Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

HappyFlyerFamily

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On the numbers, some jurisdiction's active are 'stabilising':

NSW has been sitting in the 330k-350k for a few days (5)
Tas had multiple consecutive days (5) with decreases
ACT had multiple consecutive days (6) with decreases

In the 'too early to tell' basket:
Vic with its first decrease two days ago followed by two days of smaller increases
Qld with its first decrease - a massive 116k (57%)
SA with its first decrease yesterday followed by a smaller increase today
NT with its first decrese today
WA with now two days of decreases
 

kyle

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So in the first year of the Pandemic Australian life expectancy increased by 0.7 years for men and women, the highest of any country. Denmark and Norway tied for second with an increase of 0.1 for men and 0.2 for women.
Is it necessarily a good thing economically as I would imagine as the person ages, the medical costs to remain living will only increase?
 

Pushka

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On the numbers, some jurisdiction's active are 'stabilising':

NSW has been sitting in the 330k-350k for a few days (5)
Tas had multiple consecutive days (5) with decreases
ACT had multiple consecutive days (6) with decreases

In the 'too early to tell' basket:
Vic with its first decrease two days ago followed by two days of smaller increases
Qld with its first decrease - a massive 116k (57%)
SA with its first decrease yesterday followed by a smaller increase today
NT with its first decrese today
WA with now two days of decreases
SA has been under its 7 day average for a few days. And more people recovered than became infected. Marshall tentatively called it yesterday. In Olympics speak - did we peak too early?

Comments on FB are interesting. They say that people aren't reporting positives on RATS. So using Trumps claim, don't test and infection rates fall. Maybe that's true but it's hard to escape noticing that slowly the hospital admissions are likewise slowly falling. Which of course I point out.
 

jakeseven7

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SA has been under its 7 day average for a few days. And more people recovered than became infected. Marshall tentatively called it yesterday. In Olympics speak - did we peak too early?

Comments on FB are interesting. They say that people aren't reporting positives on RATS. So using Trumps claim, don't test and infection rates fall. Maybe that's true but it's hard to escape noticing that slowly the hospital admissions are likewise slowly falling. Which of course I point out.

From our experience, we are finding most people are telling us they have reported their RAT's to the government (who knows if that is lip service of course) but one interesting trend we are seeing is many are not bothering to test children when they are in an 'infected' household - a lot of families are just assuming the kid(s) have covid and managing it how they see fit.

Many don't want to subject the kids to the testing protocol, RATs still too hard to find and many just don't 'see the point as we know they've got it'.
 

Pushka

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From our experience, we are finding most people are telling us they have reported their RAT's to the government (who knows if that is lip service of course) but one interesting trend we are seeing is many are not bothering to test children when they are in an 'infected' household - a lot of families are just assuming the kid(s) have covid and managing it how they see fit.

Many don't want to subject the kids to the testing protocol, RATs still too hard to find and many just don't 'see the point as we know they've got it'.
I have observed this unwillingness to test children too....yet grandma was asked to take him twice in the early days 😂. This time it's a quarantine anyway as close contact so I guess the outcome is the same esp for those too young to be vaccinated.
 
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MooTime

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I have observed this unwillingness to test children too....yet grandma was asked to do it twice in the early days 😂. This time it's a quarantine anyway as close contact so I guess the outcome is the same esp for those too young to be vaccinated.
Too true, tested our 2.5yo recently, getting the bud on his nose, no thanks again, if he's unwell, we'll look after him just like he's just....'unwell' lot of TLC, stay at home, some backyard fresh air & be done with it, gov really doesn't need to know or jab him up the nose time again & again.
His childcare had numerous covid appearences, so far lucky not our exact window, but ah what kenya do? just get on with life.

I know some parents are more concerned, so each to their own I have to say.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Brad Hazzard in the NSW presser just now saying that they have examples of people submitting false positive RAT results via Service NSW as a prank, and noted that he has personally had a couple of notifications for himself having had positive RAT test outcomes, submitted by pranksters
Does that infer the pranksters has his personal mobile number or has hacked his Service NSW app or something else?
 

dairyfloss

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Does that infer the pranksters has his personal mobile number or has hacked his Service NSW app or something else?
For perhaps obvious reasons he didn't detail how they did it... I expect it was via the website rather than the app, and they just used whatever info was in the public domain to register, e.g. public office contact number & public e-mail (both often listed for members - even if attended to by others)

