Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

drron

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And the local news had a bit of the local Covid Commander talking about the covidiot who caused the Southern tassie lockdown.They have asked the police to consider issuing a summons as the Magistrate can issue a fine of $30000 or 6 months in the slammer.For this fellow probably appropriate.
 

Quickstatus

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And NSW has officially hit DD 80%
"Average 80%"

Most of regional NSW are not as are several Greater Sydney LGA

I counted only 16 LGA who are >= 80% out of 130 LGA in NSW.

Of the 30 Greater Sydney LGA, only 11 are over 80%, 2 are not even 70% - Sydney and Randwick

It is actually just a number borne out of modelling and decisions made around that modelling data.
And nothing to do with actual vaccination activity at the local level
It also has nothing to do with the actual science around a 2Jab technique. It is well known that the second jab takes about 2-4 weeks to be effective. However a person can get the 2nd jab in the morning and be immediately confirmed as fully vaxxed and partake in "fully vaxxed activities" on the same day. Serologically that person is no different to a 1Jab person.

The lockdown has gone on long enough for many reasons but let's not be naive to think the 80% has any magical power to it. It is just a modelling number.

Interesting to re-read to Doherty report and compare the predictions with the actuality of today.
 
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Meggsy

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We bailed out of Hobart today and headed home to the Gold Coast earlier than planned. Thankfully we did as the QLD government is declaring southern Tasmania a hotspot as of 1am tonight, even though there has still only been the one case in Hobart. Hobart CBD was a ghost town this morning
 

drron

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Are the Tassie magistrates a slap on the wrist or max punishment types?
Not sure of those in Hobart but the cheif here in Launceston when someone comes before him for escaping HQ he remands them in custody for 14 days for their next appearance.Seems fair.Don't like HQ,a cell then is perfect.
However this couldn't be done with the Hobart fellow being positive.
 

Quickstatus

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couldn't be done with the Hobart fellow being positive
Im not sure there is such a thing as effective custodial quarantine - effective in preventing spread. .
Solitary confinement perhaps?, but in a pandemic you could quickly run out of room.

Could find an island and put all the quarantines there. 🤣
Bruny Island used to be such a place - as island off an island off a larger (mainland) island.
 

Lynda2475

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It is actually just a number borne out of modelling

No it is the proportion of the total population over 16 who have had 2 jabs, not a model (not like all the virus spread models whichbvastly over estimated cases and deaths). Not all LGAs have the same number of people, populations in most regional LGAs are a fraction of those in the densist Syndey LGAs.

Sydney LGA's current population is also lower than the census data from 5 years ago being used to calculate denominator as mostvof the student accommodation is empty due to lack of foreign students, as are a lot of the apartments.

Maybe show some optimism, we have had enough doom and gloom predictions, its time for everyone to get busy living.
 
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Tiki

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We bailed out of Hobart today and headed home to the Gold Coast earlier than planned. Thankfully we did as the QLD government is declaring southern Tasmania a hotspot as of 1am tonight, even though there has still only been the one case in Hobart. Hobart CBD was a ghost town this morning
This insanity needs to stop! It is ridiculous that we can't even travel to "safe" states and not risk getting stranded. I feel so bad for the 1000's of Qlders trapped on the NSW border living in tents who can't come home even if they are double vaxxed. I hope the new CHO has a more relaxed attitude about this sort of thing.
 

Must...Fly!

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This insanity needs to stop! It is ridiculous that we can't even travel to "safe" states and not risk getting stranded. I feel so bad for the 1000's of Qlders trapped on the NSW border living in tents who can't come home even if they are double vaxxed. I hope the new CHO has a more relaxed attitude about this sort of thing.
Don't think you will find much argument with your statement here.

I still have some mixed emotions but overall I am so relieved there is light at the end of the tunnel after living through all of this in Melbourne. It's not a woe is me tale because other places in the world have had it so so much worse but wow, I am really looking forward to going out for dinner.

Funnily the thing that I will probably not rush to go out and do is have a haircut. The $22 clippers I bought from Harvey Norman seem to do a perfectly adequate job (not that I can see the back...:D)
 

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A new low.

QLD declares Tassie as a hotspot after zero cases. Zero.

Our CHO going out with a bang so no one forgets her name…
I just thought it was the locations old mate had been to.

These decisions are just hilarious now. Rather happy they will hopefully be a thing of the past for those in NSW and VIC.
 

