Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

drron

Veteran Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2002
Messages
28,273
Solutions
1
Points
4,040
So I do a post and then our consistent CHO does a backflip and says the Sunshine coast patient is no longer thought to be the index case of this outbreak.
Dr Young said it now appeared as though the traveller who arrived June 29 and was a patient at Sunshine Coast University Hospital (SCUH) did not spread the virus to his family when he was discharged and went home to Buderim.


She also said the 17-year-old Indooroopilly student who was the first person to test positive in this outbreak – and her family – had passed on the virus to the medical student who was tutoring her, not the other way around as was initially surmised.

And as for being consistent the only thing she has been consistent in is the demonisation of the AZ vaccine.The ATAGI advice has NEVER been that people under 60 should not have the AZ vaccine.They have always said it is an effective vaccine and that those who had had a first jab of AZ should get their second jab.The fact that a CHO states as her belief a view that is inconsistent to the ATAGI advice amounts to incompetence.
 

Lynda2475

Established Member
Joined
May 1, 2009
Messages
4,473
Solutions
1
Points
835
Qantas
Gold
Virgin
Red
Realistically the Sydney lockdown wouldn't be over until September at the earliest without some other sort of criteria being introduced. I think news.com was right in reporting that the NSW premier is now saying lockdown could be lifted earlier than that if they reach a vaccination target (was reported as 70% in the first edition, may have been updated now).

Good for Sydney... but I don't think we want potentially infected people coming in to Victoria - even with 50/60/70 per cent targets reached. The cost of all this testing and time off work must be phenomenal. And NSW wants to continue that rather than people stay at home for a few days?

NSW lifting restriction on Sydneysiders has zero to do with people going from NSW to Victoria, since the Vic Premier sets his own rules as to who can come into Vic.

The current lockdown of Greater Sydney goes until 28th August, so yes we will have current restrictions for next 4 weeks.

However, you are still mixing up the easing of Greater Sydney restrictions in NSW (i.e. reasons to leave home, businesses that can operate, mask mandates etc) with other states separately deciding to allow NSW in or not.

We will definitely see some more easing on 29th August (not all restrictions) irrespective of whether we are at 70% provided community cases are falling. There has already been some easing with some construction resuming over the weekend in areas outside of the 8 LGAs of concern.
 
Last edited:

Princess Fiona

Enthusiast
Moderator
Joined
May 22, 2009
Messages
10,958
Solutions
1
Points
1,535
Qantas
Platinum 1
Meanwhile all of NSW continues to be classed as High Risk, Zone Red or whatever each State's local definition of a no-go area is :(
And the rest of NSW is not (Orange aside) and has never been in lockdown and with no cases.
The virus doesn’t care about state borders.
 

bcworld

Established Member
Joined
May 26, 2010
Messages
3,304
Solutions
1
Points
710
The other night YouTube recommended this episode of Australian Story about the Spanish Flu...I guess it must've been broadcast well over a year ago. Very good...but where it really got interesting was about the 16 minute mark...some of the parallels to today are amazing:
  • Australia effectively shutting the border and keeping the illness at bay for a long time
  • Quarantine stations
  • Then finally it breaks out which leads to
    • A war of words between Vic and NSW (shock!) about interstate incursions and how things should've been dealt with
    • Despite prior agreements with the Commonwealth, states slamming their borders shut with no notice
    • Commonwealth loses control of the states
    • Newspaper headlines about 4 virus cases
    • Lockdowns
Very much a case of history repeating!

 

HappyFlyerFamily

Established Member
Joined
Feb 25, 2020
Messages
4,239
Solutions
1
Points
690
Realistically the Sydney lockdown wouldn't be over until September at the earliest without some other sort of criteria being introduced. I think news.com was right in reporting that the NSW premier is now saying lockdown could be lifted earlier than that if they reach a vaccination target (was reported as 70% in the first edition, may have been updated now).

Good for Sydney... but I don't think we want potentially infected people coming in to Victoria - even with 50/60/70 per cent targets reached. The cost of all this testing and time off work must be phenomenal. And NSW wants to continue that rather than people stay at home for a few days?
But it is not a few days. It will be well over 60 days by the time this lockdown is currently due to finish and of course that is being optimistic.

