Are LCC viable for long haul travel

[kelvedon]

With IAG launching a long haul LCC called Level in June, this article from the BBC discusses the suitability of this product for longer flights.
Norwegian's Trans Atlantic services are soon to be rivaled by Boost, an Air France subsidiary, but is Europe- Australasia too far for this business model?

Can long-haul air travel also be low cost? - BBC News

http://www.flylevel.com

 

[Awesom Andy]

The longer the flight is, the greater the portion of the overall costs is spent on fuel, and it is also more difficult for pax to forgo food, entertainment, and possibly luggage. The only possible saving grace is pax booking on them based on the impression of being cheaper than legacy airlines (even though they may not be). My personal opinion is that the idea of long-haul LCC would eventually crash and burn, but we shall see. If one must get this to work, they will need to use the LCC to either find good capacity for routes that are currently not being served (although one must wonder why if such routes exist, legacy airlines have not served them yet), or replace routes that are currently served by legacy airlines.

 

[NZflygirl]

I think they are. Many travellers just want the cheapest way of getting there. I tried scootbiz recently and after that experience and looking a bit further into the various economy products to buy I think Y is doable. Although I guess Oz-SIN is really medium haul.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

.. but is Europe- Australasia too far for this business model?

They've all failed so far! And it's not a new concept.

Flights up to about 10 hours seem viable (AU-HNL, Japan, and flights TATL). Longer than that don't seem to work (Air Asia cancelled London - although there's rumour they might bring them back. Hong Kong Airlines cancelled their flights to London).

The hype around Scoot to Athens received a lot of press - with 'fares of $399 to Europe'. Except that was one way, no extras. That gives a return price of $800 plus bags and food. Legacy airlines are selling Europe return for $1000 with all the extras included.

 

[moa999]

Level isn't an LCC - it's a marketing strategy.
Flying under the Iberia AOC using Iberia crew and planes.
Essentially let's IAG use the Spanish cost base without the Spanish name.

Air Asia X, Scoot and Jetstar Int have 30+ widebodies flying the Asia Pacific so there is definitely a market, even if it's not massively profitable

 

[straitman]

Air Asia X, Scoot and Jetstar Int have 30+ widebodies flying the Asia Pacific so there is definitely a market, even if it's not massively profitable

I am sure that's how they go about it. A small profit on many flights eventually equals a big profit.

 

[kpc]

Last month, we flew on a daytime flight KUL to SYD on AK for $180 each including seat selection, 2 meals, 25 kg luggage and credit card fee....can't complain about that !!

 

[Awesom Andy]

Last month, we flew on a daytime flight KUL to SYD on AK for $180 each including seat selection, 2 meals, 25 kg luggage and credit card fee....can't complain about that !!

It's fine at that price, but I wonder if you have even paid your share of the fuel that the plane used.

 

[JohnK]

Only if the alternatives are more expensive but even then one needs to take comfort into consideration.

For me most of the time I can get Qantas economy cheaply if I am able to plan ahead. SYD-HKG on QF 747 and HKG-BKK on EK A380 for ~$850 return in June including 40kgs of luggage and decent airline food.

A friend uses Scoot for OOL-BKK as he keeps his clothes and golf clubs in Pattaya and just has carryon with him. He gets those flights cheaply on sale so it's suitable for him.

 

[ethernet]

I looked at Air Asia to BKK, then Eurowings to Germany. It then turned out BKK via Oman was gettable for 600aud odd.
I would say long haul LCC will only work if they stop overcharging for luggage for starters.

 

[moa999]

I agree some of the ++ charges are ridiculous, but that's the model.
They lose money on the base fares and make it up on the extras.

As a result in a short trip if you are happy to risk a bad seat and carry-on they can't be beat (I'll normally up for seat selection but that's about it).
Too much - and it's straight to a full service carrier where I have status

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Why Airlines Cutting Free Food & Drinks On Longhaul Flights Isn't A Bad Thing - One Mile at a Time

So I predict that in a decade an ultra low cost model on longhaul flights will be the norm rather than the exception. Personally I think that’s a good thing, since it makes flying more accessible to the masses.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Why Airlines Cutting Free Food & Drinks On Longhaul Flights Isn't A Bad Thing - One Mile at a Time

Yeah - I dunno about that article. While it compares BA to Norwegian, it doesn't address the issue of where BA and other legacy carriers make their money - from premium travel. Economy seats just pay the fuel. That doesn't mean cutting all the extras is a good thing.

 

[jetpack]

Saw this interesting new route today from Singapore to London. Connects nicely with Jetstar services to/from Melbourne. Could end up with cheap fares during high season when fares are on sale.

Norwegian Air UK launches Singapore service from Sep 2017 :: Routesonline

 

[dajop]

Saw this interesting new route today from Singapore to London. Connects nicely with Jetstar services to/from Melbourne. Could end up with cheap fares during high season when fares are on sale.

Norwegian Air UK launches Singapore service from Sep 2017 :: Routesonline

Current fare including meal/luggage comes to $825 SGD, which is consistent with fares to Europe offered by a range of carriers over last few months including LH, KL, AF, QR, MH & TK. Just saw an SQ advertised to MUC for $773 today. I know which one I'd take.

