Are the days of Points collecting over?

[Jacques Vert]

Not sure I agree, given the frequent flyer program is the one part of the business that makes money, yes the airlines want to maximise their profit. But they don’t want to kill it!

There doing a pretty good job of doing just that.

 

[levelnine]

It does depend on who the 'they' is.

Qantas flooded the market with points during COVID to boost their revenue, so the recent devaluations make sense — too many points chasing too few seats. They aren't trying to kill the game — they're trying to keep it going.

The RBA does not care about points collection. Indeed, they have no qualms about killing it.

So Qantas is going to have to work hard to keep it alive (at the same rate of profitability for them) post-RBA changes.

 

[MelbFlyer]

Qantas flooded the market with points during COVID to boost their revenue, so the recent devaluations make sense — too many points chasing too few seats.

This - way too many points in circulation and too little seats.

Having implemented their new reward seat finder tool further highlights how little premium seats are available on their own flights.

 

[SOPOOR]

Not sure I agree, given the frequent flyer program is the one part of the business that makes money, yes the airlines want to maximise their profit. But they don’t want to kill it!

FF programs have always been a pretty cough deal for your average Joe Blow (that’s how they make their money), but there always have been ways for the smarter aficionados to leverage benefit.

It’s a fine line but if FF programs become useless to everyone and everyone stops using them they lose all that, IMO they have to have some appeal to some users or they are killing a golden goose.

my assumption is that the point collectors who actually redeem it on premium flights is a tiny % whilst the high majority are people who have a credit card because thats what everyone does, and they are happy to get a toaster every few years or even a domestic flight (my parents both have one and dont even know how many points they have, nor really care)

and therefore these programs make millions for the airlines

 

[SYD]

This - way too many points in circulation and too little seats.

This is true. Although WP and up can call up for QF metal.

Having implemented their new reward seat finder tool further highlights how little premium seats are available on their own flights.

It's only showing what's visible to NB/PS (not linked to status) so users actually can't see what little QF awards do get released before what's taken.

Possibly equally alarming is the disappearance of many partners seats (eg CX, JL etc). That used to be pretty good.

 

[jbman]

I have a few friends who read the hype and started churning cards in the last 2-3 years. Piled up with points, they hoped to make some bookings for trips they wanted ie 2xJ to EU. Subscribed to various seat searching websites with no luck at all.

I feel this is the case for many over the past couple of years and do wonder what they and others will do in the future.

 

[burmans]

For sure, once upon a time many years ago only a few people knew of these opportunities. Then bloggers got hold of it and everyone was in the game. Just commercial sense that the airlines basically have two ways to respond, a) make points harder to get or b) make them worth less.

Just a natural cycle to me.

 

[burmans]

There doing a pretty good job of doing just that.

Makes a good quote except for the unfortunate fact there is little evidence to support it. Qantas being a public company publishes its results and it’s quite obvious that the Frequent Flyer program, far from dying, is actually going from strength to strength in contribution to QF profit.

I certainly accept that there are plenty who complain about QF FF but words don’t seem to have turned to action in any significant way.

 

[Jacques Vert]

Perhaps; but there are plenty of members who are becoming increasingly disappointed with all the "enhancements ".

From little things, big things grow.

 

[33kft]

Geez there's a lot of negativity. I'm really only active in the QFF world but today, I earn less than a quarter of the ca 500K points I turn over annually on card transactions. The rest comes from flights (and QBR), QF Marketplace, woolworths transfer and wine.

I imagine Qantas still wants to sell those points, so I guess we'll see where else they land. If instead of that quarter points earn I was picking up a consistent set of on the ground SCs for spend I already make, I'll be more than fine with that too. The idea that the CC spend would end points collection for me doesn't fly, it would clip my wings, but given I've got greater point earn potential (mainly thanks to QF Marketplace and a sizeable woolworths spend) now than in the past, I am not feeling that way.

 

[levelnine]

a sizeable woolworths spend

Changing from CC SUBs to WW spend is a good illustration of the way points collection is likely to go and why people are so negative.