Adding, from Service NSW site:

What you need​

  • a MyServiceNSW Account (optional)
  • the date of the positive rapid antigen test result
  • name, date of birth and postcode of the person tested
  • your contact details.
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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Victoria declares Code Brown as health system buckles under Omicron wave​

Non-essential services could be deferred and healthcare workers may have their leave postponed as part of Code Brown in Victorian hospitals, called by the Victorian government.
The Code Brown for the state's health system formalises and streamlines emergency management and is a response to the growing number of people in hospitals.
It will affect all metropolitan hospitals and six regional hospitals. It’s expected to last up to six weeks and will come into force at midday on Wednesday.
It means non-urgent services can be deferred on a hospital by hospital basis. It also means hospitals can ask staff to cancel their upcoming leave.
As it stands, there are nearly 5,000 healthcare workers unavailable to work in the state system due to a COVID infection or a close contact.
Many hospitals and providers have already asked some staff to return from holidays early to assist with the unprecedented demand caused by the Omicron variant.

VIC: 'Our hospital system is under extreme pressure'​

That's according to the Deputy Premier, who is expanding on the Code Brown announcement we heard a short time ago.

Mr Merlino says they've "reached a point in our health system where it's juggling severe workforce shortages".

"Alongside that, an extraordinary workforce that are absolutely exhausted. So we've always known that this would be the case, that as we move away from lockdowns and remote learning there will be a strain on our hospital system and we are seeing that play out with significant numbers via the Omicron wave.

"This is all happening alongside the continued need to treat patients with urgent and emergency needs."

VIC: The Code Brown declaration will apply to all metropolitan hospitals and six regional hospitals​

Is there anywhere we can find the list of regional hospitals affected by the code brown?

-Hospital Info
Mr Merlino says it will apply to:

  • Barwon Health
  • Grampians Health
  • Bendigo Health
  • Goulburn Valley Health
  • Albury Wodonga Health and
  • La Trobe Regional Hospital
"So this coordinated approach will help ease the pressure on individual hospitals by better sharing the load across our system," Mr Merlino says.


per ABC blog
 

lovetravellingoz

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On the numbers, some jurisdiction's active are 'stabilising':


On the case numbers yes, but at least in Vic and NSW those numbers are more questionable than ever.

Recently the PCR cases will have been way under as many could not get tested, and of those that did many did not get a result as many samples could not be tested within 7 days. So many PCR swabs that were taken may well have been unknown infections.

And then with RATs in scarce supply many who would have done a RAT's test could not get one. And of those that did who knows what % bother to report.

So we could have had much higher case numbers a week or so back and already be really much lower. So active "infections" may already be well down (we hope so anyway).

But equally people seem to be more and more not bothering with either PCR or RATs tests unless they are quite ill. So as an indicator of the trend infections it may still be under what it would have been last year.


The various hospital measures will probably provide a better trendline, though these are lag indications on infections.
 
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andye

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On the case numbers yes, but at least in Vic and NSW those numbers are more questionable than ever.

Recently the PCR cases will have been way under as many could not get tested, and of those that did many did not get a result as many samples could not be tested within 7 days. So many PCR swabs that were taken may well have been unknown infections.

And then with RATs in scarce supply many who would have done a RAT's test could not get one. And of those that did who knows what % bother to report.

So we could have had much higher case numbers a week or so back and already be really much lower. So active "infections" may already be well down (we hope so anyway).

But equally people seem to be more and more not bothering with either PCR or RATs tests unless they are quite ill. So as an indicator of infections it may still be under what it would have been last year.


The various hospital measures will probably provide a better trendline, though these are lag indications on infections.
It looks like NSW hospital occupancies (not strictly admissions) are only increasingly linearly (or maybe just under) rather than exponentially which is hopeful. Probably too early to say about ICU but they seem to be linear too
 

lovetravellingoz

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It looks like NSW hospital occupancies (not strictly admissions) are only increasingly linearly (or maybe just under) rather than exponentially which is hopeful. Probably too early to say about ICU but they seem to be linear too

Yes both look at present to be linear. Maybe both nudging down a little.

Note that Gauteng, shown below, is in South Africa.

1642468031236.png



1642468063304.png
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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On the case numbers yes, but at least in Vic and NSW those numbers are more questionable than ever.

Recently the PCR cases will have been way under as many could not get tested, and of those that did many did not get a result as many samples could not be tested within 7 days. So many PCR swabs that were taken may well have been unknown infections.

