Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I don’t recall if I posted this or not at the time.
Screenshot from DHHS in Victoria taken on 30th June. Just prior to the stage 3 lockdown announced for hot spot suburbs.
Previous day there was 71 new cases. 1 in hotel quarantine, 14 linked to known clusters.
The other 50 odd cases were found through mass testing in the hotspots and elsewhere. In other words, community transmission unknown.

The DHHS was advising everyone it’s “business as usual”
NSW take note.......
View attachment 223923

I don’t recall you posting it before.

NSW is currently tracking between 10-20 community transmission (ie unknown source) in total every daily report if you used the Crossroad Hotel as the baseline for the beginning of the new wave.

I think dajop did a nice little comparison of Vic actives cases trend v NSW active cases trend and that analysis shows NSW slowly breaking away from the trend.
I’ll repost it if I find It tonight because it give some comfort NSW has a better outcome (relatively).

 

[antycbr]

You cut out the second paragraph of my reply which went on to talk about Melbourne Ports. Largest system of ports for import / export in the whole country, has facilities/machinery not available in other cities, technology and forwarder capabilities set up for scale and container types critical for goods inwards that keep the country running.

That is why the Feds are involved now, it’s a matter of national security. WA especially should be worried.

There’s also major implications for Tasmania. The vast majority of goods coming into Tasmania come from Melbourne based distribution centres and are then trans shipped on either the Spirit or Toll shipping to Devonport or Burnie. The Vic Premier mentioned supply chain issues today and I expect Tasmania is one of those considerations.

 

[dajop]

Prior to time when todays announcement comes into effect, no visitor rule applied for Melbourne/Mitchell shire (except for care or babysittting). 1 visitor rule for Geelong/Colac Otway/Surfcoast/Moorabool/Golden Plains/Queenscliffe. 5 visitor rule for rest of VIctoria.

Well thanks for the clarification, its hard to track all the change.....then that just solidified my point. 0 visitors........so no enforcement perhaps?

My mistake, Geelong area had 0 visitor rule as well, introduced on 30 July.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Just looking at some figures of active cases, NSW has got to be worried, an uncanny coincidence.. Hopefully the divergence today from the pattern can be sustained.

VIC active cases at 5 day intervals from 15 Jun: 49, 110, 163 then +3 days 231
NSW active cases at 5 day intervals from 17 Jul: 49, 110, 160 then today (+3 days) 203

What are the numbers for the next three days? If you have them.

Today was a bad day for NSW with now upto 11 being potential community transmission (unknown source), including 6 under investigation since Crossroad Hotel emerged.

Victoria had recorded 163 active cases on 25 Jun, then respectively the number of actives cases were 183. 204, 231, then 288, 321, 370.
NSW had recorded 160 cases on 27 Jul, then 172, 188 and 203

If I added the daily new NSW cases (which gives a higher number than the day’s active case total because old inactives/deaths are deducted) ....

Vic 163, 183, 204, 231, 288, 321, 370.
NSW 160, 174, 193, 211, 242, 259, 271 (Today)

 

[jakeseven7]

I don’t recall you posting it before.

NSW is currently tracking between 10-20 community transmission (ie unknown source) in total every daily report if you used the Crossroad Hotel as the baseline for the beginning of the new wave.

I think dajop did a nice little comparison of Vic actives cases trend v NSW active cases trend and that analysis shows NSW slowly breaking away from the trend.
I’ll repost it if I find It tonight because it give some comfort NSW has a better outcome (relatively).

I don’t think NSW should be taking any comfort whatsoever comparing their numbers in time to Melbournes, they are in a completely different situation at a different time and the virus only needs a few windows to explode quickly, which may still occur at any time.

And anyway if we are going for zero community transmission nationally, NSW needs to shut down as well, sooner rather than later. If there is one thing we’ve learned, small incremental tweaks to restrictions like Vic did (and Nsw is doing now) don’t seem to work.

Post automatically merged: Aug 2, 2020

There’s also major implications for Tasmania. The vast majority of goods coming into Tasmania come from Melbourne based distribution centres and are then trans shipped on either the Spirit or Toll shipping to Devonport or Burnie. The Vic Premier mentioned supply chain issues today and I expect Tasmania is one of those considerations.

Huge deal. They will have to keep the ports running even if the Army comes in and supervises. Period.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I don’t think NSW should be taking any comfort whatsoever comparing their numbers in time to Melbournes, they are in a completely different situation at a different time and the virus only needs a few windows to explode quickly, which may still occur at any time.

And anyway if we are going for zero community transmission nationally, NSW needs to shut down as well, sooner rather than later. If there is one thing we’ve learned, small incremental tweaks to restrictions like Vic did (and Nsw is doing now) don’t seem to work.

Well we have our difference of opinion on this point You already feel NSW and Qld are lost.

I feel a low total community transmission figure (In conjunction with low generation backlog) is manageable and still quite possible to get back to zero.