WW spend is purchasing Qantas points at 1c/pt because each 1,000 points cost you $10 off your shop.

CC SUBs amount to purchasing Qantas points at ~0.4c/pt taking into the annual fee. A few years ago it was closer to 0.2c/pt — so the cost has already doubled pre-RBA changes.

And for $6,000 spend, you're earning 90K points with a card while you're earning, maybe, 3K to 10K points at WW (depending on the promotion at WW).

Put another way, you're paying 2.5x more for your points and earning 90% fewer points for the same spend.

When you take into account that, post devaluation, most people are unlikely to get much more than 1.5-2.5c/pt in value when they redeem their points and they have to deal with the challenges of award availability, lower status earn, etc, it is easy to see why the mood of the thread is that way it is.

 

[prozac]

Changing from CC SUBs to WW spend is a good illustration of the way points collection is likely to go and why people are so negative.

WW spend is purchasing Qantas points at 1c/pt because each 1,000 points cost you $10 off your shop.

CC SUBs amount to purchasing Qantas points at ~0.4c/pt taking into the annual fee. A few years ago it was closer to 0.2c/pt — so the cost has already doubled pre-RBA changes.

And for $6,000 spend, you're earning 90K points with a card while you're earning, maybe, 3K to 10K points at WW (depending on the promotion at WW).

Put another way, you're paying 2.5x more for your points and earning 90% fewer points for the same spend.

When you take into account that, post devaluation, most people are unlikely to get much more than 1.5-2.5c/pt in value when they redeem their points and they have to deal with the challenges of award availability, lower status earn, etc, it is easy to see why the mood of the thread is that way it is.

So we are better off taking the WW cash instead of QFF points? I figure any points I might earn are small beer and so I always take the cash.

 

[Human]

So we are better off taking the WW cash instead of QFF points? I figure any points I might earn are small beer and so I always take the cash.

As always, it depends on what you use the Qantas points for. If you can redeem them for a business class flight with, say, 3-5c per point value, then it's most definitely better to take the points rather than the cash. A couple of years ago I redeemed Qantas points for a JAL first class flight and got value of well over 10c per Qantas point. That was admittedly a one-off, but it demonstrates how much value you can get from Qantas points, at least occasionally.

As for points from supermarket spending being "small beer", again, it depends on your situation. If you have a family and make thoughtful use of bonus points offers, the number of points you can earn are definitely not "small beer".

I know we're talking about Qantas points and Everyway Rewards, but in my case I focus on Flybuys/Coles and over the past several years I've consistently averaged about 250,000 Flybuys points per year -- that 125,000 Velocity points is almost enough for one long-haul business class flight -- from grocery spending which I would have made anyway (and spending on gift cards for use in stores that I would have spent in anyway). Definitely not "small beer", and for that I'm more than happy to sacrifice the $1250 "Flybuys Dollars" which I could have used the points to redeem.

 

[Beer_budget]

WW spend is purchasing Qantas points at 1c/pt because each 1,000 points cost you $10 off your shop.

It's a fair point, except it presupposes that the alternative is actually $10 off your shop.

Personally though, I wouldn't bother with Flybuys for the money off the shop, so I don't consider it a relevant factor in considering the value of a Flybuys point to me - only what it's worth in equivalent KFF miles.

 

[prozac]

As always, it depends on what you use the Qantas points for. If you can redeem them for a business class flight with, say, 3-5c per point value, then it's most definitely better to take the points rather than the cash. A couple of years ago I redeemed Qantas points for a JAL first class flight and got value of well over 10c per Qantas point. That was admittedly a one-off, but it demonstrates how much value you can get from Qantas points, at least occasionally.

As for points from supermarket spending being "small beer", again, it depends on your situation. If you have a family and make thoughtful use of bonus points offers, the number of points you can earn are definitely not "small beer".

I know we're talking about Qantas points and Everyway Rewards, but in my case I focus on Flybuys/Coles and over the past several years I've consistently averaged about 250,000 Flybuys points per year -- that 125,000 Velocity points is almost enough for one long-haul business class flight -- from grocery spending which I would have made anyway (and spending on gift cards for use in stores that I would have spent in anyway). Definitely not "small beer", and for that I'm more than happy to sacrifice the $1250 "Flybuys Dollars" which I could have used the points to redeem.

