Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

Tiki

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I don't entirely agree. Case numbers still indicate spread of the virus, and are a predictor that there will be more hospital admissions. What we hope is changing is the rate of hospital admissions relative to case numbers. What would be good in giving confidence to the average punter would be if hospitalisations go up at a different/lower rate to case numbers after opening up in SYD. That would mean we would start to track more like Vic for hospitalisations thanks to vaccinations.
I think it needs to be restructured to emphasize what is really important.

Tests done
Negative results
Asymptomatic positive results
Positive results requiring hospitalization
Patients in ICU (by age band and vax status)
Patients on Ventilator (by age band and vax status)
Deaths (by age band, vax status, underlying conditions

I would like to see the word "case" banned altogether, this is the word that freaks people out and makes them want to keep borders closed.
 

N860CR

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I would like to see the word "case" banned altogether, this is the word that freaks people out and makes them want to keep borders closed.

Exactly. They’ve never been “cases”, they’ve been “positive test results”. It has just suited the narrative up until now. When you say “but are they all sick” you’re met with the response “maybe not but they’ll suffer long covid”. It’s not HIV, the vast vast majority of people recover from this. When it comes to the vaccinated, basically all of them.
 

Lynda2475

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The hospitalization and ICU numbers are lagging indicators, not likely many test positive and then end up in hospital or ICU the same day (unless they had avoided getting testing when they became symptomatic).

You really just need test done, positives, # in hospital, # in ICU and # on ventilators so you can track the trend of the lagging indicators.

In NSW the demographic breakdown (age, gender, vaccination status) of those hospitalised, in ICU and Deaths is already provided in the weekly covid surveillance reports.
 

TonyHancock

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12% population Covid positive at some point in the pandemic
Just to be clear these are cases reported following a positive test - estimates vary on the actual number of positive cases - some statistical studies have this number at over 20%. I do understand that we want the facts and not statistical forecasts and modelling, but no one actually knows the answer because asymptomatic cases go unreported. (This is relatively important for Australia because Covid-19 has not been rife in the wider community for 18 months as it has been in the UK)

What has not been as widespread is antibody testing - in late 2020 the UK govt sent antibody test kits to a cross section of people. I met a chap in the USA who had recovered from Covid and now has regular antibody checks rather than the vaccination.

I wonder if we will see more testing for antibodies following opening up.
 
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Just to be clear these are cases reported following a positive test
Correct - only way to know is to test.

asymptomatic cases go unreported
There are asymptomatic cases who are positive - because they got tested - they go into above category
Asymptomatic cases who do not have a test go here - therefore they are an unknown quantity

I wonder if we will see more testing for antibodies following opening up
The UK is encouraging DIY RAT, but for us uncouth convicts- supervised RAT😁

regular antibody checks rather than the vaccination.
Thats like not buying a lotto ticket every week and then happily confirming each time he did not win the jackpot.🤣
 

TonyHancock

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Thats like not buying a lotto ticket every week and then happily confirming each time he did not win the jackpot.🤣
To be fair in the US there are many places requiring proof of complete FDA approved vaccination or proof of recovery from Covid 19 - I guess the antibody test gives some evidence that the individual, unvaccinated, should be allowed on site.....but yes your simile works. :)

One research paper estimates that 27% of the population in the UK has had Covid. (We can probably offset this with the number of school children mixing Orange juice into their antigen test to give a positive result and take a week off from school!!! 😀 )
 
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mixing Orange juice into their antigen test
Yes!!
For those interested in this for a bit of fun...:eek:

Come to think of it maybe someone should let the antivaxxers know that even the ethically sourced, organically grown, GMO free, animal cruelty free, rainforest alliance certified and dolphin safe orange juice contain Covid:D

27% of the population in the UK has had Covid
My understanding is that a +RAT does not allow that result to be added into the +Covid ledger. Rather it indicates that a PCR Covid test needs to be done to confirm the RAT test. If confirmed - only then its added into the ledger.
 
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N860CR

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One research paper estimates that 27% of the population in the UK has had Covid.

That’s roughly in line with the WHOs worldwide estimates (ie actual cases are 10 times greater than reported, so over a quarter of the world has already had it).

The South African blood service did antibody tests on donations and their estimates sat at over 50%. I think this was pre-delta as well.
 
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The South African blood service did antibody tests on donations and their estimates sat at over 50%
ICMR India suggests that 67% of the population over 6yrs have non vaccine related seroconverted to Covid19 - meaning they have Covid19 antibodies in a July survey but at the time only13% of the eligible population was 2Jab.

Most of the Jabs have been supplied by AZ (Called Covishield in India). Not surprisingly India could not come to an agreement with Moderna re SV and Pfizer re PZ - because of
1) Prices higher than AZ
2) AZ has local supply
3) SV and PZ require deep cold storage with robust cold chain management
4) SV and PZ manufacturer wanted sovereign immunity.

The high non vaccine related seroconversion is important because there is very high vaccine hesitancy in India especially in rural India.


Reports are India is on a 7 day avg of new positives at circa 18000 per day and 240 deaths per day. Accuracy likely not great. However this comports with several colleagues who have families in India who said Covid is manageable now. There is no such thing as lockdowns in India
 

Seat0B

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I just need an angry face emoji :mad: :mad: Our nanny state is going over the top to protect us. And the "get out of lockdown" for 15 October is not really get out of lockdown. No shopping allowed. No group fitness classes and gyms limited to 25 people at max - so our Fitness First has decided it's not really worth it to open. No travel allowed beyond border bubble. And border bubble travel only allowed for essential reasons (work, study, medical, care) - although I did note somewhere on ABC News site that it said "visit another household" was also now an essential reason for travel in the border bubble. And that the border bubble has extended slightly to include a bit more of the Capital Region eg Goulburn, Cooma and Yass.
 

Lynda2475

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Despite the bucketing rain today still a huge queue outside the Barber's the backlog of people waiting a haircut is huge. Because its colder and wetter today I noticed more people dining inside at the cafe and fish n Chip shop. Coles still have their Marshall on the door verifying your have checked in before allowing entry.
 

Lynda2475

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There seems to be a bit of a theme in Tassie of people not staying in quarantine. It can only be a good thing if there are community cases in every state and territory because then everywhere can be open to all of Australia.

From ABC Blog:

Tasmania records a positive COVID-19 case

That case is a man who travelled into the state from Melbourne and was put into government-mandated quarantine in Hobart.

It was then discovered he left the hotel and was later tracked down at a home in the outer northern suburbs of Hobart by police yesterday afternoon.

He was tested for COVID-19 that afternoon and the positive result came today.
 
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