Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

Well listening to Dan Andrews just now focusing on community spread is very much now the plan.

So? That’s not wiping it out. We just need to be careful we aren’t fuelling hysteria.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I had a feeling EID was about four weeks ago. Isn’t this break out a bit more recent?

Eid = 24 May (plus a few days if celebrations kept going).

However I would note that many of the recent schools closed due to students being infected were independent catholic schools.

It is not just people of one faith involved. Indeed I would imagine that some were not religious at all.

 

[Gremlin]

Well listening to Dan Andrews just now focusing on community spread is very much now the plan.

Interestingly, the PM's press conference this morning suggests it's very much the plan too.

I literally laughed out loud last night when I head Palaszczuk on the radio saying that they've all agreed to the national plan for suppression and that's why it's so important to eliminate this community spread in Victoria.

So a suppression strategy where there's no community spread is... ?

If it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck...

 

[blackcat20]

Theyve named the suburbs in Melbourne:
Keilor Downs, Broadmeadows, Maidstone, Albanvale, Sunshine West, Hallam, Brunswick West, Fawkner, Reservoir and Pakenham

 

[jakeseven7]

Theyve named the suburbs in Melbourne:
Keilor Downs, Broadmeadows, Maidstone, Albanvale, Sunshine West, Hallam, Brunswick West, Fawkner, Reservoir and Pakenham

Named the suburbs what....? Are they going to change the names back to their traditional owner suburb names? That would be nice

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yeah, sounds like they are aiming to test 50% of the population in 10 suburbs

Yes that is the stated target, with Keilor Downs and Broadmeadows the particular focus for the next three days:

 

[blackcat20]

Named the suburbs what....? Are they going to change the names back to their traditional owner suburb names? That would be nice

The hotspots; instead of just naming the councils, they have identified the actual suburbs.

 

[jakeseven7]

Yes that is the stated target, with Keilor Downs and Broadmeadows the particular focus for the next three days:

No, read it calmly.

Only the top 2 suburbs they want to reach 50%.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Widespread temperature testing is also being brought in for the 10 targeted suburbs and also in areas where there are large numbers of people gathering. ie tourist sights etc

Post automatically merged: Jun 25, 2020

No, read it calmly.

Only the top 2 suburbs they want to reach 50%.

Yes the letter indicated 2 suburbs 50% target in three days.

But it was also what Dan just said in his conference just now. Perhaps he mistated or I misheard, but I thought that he also wanted to get eventually to 50% in all hotspot suburbs..

 

[Pushka]

The hotspots; instead of just naming the councils, they have identified the actual suburbs.

Hopefully not close to you so you can plan safely?

 

[blackcat20]

Hopefully not close to you so you can plan safely?

No, we're a good 20+ kms from the hotspot suburb in our neighbouring council. None names in our council either.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just on the numbers. Let us do the maths. They want to do 25,000 tests per day for 10 days = 250,000 tests. At 1 in 2, total = 500,000 people.

2016 Census (so will be more now)
Population of Broadmeadows is 11,970
Population of Keilor Downs is 9,995

50% = 11,000 in these two suburbs.

Allow for population increase to 2020. Say 15,000 for those two suburbs. That allows 235,000 tests to do other tests for anyone symptomatic in the rest of Victoria and also to reach 50% later (ie after 3 days) in the other suburbs.


Now if they keep finding cases in Broadmeadows and Keilor Downs you would imagine that they will go above 50% there.



PS: This is very much the type of speedy response that is required and is good to see.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Just on the numbers. Let us do the maths. They want to do 25,000 tests per day for 10 days = 250,000 tests. At 1 in 2, total = 500,000 people.

2016 Census (so will be more now)
Population of Broadmeadows is 11,970
Population of Keilor Downs is 9,995

50% = 11,000 in these two suburbs.

Allow for population increase to 2020. Say 15,000 for those two suburbs. That allows 235,000 tests to do other tests for anyone symptomatic in the rest of Victoria and also to reach 50% later (ie after 3 days) in the other suburbs.

There would be other people from other suburbs testing as well.

It’s good that they have come to a version of blanket testing. I guess LGA was not feasible, but suburbs is feasible.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

There would be other people from other suburbs testing as well.

Yes and that is why I had that stated as part of my numbers.

In the 10 hotspot suburbs though the key difference is that you do not need to have a symptoms to be tested. Anyone can be tested. Plus they will be actively encouraging that you get tested.

In the rest of Vic anyone with a symptom, no matter how mild, can seek testing.

 

[RooFlyer]

In the rest of Vic anyone with a symptom, no mater how mild, can seek testing.

So it’s not open to anyone? Is that new, with the focus on the outbreak, or has it always been the case?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So it’s not open to anyone? Is that new, with the focus on the outbreak, or has it always been the case?

In the 10 listed hotspots suburbs testing is now yes open to anyone. No symptoms required in order to get tested. This is new.

For everyone living everywhere else testing is open to anyone with even the most minor symptom. It has been this way for a longtime now (ie once tests became quite freely available. Prior to this it was specific symptoms that one had to have in order to get tested). There were also specific groups such as health workers, teachers etc who could also be tested without symptoms at various periods.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

With the testing blitz on with no symptoms required and with the goal of Broadmeadows and Keilor Downs to test 50% of people it is going to very interesting to see how many cases are found. It may also provide good information on the % of asymptomatic people in a population.

In addition while the goal is 50% in 3 days (may or may not get there), if it does turn up significant case numbers you would imagine that they will try and test to as close to 100% as possible.

 

[SydneySwan]

The next few days in these specific Melbourne suburbs is going to make for a very interesting case study whatever is the outcome. I am sure there will be many jurisdictions around the world who will be watching the outcome with interest.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

With the testing blitz on with no symptoms required and with the goal of Broadmeadows and Keilor Downs to test 50% of people it is going to very interesting to see how many cases are found. It may also provide could information on the % of asymptomatic people in a population.

In addition while the goal is 50% in 3 days (may or may not get there), if it does turn up significant case numbers you would imagine that they will try and test to as close to 100% as possible.

If you are from the hotspot suburb and have no symptoms and get a test, do you have to self-isolate? If there is that condition, then that may reduce turn-out. People reluctant to reduce their freedom while waiting on a test result, especially with a weekend coming up.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

If you are from the hotspot suburb and have no symptoms and get a test, do you have to self-isolate? If there is that condition, then that may reduce turn-out. People reluctant to reduce their freedom while waiting on a test result, especially with a weekend coming up.

Well that has long been a requirement of testing.

But now is the time for drastic action. To stomp out the spread before it really ramps up. Doing it this way should also achieve a quicker result than the alternative of locking down these suburbs which could then drag out for a month or more.

With this way the vast majority should only have to isolate for a day or two after testing till their result is known. This is much better than a month or two of lockdown.