Thanks for your comprehensive reply. I have only managed $367 / 12 months cash savings in EDR as we are a couple not a family, so for me it is indeed small beer. The cash off is of benefit and I see that that savings would amount to 36,000 QFF points. I suppose everything adds.
Coles shopping has been non-existent this year as I cannot seem to teach the algorythm to learn I cannot spend $90 week on week for 4 weeks.

 

[burmans]

Thanks for your comprehensive reply. I have only managed $367 / 12 months cash savings in EDR as we are a couple not a family, so for me it is indeed small beer. The cash off is of benefit and I see that that savings would amount to 36,000 QFF points. I suppose everything adds.
Coles shopping has been non-existent this year as I cannot seem to teach the algorythm to learn I cannot spend $90 week on week for 4 weeks.

Try getting a new card, I’ve been doing most of our shopping but started using my wife’s card and she started getting some amazing offers. From reading the flybuys thread multiple cards seems the way to go to get good offers, in particular stopping using a card you previously used for a while.

 

[prozac]

Try getting a new card, I’ve been doing most of our shopping but started using my wife’s card and she started getting some amazing offers. From reading the flybuys thread multiple cards seems the way to go to get good offers, in particular stopping using a card you previously used for a while.

Haven't used MrsPs card in about a month. Still waiting...

 

[33kft]

WW spend is purchasing Qantas points at 1c/pt because each 1,000 points cost you $10 off your shop.

Only if you insist on misusing mathematics.

If you are serious, then I'd counter that taking the woolworths credit off shop is purchasing $10 at the a cost of $30 because of the potential outsized value extracted from QFF points when used for flight redemptions. That of course would then devolve into an argument about whether you could even get a redemption and is completely unnecessary because we've never used that as the basis of value of points acquisition, only points redemption, which is not what you said above (purchasing).

When we talk about cost of acquisition of points, it is NOT the cost of alternate redemption options, it is the additional fees or surcharges that you paid to acquire the benefit that you selected. For woolworths, I pay no nominal surcharge to recieve those points, therefore the cost of acquisition is 0c. The most you could argue is the cost differential between Woolworths and other retailers and then we go right down a slippery slope that is irrelevant as we don't seem to apply this to any other acquisition source.

I haven't seen a similar calculation done for all the myriad of redemption options you have for credit card partners, either. Only for this specific redemption option which in the eyes of most is a lower value outcome than the QFF redemption option.

When you take into account that, post devaluation, most people are unlikely to get much more than 1.5-2.5c/pt in value when they redeem their points and they have to deal with the challenges of award availability, lower status earn, etc, it is easy to see why the mood of the thread is that way it is.

Well that just means they aren't still in the game. Every purchase at woolworths earns 3 points per dollar via QF Marketplace with zero surcharge (0c acquisition) plus if you have the QF Amex you get another 1ppd. That's 4ppd just on spend, without counting the rewards piece. Perhaps the additional 1.25c you get on the general credit card spend may disappear with card surcharges going away, but you're still earning at 4 x what you'd earn anywhere else with card spend today.

Some people may refuse to optimise. That's on them. FF programs have always been about focus and optimisation. If you don't leverage what you have available, you're not going to get benefits.

Also how's complaining about reduced point earn potential (especially for the everyday punter) and award seat availability in the same breath? It's like it could rain in the desert and a bunch of people would whinge about getting wet.

 

[equus]

I redeemed Qantas points for a JAL first class flight and got value of well over 10c per Qantas point. That was admittedly a one-off, but it demonstrates how much value you can get from Qantas points, at least occasionally.

But did you get 10c per point of value? The actual value you got was what you would otherwise have paid out in cash. If you were willing to pay cash for that JAL first class flight, then you got that value - but if you were only willing to pay for economny, then you got the cash value of an economy fare, plus whatever intangible benfit you assign to the better experience (which must be less than the cash cost as you could only value it at that amount if you were prepared to pay that much).