "no indication" that private medical staff who attended Newmarch House after testing the Ruby Princess crew brought the virus to the aged care facility. Two Aspen Medical staff who were involved in the testing of the embattled cruise ship later worked at the facility in Sydney’s west, where 16 residents have since died amid a coronavirus outbreak. Dr Chant said there was no issue with procedure and NSW Health understood the virus was brought into Newmarch House by the original aged care worker. “In terms of workers we have no indications that they were in any way the source of infection,” she said. “If every time a healthcare worker cared for a patient with COVID was then required to take 14 days we wouldn’t have health care workers to care for patients.”
No indication that they did nor that they didn't. He does not say they did not though.

Very clever deflection though. The outbreak quite possibly occured before they attended (I believe they were there due to existing CV spread) but then they could have brought in more viral matter & increased its spread.

So Dr Kerry Chant presented some spin in her answer - she did not answer the question asked but rather the question she would have preferred to be asked.

Point I was making originally is "How advisable is it to send staff within 36 hours from one highly contagious location (Ruby Princess) to a nursing home.

Fed & State guidelines adopted belatedly BAN nursing home staff from working at more than one location.

Yet Aspen Medical (major Liberal Party donor) portrayed as 'the experts' did just that. Newmarch House is just one instance of Aspen's risky behaviour.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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With all other States and Territories reporting no new cases, the National new cases is 18, including 3 in international quarantine
 

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