Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Melburnian1]

Dan and his CHO have called a Sunday presser, this can’t be good for Victorians. Possibility of lockdowns?

jase05, I won't repeat all that's come out, as you can read it on sites like 'The Herald Sun' but this is a brief excerpt:

'Suburban lockdowns and fines of up to $1600 for travellers quarantined in hotels who refuse coronavirus tests are under consideration in a dramatic bid to halt infections...'

I suspect more information may be public later on Sunday 28 June.

 

[Pushka]

I recently saw a persuasive argument suggesting that this pandemic is/will be the third worst in recorded history

I'v given up reading doomsday posts from 'experts' these days because they have everything to gain by stating it's going to be the biggest, the worst, the deadliest etc. They get their headlines as they want, their five minutes of fame, then move on.

Last night police arrested a guy in Port Augusta, way north of Adelaide, who not only crashed his car, he blew .2, and he was only 8 days after travelling from Victoria so also blew the iso law.

For gods sake Andrews, test those in quarantine so at least you know what you are dealing with and can manage it and stop those security people from messing around with travellers. SA did great last time and will continue to do so as the ADF are assisting.

We also had I think, around 70 ADF personnel returning from Malaysia but I think they are being quarantined on base at Edinburgh.

 

[suze2000]

Friday afternoon as I was leaving work (large Melb public hospital) I saw an ambo arriving, delivering 500 or so COVID swabs (I can imagine the poor Pathology staff when that arrived after hours!) from the outbreak suburbs. And with their fabulous new high turnaround machine (and the efforts of other hard-working path labs around the city), a good number of those new cases announced over the weekend will be from the testing blitz now underway. Which is a good thing. The numbers will definitely rise because of this, but with knowledge comes another chance to reduce/eliminate.

And one other point: it's great that other states have eliminated the virus, I am envious, but they don't have all the planes coming in from overseas to their cities, and they also don't have as ethnically diverse a population as we have in Melbourne and Sydney. There's a language barrier and a cultural one that needs to be overcome for success. I do wonder though, what success actually looks like to Uncle Dan.

 

[Pushka]

Friday afternoon as I was leaving work (large Melb public hospital) I saw an ambo arriving, delivering 500 or so COVID swabs (I can imagine the poor Pathology staff when that arrived after hours!) from the outbreak suburbs. And with their fabulous new high turnaround machine (and the efforts of other hard-working path labs around the city), a good number of those new cases announced over the weekend will be from the testing blitz now underway. Which is a good thing. The numbers will definitely rise because of this, but with knowledge comes another chance to reduce/eliminate.

And one other point: it's great that other states have eliminated the virus, I am envious, but they don't have all the planes coming in from overseas to their cities, and they also don't have as ethnically diverse a population as we have in Melbourne and Sydney. There's a language barrier and a cultural one that needs to be overcome for success. I do wonder though, what success actually looks like to Uncle Dan.

Adelaide had 360 arrivals from Mumbai and Malaysia yesterday. But they were tested on arrival at the airport, and will be retested I think on Day 10.

They also did that last time when 800 people arrived from India. There are another 500 expected later this week. But our security guards don't mess with the travellers. Makes a big difference. And they are provided with rooms with balconies for fresh air, multiple rooms for families, and restaurant provided meals.

I had a baby seat fitted the other day and the lady whose business it is, supplies the cots to the quarantine hotels each time. This is the main business she has been having recently and it saved her. She will be happy this week.

The Hotels are in the city, and are cordoned off but because of the balconies, people wave and they can communicate with the outside world a little. And the weather here in Adelaide is currently wonderful for them. Sunny and bright.

 

[jakeseven7]

The optimists fail to identify the infective reality ; as soon as the isolation restrictions are eased the infection spread recommences.
Even from a very small starting point the virus infects exponentially , flattening the curve or even near eradication does not negate this reality.
It takes just one asymptomatic spreader who is moving in crowds and shedding live virus to restart a new round of infection.
It takes some time for the symptomatic cases to be noticed because folks don't want to know, they just want it to go away
By the time symptomatic cases are in treatment the underlying community spread is difficult to stop.
Yes we are on red alert and there is a rush to test , quarantine and treat .. all good but the infection is still there.. waiting, testing for any opportunity to propagate.

I recently saw a persuasive argument suggesting that this pandemic is/will be the third worst in recorded history.
The world numbers to date seem to support this , perhaps as a conservative view because the covid proliferation throughout the world has been explosive.
Ten million tested cases with, say, a minimum factor of 4 (I have seen 10 suggested ), a conservative 40 million infections in six months with a continuing escalation in daily cases.

In this salubrious environment the au government has spent the rent on short term community support ; there appears to be no plan B for a five + year economic and social depression driven by a very successful new disease.
Calm heads are warning of a second wave market correction citing the sucker rally to end all sucker rallies.

How will you survive in my very dark prognostication of an Apocalyptic world ?
Will you scoff at my negativity , believe in endless government largesse, or that the virus will just.. go away.. or some other hopeful estimation ?

This piece is either a prescient warning.. or doomsday rubbish , I sincerely hope that it is rubbish .. but if it is not.. at least I may have sown some seeds of survival..

More optimistic rebuttals welcomed…...