Wonder if they'll have some launch promos. I like the SIN-LGW schedule 0850 departure and 15:30 arrival - day flights to London are the best way to get there from SIN if stuck in Y.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Current fare including meal/luggage comes to $825 SGD, which is consistent with fares to Europe offered by a range of carriers over last few months including LH, KL, AF, QR, MH & TK. Just saw an SQ advertised to MUC for $773 today. I know which one I'd take.

Wonder if they'll have some launch promos. I like the SIN-LGW schedule 0850 departure and 15:30 arrival - day flights to London are the best way to get there from SIN if stuck in Y.

Those prices raise the question of when is a low cost carrier 'low cost'? Is it in name only? Or is it determined by price?

Scoot's $900 fares to Athens (excluding all add-ons) aren't low cost when full service carriers are less expensive.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Another interesting article by CAPA - Norwegian overtakes Scoot as second largest long haul LCC after AirAsia X: long haul low cost Part 3

There are currently 16 LCCs operating long haul services, generating approximately 440,000 weekly seats (based on OAG schedules for the week commencing 24-Apr-2017). The long haul low cost sector is by all measures small, accounting for less than 0.5% of global seat capacity.

However, it is growing fast, driven primarily by Norwegian, and will soon exceed 500,000 weekly seats. Norwegian's capacity is increasing by 79% over the next five months, reaching more than 87,000 seats after service to Singapore is launched in late Sep-2017.

There will be more than 160 long haul LCC routes operated this summer, including the 48 by Norwegian. Only two of these routes are served by more than one long haul low cost operator – Toronto-London Gatwick (Air Canada rouge and WestJet), and Singapore-Melbourne (Jetstar and Scoot).

After several years of relatively slow expansion and significant scepticism doubting its long term viability, the long haul low cost model is starting to make inroads globally, prompting several airlines to consider establishing long haul LCC operations. Air France-KLM’s Nov-2016 announcement on the establishment of Boost, and IAG’s Mar-2017 announcement on the launch of Level, will almost certainly be followed by other major players making a move in the fast evolving long haul low cost space.

There will likely be more than 20 long haul low cost operations within the next year or two. More significantly, the total capacity generated by long haul LCCs will quickly double – driven in part by the rapid expansion at Norwegian.

There will likely be more than 1 million weekly long haul LCC seats in summer 2019. The long haul low cost movement seems to have turned the corner and is starting to become more mainstream. Most of the early sceptics have been quietened, and the long haul low cost sector is now capturing significant attention globally, shaking up the market in multiple ways.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Long haul low cost becomes mainstream as full service airlines gradually embrace new business models - CAPA Centre for Aviation

Long haul narrowbody operations are coming – with important implications for route networks - CAPA Centre for Aviation

 

[dajop]

Long haul low cost becomes mainstream as full service airlines gradually embrace new business models - CAPA Centre for Aviation

I noticed though what defines "long haul" depends on where in the world you are. I see that in Europe it is defined it as anything longer 4000km! That defines flights to Bali from MEL, SYD & BNE as being long haul, and PER-KUL. I think many Australians, and most AFF'ers would disagree. I always think of anything as < 3 hrs as short haul, 3-9 hours medium haul and >9 hours long haul... I guess YMMV.

There is though a big difference between SYD-DPS and SIN-LHR.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Definitional discrepancies/debates are common - e.g. no uniform definition of outer space, or how many moons does Earth have.

CAPA has used an eclectic mix of regional definitions:-

This report counts long haul LCC capacity based on various criteria with some differentiation from region to region.

In Asia Pacific, all LCC widebody flights of more than four hours are counted. In Asia the four hour rule typically distinguishes between a short haul and long haul flight for those LCC groups operating widebody aircraft. There are narrowbody LCC routes within Asia Pacific of more than four hours, but those are not generally considered long haul operations and therefore are not counted here.

In the Americas and Europe, the key criterion is widebody LCC routes that cross the Atlantic. Widebody LCC routes connecting North America and South America are also included (there is a limited number and all are at least six hours long). The only narrowbody LCC routes that are included are those over the Atlantic that are operated with new generation longer range narrowbody aircraft – namely the 737 MAX 8 and A321neo. Hence, Norwegian’s new 737 MAX 8 routes are included in the long haul low cost capacity calculations for summer 2017.

As there is in Asia-Pacific, there are LCC narrowbody routes of more than four hours within Europe and the Americas using current generation narrowbody aircraft (as well as from Europe to parts of Africa and the Middle East). However, these are not generally considered as long haul operations and therefore not counted in this report. The same rule applies to the limited number of LCC trans-Atlantic routes using current generation narrowbody aircraft from Iceland to the eastern US, and from the far eastern parts of Canada to Ireland and the UK.

I always think of anything as < 3 hrs as short haul, 3-9 hours medium haul and >9 hours long haul...

The Norwegian LGW-SIN thread may also be of interest. http://www.australianfrequentflyer....-flights-between-lgw-82416-2.html#post1627806

CAPA noted 14 existing or planned LCC routes with outbound block times of 9 hours or greater by end Sep 2017. They speculated Manila-LA is the most likely longer LCC route over the next few years (almost 1,000km longer than LGW-SIN).

There is though a big difference between SYD-DPS and SIN-LHR.

There is also the ultra long haul categorisation, which wikipedia purports generally refers to 12+ hours (based on one article).

Noting FLCT, Happy Trails might also endorse a FLLH categorisation