I think a couple of things are getting muddled up in terms of timelines.

I think most people are expecting Sydney's lockdown to continue for 4 months (which is a similar time that Melbourne's went for) - so say end of October ie 120 days - which would be more than a few days (without considering vaccination levels)

Then add the vaccination consideration, NSW currently jabbed at about 4 million doses and NSW is currently jabbing about 500,000 doses per week. To get to 70% of the target jabs (ie 9.2m jabs) - 10 to 11 weeks, which is around the end of NSW September/October school holidays., the mythical 10m jabs is a couple of weeks later - which is close enough to end of October.

How would Australia be travelling then (ie second week of October)? Possibly 80% first dose and almost 60% two doses.

Happy if Sydney gets out of lockdown earlier safely, but I doubt anyone sees it realistically happening before October.

NSW authorities might decide to further 'enhance' the two-tier lockdown method.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

Established Member
Joined
Feb 25, 2020
Messages
4,239
Solutions
1
Points
690
My point was that if Sydney had gone hard, gone early, and been willing to follow some rules, they could have nipped the outbreak after a few (14) days. But instead... sometime in September or October?
Well mobility data showed Sydney and Melbourne at about 10%, so saying 'go hard', 'gone early', 'follow some rules' and pointing to some pictures seems a bit of fluffy words.

NSW Police are on the streets and (with ADF support) knocking on a lot of quarantining households/positive cases.

The problem at the moment is that covid is clearly in the critical workforce and then spreading to household contacts.

To me, some other suggestions worth looking at the moment (not sure if they are already implemented or not) include:
- 25% or 33% rotation at critical workplaces
- rapid testing at Year 12 and critical workplaces

We will see if going early even makes a difference with SE Qld's current lockdown. But I would say NSW authorities probably didn't think Delta was as contagious given its previous occurrences in Australia prior to that.
 

lovetravellingoz

Enthusiast
Joined
Jul 13, 2006
Messages
12,331
Solutions
1
Points
905
But I would say NSW authorities probably didn't think Delta was as contagious given its previous occurrences in Australia prior to that.

I think that is so with the NSW Gov. But should they have?

It remains with Delta, as with earlier strains, that 80% of people tend to not infect many people. So it was really just luck that BBQ man, and probably the other Delta outbreaks in Australia cases did not transmit more widely (ie He was part of the 80% and not the 20%)

When the Delta Outbreak was at large in Melbourne in the twin-outbreak before this one Professor Lewin was asked the question on Melbourne being very unlucky to have had a Delta Outbreak on top of the Kappa Outbreak. Her answer was that Melbourne was lucky that the Delta Outbreak occurred when Melbourne was already under control measures.

And with the Kappa Outbreak there was already clear evidence that these new strains were more easily and quickly transmitted than previous outbreaks. ie Fleeting transmission and more people per household infected. Plus on show there was what was happening in multiple countries with Delta.

So it really should have been known that the potential was very much there for rapid growth by the time that Limo man started to infect others.
 
Get paid up to 25% in real cash from your everyday purchases from leading companies such as Virgin Australia, Booking.com, Coles, Apple, Microsoft and much more. Free to join and no catches!

AFF Supporters can remove this and all advertisements

Saab34

Established Member
Joined
Jul 22, 2008
Messages
1,616
Points
400
The Sydney lockdown might be eased as the coming months approach however the Victorian or other states border situation won’t. They won’t open until they get probably a week or two of zero community transmission. That is a bloody long way off, if even possible? before we reach supposedly herd immunity December 31.

Sydney residents won’t be going interstate for a long while yet.

Sydney might get more freedoms in the coming months however I don’t think the border will open until next year.
 

nutwood

Established Member
Joined
Mar 4, 2015
Messages
1,073
Points
465
It seems to becoming apparent that Covid is not at it's best outside on a nice sunny Australian day. Not saying it won't jump hosts under these conditions but transmission seems much reduced.
 

MEL_Traveller

Enthusiast
Joined
Apr 27, 2005
Messages
23,314
Solutions
6
Points
1,820
It seems to becoming apparent that Covid is not at it's best outside on a nice sunny Australian day. Not saying it won't jump hosts under these conditions but transmission seems much reduced.