Incredibly surprisingly and for once I find myself agreeing with some of your points

I think some states have completely lost sight of what we have to do medium term to live with the virus and not destroy livelihoods. And unfortunately they lack sight of the bigger picture / don’t care because it isn’t their responsibility and the people who control the bigger picture don’t necessarily have the power to bring that to life.

Eventually the tide of public opinion will turn. This feeling will only spread for one key reason; the economic hardship will bite far more people than the virus and people react to things that impact them directly more loudly. Day by day more people are laid off and businesses close. It’s only a matter of time.

Personally I think there should be Much more emphasis on protecting the vulnerable in a systematic way and in parallel opening up the economy faster for the rest of us in a COVIDSafe manner and killing all this state v state nonsense and the hysterical reactions discussion in the media that just whip up unfortunate reactions in the community. It’s a vicious circle.

 

[jakeseven7]

Last night police arrested a guy in Port Augusta, way north of Adelaide, who not only crashed his car, he blew .2, and he was only 8 days after travelling from Victoria so also blew the iso law.

Unfortunately you can’t legislate against idiots.

So they caught 1. I absolutely guarantee you there are hundreds more that have done this, everywhere.

 

[jase05]

Unfortunately you can’t legislate against idiots.

So they caught 1. I absolutely guarantee you there are hundreds more that have done this, everywhere.

Throw them in prison for 6 months

 

[Pushka]

Throw them in prison for 6 months

And this guy was also disqualified from driving. So they've disqualified him for another 12 months, because that will make a no difference to his behaviour

 

[jase05]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1277054176363638784

 

[Pushka]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1277054176363638784

For the first time in a while I'm hoping SA doesn't release the borders just yet. Although still 3 weeks away but the numbers keep climbing.

 

[33kft]

Interesting set of numbers from Jenny Mikakos's piece in today's VIC presser:

"To date, we've had more than 11,000 people who have been tested in those priority suburbs, and almost 24,000 homes have been door knocked"

Does not sound like much of a take-up rate there. Maybe I'm misinterpreting what she's saying?

 

[jase05]

For the first time in a while I'm hoping SA doesn't release the borders just yet. Although still 3 weeks away but the numbers keep climbing.

I think we still need to open the borders but anyone from hotspots would still need to either be turned away or self isolate on arrival with strict conditions

 

[jase05]

A cargo handler at SYD amongst their positive tests today

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think we still need to open the borders but anyone from hotspots would still need to either be turned away or self isolate on arrival with strict conditions

The problem with the rising numbers is also that it’s almost definitely breached the suburb

 

[Pushka]

I think we still need to open the borders but anyone from hotspots would still need to either be turned away or self isolate on arrival with strict conditions

And as we know, people won't be that selective. Maybe a turn away may be in order. Don't get me wrong, we have very much needed work booked in Melbourne after July and we really need to travel there.

SA will report positives in the next few days but only those in quarantine.

 

[trevella]

For the first time in a while I'm hoping SA doesn't release the borders just yet.

Now amplify that sort of vacillation to the macro level and it should be clear that policymakers are on a hiding to nothing.

 

[jase05]

Interesting set of numbers from Jenny Mikakos's piece in today's VIC presser:

"To date, we've had more than 11,000 people who have been tested in those priority suburbs, and almost 24,000 homes have been door knocked"

Does not sound like much of a take-up rate there. Maybe I'm misinterpreting what she's saying?

I spoke to someone this morning from one of the hotspots and she was door knocked on Friday and wasn’t tested on the spot. She was asked a few questions and given a slip of paper with addresses of testing stations in the regions. So the onus is up to individual or not to go and get tested. She took her family in on Saturday morning but wonder how many others bothered to?
Have they got the ability to perform on the spot tests?

 

[p--and--t]

WA is 2 months without community transmission - that's eradication.
Much like NZ has had 40k people at rugby games

I think a bit differently. The whole world is going to have to live with the virus for years unless a method/treatment is found to stop it.

The world has changed, we need to learn new behaviours to prevent the virus overrunning the population by stealth. The next overseas or interstate visitor may be the catalyst for that to occur. Hundreds of people are crossing the WA border every week, not all are going into isolation.

From the media vision, it appears many are becoming very complacent on the basis they "think" the virus has been eradicated.

YMMV

 

[Pushka]

Now amplify that sort of vacillation to the macro level and it should be clear that policymakers are on a hiding to nothing.

Agree. Good point. Perhaps the only policy maker I'm currently not happy with is Victoria. Because despite all the incredible restrictions it seems there have been some basic holes in the management of risk populations, more specifically Cedar meats and the Travellers. It seems they are running an agenda where some people's perceived 'freedom' not to take the test, when they are coming from known risk areas, is completely incompatible with the freedoms of the resident populations. And we are never told the source of the current infections so we do not know if an infected traveller(s) are implicated.

In a comment today, SA Health said that of the 1200 or so travellers who have been repatriated via Adelaide, there has not been one refusal. How did Victoria manage to accept 30% as being anything acceptable. And what training did they give their security personnel?

 

[RooFlyer]

I'm certainly not 'out of touch' with individuals 'like that' - I have some opposite me in the street - but the alleged increase gambling spend is still a staggering (and sombre) statistic.

Not to say its not very bad, but I think those 'increase' figures are for on-line platforms, because the pubs, clubs and Casinos have been closed?