If we are never able to do it, then we will always be the proverbial guinea pig on the treadmill and I’d rather think and be hopefully we are able to rise to meet the challenge.

The task is not that hard (tongue firmly in cheek), find all backlog generations, give enough publicity so there is sufficiently low enough movement to get to the last generation and give enough publicity so that the unknown source is either found or might stay still until they are not infectious.

The only flaw is a NSW Health Minister giving a recent gathering exemption to celebrate a religious day.

 

[Hvr]

Huge deal. They will have to keep the ports running even if the Army comes in and supervises. Period.

Actually, I'd prefer that the Navy ran the ports, they actually know how to drive and manoeuvre ships. Have ABF quarantine people ensuring that proper cleaning procedures are adhered to to mitigate the potential for importing the virus and its spread. The Navy and ABF do complement each other in some tasks.

I am amazed how many people only refer to the Army when referring to military personnel, there are three services, Navy, Army and Air Force with discrete competencies as well as general competencies. Where there is a specific competency required that is the domain of one of the services then they should be involved.

 

[drron]

The ABF have made it quite clear in their submission to the Ruby Princess inquiry that their job is to police the border to identify prohibited persons and contraband so the they do not enter Australia.Health and Quarantine are not their responsibilty in regards to this pandemic.

 

[SydneySwan]

On ABC news tonight looks like the Fed Gov may now keep the existing rate of Jobkeeper for VIC while continuing on to cut rates for other states. Seems fair.

I wonder. This will trigger endless arguments as all the other states mount their cases for keeping the higher rate. States that have kept COVID out like WA and SA will probably see this as VIC being rewarded for incompetence at their expense.

I would see a fairer solution being one national rate and if that rate is cut as proposed at end of September and VIC feels it needs to be kept at the old rate then VIC state government can top it up itself.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Actually, I'd prefer that the Navy ran the ports, they actually know how to drive and manoeuvre ships. Have ABF quarantine people ensuring that proper cleaning procedures are adhered to to mitigate the potential for importing the virus and its spread. The Navy and ABF do complement each other in some tasks.

I am amazed how many people only refer to the Army when referring to military personnel, there are three services, Navy, Army and Air Force with discrete competencies as well as general competencies. Where there is a specific competency required that is the domain of one of the services then they should be involved.

Does ABF now accept responsibility for infectious disease control functions or is that Quarantine or State/Territory Health?

Post automatically merged: Aug 2, 2020

The ABF have made it quite clear in their submission to the Ruby Princess inquiry that their job is to police the border to identify prohibited persons and contraband so the they do not enter Australia.Health and Quarantine are not their responsibilty in regards to this pandemic.

Snap you beat me to it lol

 

[jakeseven7]

Well we have our difference of opinion on this point You already feel NSW and Qld are lost.

I feel a low total community transmission figure (In conjunction with low generation backlog) is manageable and still quite possible to get back to zero.

I do because I see people behaving the same way in NSW and QLD despite it being on their doorstep and also an unwillingness to do much from a NSW gov point of view except for a softly softly strategy, which doesn’t appear to have learned from what happened in VIC.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Another two Phase 2 NSW venues.....(edit: typically it should be Phase 1 without a transmission at the site, but I just re-read and it looks like Phase 2, not sure if it’s a hot take error by the blog quoted, unable to confirm yet via NSW Health channels)


Immediate isolation warning for NSW pubgoers

NSW Health has issued a warning for the state's Hunter New England region after someone positive with coronavirus visited Newcastle while infectious.
Anyone who visited Hotel Jesmond on July 29 between 7.30pm and 9.30pm and Wallsend Diggers on July 30 between 7.30pm and 9.30pm are advised to isolate immediately.
Any visitors to either of the venues should isolate at home for 14 days from the date listed and be on the lookout for COVID-19 symptoms.
"Get tested regardless of symptoms, but you must remain in isolation for the full 14 days even if your initial test is negative," NSW Health said.
"If you do develop COVID-19 symptoms, you should be retested."
The person visited Newcastle from Sydney on July 29 and July 30 while infectious.

 

[jeza]

Would be quite surprised if Ports are shut.

Experience in WA working for an export company. During the first shutdown ships from Overseas were not permitted to come into an Australian Port until 14 days after they last departed from a foreign Port, we had ships waiting at anchor to clear this waiting period.

They were also required to declare the health status of all crew & say what you like about Wharfies if they saw any sign of ill crew I reckon they would be off that ship & reporting it very quickly.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Ok let’s play word footsies...look up thesaurus.com...type in essential...what? A synonym is necessary....go figure.

or should I go with the PM “every job is essential”.