And then with RATs in scarce supply many who would have done a RAT's test could not get one. And of those that did who knows what % bother to report.

So we could have had much higher case numbers a week or so back and already be really much lower. So active "infections" may already be well down (we hope so anyway).

But equally people seem to be more and more not bothering with either PCR or RATs tests unless they are quite ill. So as an indicator of infections it may still be under what it would have been last year.


The various hospital measures will probably provide a better trendline, though these are lag indications on infections.
Point taken.

The PCR testing queue are getting much more manageable. As the current rhetoric goes 'everyone who needs a test, can get a test'. Not sure how covid staff shortages are impacting on these services, but one would guess its affected similarly.

I think the current active definition is geared to be shorter than the previous 28-day definition. eg NSW - "Active COVID-19 cases are defined as people who have tested positive for COVID-19, are in isolation and are being clinically monitored by NSW Health. Cases are considered active for 14 days after their symptom onset date. Cases who have been hospitalised are considered active until they are discharged." (https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx)

To me the point of active is when we see the peak of concurrent infections which to me is the timeline of the greatest impact on hospitals and ICU (of course with hospital and ICU expected to be lagging)
 

jrfsp

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Lynda2475

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Ummm, so the NSW health regulations do not apply to you?

I will happily show my vax status if that is a requirement to enter a venue (noting you do not need to be vaccinated to enter any supermarket), but checking in to pick up take-out or spend under 5 minutes in store fully masked and using self serve check-out achieves nothing.

The supermarket themselves no longer care, as they have remove all enforcement, previously they had a staff member verifying you had checked in.

Problem is he got rid of all of it.

Not quite - the requirement to check in in health care settings and aged care was never removed.

Brad Hazzard in the NSW presser just now saying that they have examples of people submitting false positive RAT results via Service NSW as a prank, and noted that he has personally had a couple of notifications for himself having had positive RAT test outcomes, submitted by pranksters

The other reason for false RAT positives being reported is fraud, that some people are wanting the government payment, as it can be higher than their usual wage if a casual employee without many shifts.

On the case numbers yes, but at least in Vic and NSW those numbers are more questionable than ever.

Always spreading doom and gloom. RATS may be hard to come by in retail in some areas, but are available from test sites if you are symptomatic. Unless living in a household with a positive person, there is no reason for asymptomatic people to get tested.

It looks like NSW hospital occupancies (not strictly admissions) are only increasingly linearly (or maybe just under) rather than exponentially which is hopeful. Probably too early to say about ICU but they seem to be linear too

The weekly surveillance reports support this, the latest one pointing out that admission rate (as a percentage of active cases) is much lower than Delta. The number of infections is higher, but the number of serious adverse health outcomes is lower.
 

Lynda2475

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Interesting that NSW is projected to have more hospitalizations than London which has a greater population and lower vaccination rate, is that due to less immunity from prior infection?

I wouldn't trust that source if that is what they are claiming.

At peak of Omicron in England there were 17,120 people hospitalized with Covid, NSW is currently sitting at 2,850 so I call BS.

Current hospitalizations in NSW would have to be growing much faster than they are to hit 6000 in-patients, NSW govt was projecting a peak of 4k by end of Jan, and we may not even get there.
 
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jrfsp

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lovetravellingoz

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Point taken.

The PCR testing queue are getting much more manageable. As the current rhetoric goes 'everyone who needs a test, can get a test'. Not sure how covid staff shortages are impacting on these services, but one would guess its affected similarly.

I think the current active definition is geared to be shorter than the previous 28-day definition. eg NSW - "Active COVID-19 cases are defined as people who have tested positive for COVID-19, are in isolation and are being clinically monitored by NSW Health. Cases are considered active for 14 days after their symptom onset date. Cases who have been hospitalised are considered active until they are discharged." (https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx)

To me the point of active is when we see the peak of concurrent infections which to me is the timeline of the greatest impact on hospitals and ICU (of course with hospital and ICU expected to be lagging)


Yes hopefully true infections per day have now dropped in Vic and NSW due to the testing system having been so overwhelmed a week or two back. ie That would mean that a week ago that active cases were actually higher than recorded and so may have dipped now.


So hopefully cases recorded today is a more accurate representation today than it has been and hopefully all PCR swabs now get tested again. For example not long ago it was announced in Vic that 91,000 PCR test swabs were not tested as they the samples were older than 7 days.
 
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