Perhaps there is a consequential effect of mass gatherings outside? As in it diminishes the message of the other restrictions. I wonder how many people look at those crowds and think 'it should be ok if I just go visit mum and dad'? Or 'it must be ok to visit friends because everyone else is out'?
 

nutwood

Established Member
Joined
Mar 4, 2015
Messages
1,073
Points
465
Perhaps there is a consequential effect of mass gatherings outside? As in it diminishes the message of the other restrictions. I wonder how many people look at those crowds and think 'it should be ok if I just go visit mum and dad'? Or 'it must be ok to visit friends because everyone else is out'?
That seems reasonable. I do think though that if we're going to continue down the Covid Zero path, a bit less mushroom treatment and a bit more community involvement would be beneficial. The broad brush/big stick approach works in the short term but in the long term it becomes counter productive.
Realistically, we have a large State cordoned off with no realistic end in view and yet the vast majority of that State is Covid free. After eighteen months we ought to be able to do better. If some situations are more Covid safe, they should be investigated and discussed.
 

N860CR

Established Member
Joined
Nov 30, 2004
Messages
4,453
Points
715
It seems to becoming apparent that Covid is not at it's best outside on a nice sunny Australian day. Not saying it won't jump hosts under these conditions but transmission seems much reduced.

Only need to walk into a major park (Sydney Park at St Peter’s is a good example) and you’ll see probably 10 times the usually volume of people (without QR tracking). Clearly, this is not causing any spread.

I get it last year… but we’re 18 months in now. If we’re purely doing things for optics, then it’s a pretty big concern.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

Established Member
Joined
Feb 25, 2020
Messages
4,239
Solutions
1
Points
690
NSW Health information

Cases’ community risk

A case is assigned a community exposure risk level based on an initial assessment of their opportunity to transmit the infection in the community during their infectious period. Their infectious period is two days before symptom onset (or specimen collection date if asymptomatic) until the date NSW Health is notified of the infection.
• Low risk indicates that the case was in isolation during their infectious period or had stayed at home (with or without household members) with no community exposures.
• Medium risk indicates that the case was isolating for part of their infectious period, or only had low risk community exposures and no venue exposures for their entire infectious period.
• High risk indicates that the case was active in the community with venue exposures during their infectious period

NSW Health had a table for the week, which is replicated in the last 4 columns, but I've inserted data in the first 6 columns based on the regular daily report:

DateLocal acquiredIsolating during infectious periodPartially isolating during infectious periodNot isolating during infectious periodUnder investigationFinal - low riskFinal - medium riskFinal - high riskTotal
12-Jul​
112​
48​
12​
34​
18​
57​
17​
39​
113​
13-Jul​
89​
55​
9​
21​
4​
56​
9​
24​
89​
14-Jul​
97​
60​
7​
24​
6​
65​
7​
25​
97​
15-Jul​
65​
29​
7​
28​
1​
30​
7​
28​
65​
16-Jul​
97​
46​
17​
29​
5​
51​
16​
30​
97​
17-Jul​
111​
69​
10​
29​
3​
71​
10​
30​
111​
18-Jul​
105​
69​
7​
27​
2​
70​
5​
30​
105​
Total
676​
376​
69​
192​
39​
400​
71​
206​
677​
55.62%​
10.21%​
28.40%​
5.77%​
59.08%​
10.49%​
30.43%​
 

HappyFlyerFamily

Established Member
Joined
Feb 25, 2020
Messages
4,239
Solutions
1
Points
690
Details from NSW’s much-anticipated roadmap out of lockdown have emerged, hinting at when pubs can finally reopen and when kids can go back to school.

The plan is yet to be publicly released, but senior government sources told The Sydney Morning Herald the first restrictions set to ease will relate to returning to face-to-face learning, hospitality venues and gyms.

The sources, who are familiar with the plan but not authorised to speak about the details, said once vaccination rates hit between 50 and 60 per cent students will be able to return to school, outdoor dining for hospitality venues will be able to resume and gyms will reopen with strict Covid-19 safety measures in place.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian has continually said that 80 per cent of the adult NSW population need to be vaccinated for there to be no more lockdowns, though other vaccination benchmarks such as 50, 60 and 70 per cent would “trigger more freedoms”.

 
Top