I’m fine not knowing every detail, it doesn’t make my comments invalid About today’s measure to bring a night curfew for everything but 2 reasons And whether it will solve (or will materially solve, or will be essential element in solving) the declared State of Disaster.

and to go to broad detail....Mitchell shire stay in Stage 3, only a Melbourne goes to Stage 4....please keep up.

nice to know a Q&A......will it save you from a fine, probably not - it will probably just get you into an argument if unfortunately it misrepresents the law (which unfortunately the great masses don’t get a chance to read).

I will put it another way for you then.

1/ You wanted police to arrest/fine people for buying things which at the time they were legally allowed to buy.

2/ They are now moving to tighter restrictions where things are also more black and white. Hence it will be clearer when police can arrest/detain people (The Gov will be hoping that this stricter though simpler set of restrictions will hopefully not lead to lots of arrests, but rather better compliance and thus less transmission as that is what the real goal is).

Despite you demanding police arrest/fine people when they could not ( 1/), now that they more easily can (2/) you disparage the concept.

 

[Princess Fiona]

Another two Phase 2 NSW venues.....(edit: typically it should be Phase 1 without a transmission at the site, but I just re-read and it looks like Phase 2, not sure if it’s a hot take error by the blog quoted, unable to confirm yet via NSW Health channels)


Immediate isolation warning for NSW pubgoers

NSW Health has issued a warning for the state's Hunter New England region after someone positive with coronavirus visited Newcastle while infectious.
Anyone who visited Hotel Jesmond on July 29 between 7.30pm and 9.30pm and Wallsend Diggers on July 30 between 7.30pm and 9.30pm are advised to isolate immediately.
Any visitors to either of the venues should isolate at home for 14 days from the date listed and be on the lookout for COVID-19 symptoms.
"Get tested regardless of symptoms, but you must remain in isolation for the full 14 days even if your initial test is negative," NSW Health said.
"If you do develop COVID-19 symptoms, you should be retested."
The person visited Newcastle from Sydney on July 29 and July 30 while infectious.

Has been doing the rounds on the local Facebook pages including HNE Health official Facebook page. Expect updates tomorrow re isolation. I’m personally glad that they have gone with the more stringent advice first up.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I will put it more simply for you then.

1/ You wanted police to arrest/fine people for buying things which at the time they were legally allowed to buy.

2/ They are now moving to tighter restrictions where things are also more black and white. Hence it will be clearer when police can arrest/detain people (The Gov will be hoping that this stricter though simpler set of restrictions will hopefully not lead to lots of arrests, but rather better compliance and thus less transmission as that is what the real goal is).

Despite you demanding police arrest/fine people when they could not ( 1/), now that they more easily can (2/) you disparage the concept.

I’m following the F1 race and reading your comment and not making sense of it.

I think you have raised out of context buying something in the above reply. Your prior response (with the Q&A quotes) mentions something about buying something.

When complaining about the Stage 4 curfew (not complaining about 5km rule), I have not talked about buying something.

....then I thought do you mean when doing something.....still no dice.

I'm just leaving this without a substantive reply.

You feel the Victorian Government’s Phase 4 night curfew will lessen transmission. That’s fine you are entitled to it.

I still feel the Phase 4 night curfew measure is /will be an ineffective measure, at best it’s just posturing/signaling, because when the rubber hits the road it won’t reduce transmission. If people would have shopped at night then now have to do it in the day time - more people in a compressed time. If people are going to lie to go to a visit a friend (which wouldn’t be allowed in the day or night), they will now more likely try it in the day time, but some will continue to try it at night. Police will still need to monitor 24/7.

.....anyway back to the F1.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Police will still need to monitor 24/7.

But without public transport at night, PSOs can take up duties of monitoring and enforcement. Providing much needed supplement to Victoria Police (who must be exhausted).

So indirectly, I think it will mean enhanced enforcement, and therefore reduce transmission.

 

[sinophile888]

Huge deal. They will have to keep the ports running even if the Army comes in and supervises. Period.

Or the Navy!

 

[p--and--t]

But without public transport at night, PSOs can take up duties of monitoring and enforcement. Providing much needed supplement to Victoria Police (who must be exhausted).

So indirectly, I think it will mean enhanced enforcement, and therefore reduce transmission.

And also only one person from a household is allowed to go shopping so there will be significantly less people going, at least to the one near me where most customers currently are in groups of two and three and hang around gossiping and having a coffee.etc.

Supermarket shopping will no longer be a social event. Also both majors have already started emailing out tonight urging (among other things) to use click and collect or delivery so you don't have to enter and wander the store.

 

[Pushka]

I get the feeling that bar WA and Tasmania, all States are at risk now.

In SA we had yesterday a woman who is a close contact of an isolated positive case, who attended two adult style campus, having been infectious at the time and she as close contact is now positive. How, as a close contact of a positive (returned traveller) case, she was allowed to roam without being tested, beggars belief. I'm not sure if SA Health are truly worried and using it as a threat, but if they were worried then why in heck are they allowing a crowd of I think, of 20,000 people, some of whom quite possibly, attended the colleges, to come to the football tonight?