Tiki

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1634418388793.png

Would it really be that much of a disaster if Covid got into Qld? The vast majority of elderly are double vaxxed and those that aren't are probably non-vax or if immunocomprmised wold have a plan to deal with such a situation. If we don't have some spread here, the complacent ones don't have an incentive to get vaxxed. The deaths in NSW and Vic are mostly all nonvax so if you are double dosed there is nothing to be afraid of.
 

Quickstatus

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No it is the proportion of the total population over 16 who have had 2 jabs
yes, but why not 70% or 75% or 85% or 90%.
The number was decided on based on modelling - its not a special epidemiological number with special properties.Hence the same policy setting disparity between target % and actual % in many areas - Eg Sydney and Randwick.

As I said the lockdown has gone on long enough...
 

Pushka

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Our CHO reacts to every positive truckie that winds its way through SA mostly at service stations. As we head up now to our other place one of the common truckie stops was a place that we thought about breaking our journey mid way but right now, as most times it's deemed a Code 2 or 3 site a couple of times a week, which means testing and quarantine, we have to avoid it now. I think we've had 15 or so positive truckies coming through and so far, despite multiple stops each time, there has been no community spread from them. Another one yesterday. CHO gets very frustrated they don't use our QR check in, and expresses that, but so far, nothing covid has happened. We keep dodging the bullets. But the comments on FB about stopping the truckies coming here are pathetic. People have no idea how food and supplies come to the supermarkets etc.
 

Jenya

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If we don't have some spread here, the complacent ones don't have an incentive to get vaxxed.
Exactly, I was predicting that delta will jump QLD border within September and really disappointed now I was wrong.
We really need delta spread here as wake up call for many to finally book their jab.
Otherwise it will take too long to reach 80%DD to open up. :(
 
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It also confers some immunity which may be better than Vax
You need to stop promoting this borderline covidiot misinfo.

The British society of immunology has a very helpful infographic on this.

But this is the key message

Likely that for most people vaccination will induce more effective
& longer lasting immunity compared to natural infection.

Even if you've had COVID-19, vaccination will boost whatever
immunity you have from natural infection.


 

jakeseven7

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NSW shut the anti-vaxxers pub down to stop further virus spread amongst the unvaccinated population 😂

——

Singleton pub closed by police for 'repeated and continued' COVID breaches​


The Caledonian in Singleton, which has described itself as the "Freedom Hotel", was forced to close yesterday and will remain shut until midnight on Tuesday.

"The closure order follows a number of previous interactions with the licensee – a 57-year-old man – due to repeated and continued breaches of the public health order by allegedly allowing – and not taking steps to prevent – unvaccinated people being at the premises," said NSW Police Commissioner Mick Fuller in a statement.

Since new public health orders came into effect on Monday, police have issued three infringement notices to the pub's licensee and three infringement notices to the pub's staff.

Singleton Mayor Sue Moore said the pub's public stance against the public health orders was disappointing, especially given the region was playing catch-up with vaccination rates.

 

Quickstatus

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You need to stop promoting this borderline covidiot misinfo.

The British society of immunology has a very helpful infographic on this.
Read widely
Here is a start from an article in a respected journal from Sept 2021

And please re-read my post which I quote here with some bolding:
"It also confers some immunity which may be better than Vax"


I deliberately inserted "some" and "may" because the evidence is still inconclusive re the extent of immunity provided by either Natural infection or Vax. Nor did I say that people who got infected with Covid should not get vaxxed.

Specifically about your linked article:
1)"may produce a more robust immune response" - there is so much evidence for variable immune response from CovidVax. And note the use of the word "May"
2)"2 doses produce long term protection" - I am certain they do not have a crystal ball either. Most countries only had about a year or so. Long term protection is unknown. If there is long term protection why is a booster required?
3) "length of protection reduces over time" - uncertain - same as Vax according to many studies
4)"immune system may not be able to recognise a viral variant" - lots of uncertainty about that.

We do not know yet the level of antibody required for effective Covid immunity. Nor do we know yet the contribution of the T cell immunity to overall Covid immunity.

Look at the India experience. In a country with 1.4 billion people, where lockdowns and social distancing is poor, explain why their Delta wave peaked and subsided before significant vaccinations - apparently less than 5% double vax when the wave subsided. Speculation is that serologically up to 67% of the population was exposed/infected by Pre-Delta Covid19 variant. Did this confer some immunity?. Obviously not to all, but the question is worth asking. No?
 
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