Air India and difficulties on the India - Australia route overall

[Melburnian1]

In theory, Australia should have consistently had direct flights between MEL, SYD and at least one major Indian city for years.

In practice, this has not been the case. Even indirect flights such as QF's efforts via SIN were eventually withdrawn.

From 29 August 2013, Air India (AI) is commencing a triangular daily frequency from DEL - MEL - SYD - DEL or vice versa. On Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays, there will be a 1300 hours departure ex DEL for MEL, continuing on to SYD and back to DEL. On the other four days, the reverse will occur.

The Friday morning flight from SYD to MEL departs half an hour later (at 0830) than the other three days on which AI runs the southbound Australian sector. Perhaps it was unable to obtain a slot out of SYD.

The AI timetable has a note that 'flights operating with B787 to operate with alternate aircraft until further notice.'

FlightStats - Global Flight Tracker, Status Tracking and Airport Information is still showing the late August 2013 flights as operating with a 787.

One general observation: while air routes from MEL and SYD have had some ups and downs (for instance whether QF flies to PEK or not), in general in recent years the direct flights have begun to be quite successful: growing numbers of mainland Chinese visitors to Oz are the main traffic, but there's some leisure and business traffic the other way.

India is not quite as populous as mainland China, but it isn't a long way behind. Incomes may not have risen per capita evenly (a problem in many developing nations, and indeed even in Oz), but there must be an Indian middle class emerging (as has been the case in mainland China, Indonesia, Philippines and perhaps Vietnam). India is also a major source of migrants to Oz.

So given all this, why has Australia not recently been directly linked to India by air? Has SQ cornered the market via SIN, indirect as that is?

Is the lack of success in establishing direct flights due to Indian cities being spread out over the subcontinent? That said, individual cities have large populations.

How successful do AFFers expect the AI flights to be, especially given that they will feature the triangular routing between MEL - SYD or vice versa? If one picks the day, one can always fly direct from SYD or MEL to DEL, but some travellers may have to depart on a day when 'their' flight goes via the other Australian city.

JQ operates some 'triangle' flights between MEL and SYD: BKK is one example if I recall. PR used to, as may GA in previous years. Gradually, these routings have been abandoned in favour of direct flights by most carriers.

 

[brett-au]

If its a choice between spending 2 hours more on a flight and getting there that day, and waiting for a direct flight the next day, I have a feeling that people will fly on the day they want.

Will this work? Probably not. I feel that Singapore (and possibly Bangkok) are too good to transit through and ultimately fly direct to the city of choice. Perhaps a better thing would have been for AI to route via singapore with daily flights from Singapore to Melbourne and Sydney

 

[Dalescott]

I would think that the cost of the ticket will be a governing factor, particularly in Economy, in business it will depend on the service level. The marketing will also be important, what market are they going after. Are they after the expat Indian going home for a visit, they will need to be near or at the bottom of the fare range. In business class will they be going for the baby boomer traveller looking to go to UK and Europe with a stop over in India (like RB ) or are they after the true business traveller.
They will need to look at there market segment carefully, as this always affects who, and how much they are willing to pay.

 

[dk4]

One general observation: while air routes from MEL and SYD have had some ups and downs (for instance whether QF flies to PEK or not), in general in recent years the direct flights have begun to be quite successful: growing numbers of mainland Chinese visitors to Oz are the main traffic, but there's some leisure and business traffic the other way.

India is not quite as populous as mainland China, but it isn't a long way behind...

While India is a major trading partner for Australia, it is completely usurped by China. Here's a look at a DFAT exports graph from 2011.

So while your arguments in regards to population, tourists and growing wealth are quite relevant, I think that you also need to keep an eye on where our major trade connections are as well, as this will also influence the need for people to travel.

 

[docjames]

The advantage of SIN as a transit flight is it allows connection there to multiple Indian cities and to multiple Aus cities.

Most pax would prefer to transit SIN than BOM or DEL, which for many Indian cities would also require backtracking (especially DEL).

Why go Mel-SYD-BOM-Hyderabad when you could go Mel-sin-Hyderabad for example.

 

[Melburnian1]

docjames, if what you and others are saying holds true - and it's a reasonable hypothesis - there's every chance that these flights may be a failure.

The history of 'less well known' or 'non alliance partner' airlines into and out of Australia has been chequered.

Look at BI. It once flew to BNE, DRW and SYD. It finally added MEL. Now only MEL survives as a link through BWN to LHR, MNL and a few other destinations.

One wonders what AI's marketing will be like in Australia. There's a good chance it will be almost invisible or spasmodic, at least to the general population (as opposed to the specific migrants who are first generation in Australia). Of course, specialist travel agents may sell a lot of tickets on AI where there are suburbs with substantial Indian populations. Oakleigh to Springvale and Dandenong in Melbourne could be one example.

The bad publicity a few months ago about the dangers Caucasian or other lone female travellers face in India may have quietened down a bit (although there was another incident - race unknown - in an 'upmarket' Mumbai suburb last week) - but it will not help, as historically the 20 to 35 year old female backpackers have put India on their 'to go to' list.

Maybe in time what might occur is that AI drops one or other of SYD or MEL, and just flies to one of the two direct each way. This is what GA, PR and others now largely do (PR MNL - DRW - BNE is an exception).

 

[mannej]

Don't forget BI also flew to PER and dropped it...

 

[Melburnian1]

dk4, you are correct to suggest that trade between nations plays a vital role in increasing or creating demand for direct flights.

However, based on the DFAT graph, India has more trade with Oz than either the USA or UK, so if that was the only indicator, we'd have more direct flights with India than the other two. Nonetheless, an interesting picture of with whom we trade.

The Singapore small figure is a bit misleading because many of our exports by sea (or air) may transit through SIN. If we have to deal with customs agents or freight forwarders in SIN, that may create some demand for passenger air travel as businessmen travel between us and them.

 

[dk4]

... if that was the only indicator, we'd have more direct flights with India than the other two. Nonetheless, an interesting picture of with whom we trade.

As I said, trade is just an additional thing to consider, not the only one... and those figures were just for our exports!

When it comes to imports there is a decidedly one-sided situation with the USA, and India doesn't even rate a mention, as you can see from DFAT's 2011 pictured below.

Others have also added the concept of a cultural measure to the mix, and I'm sure you agree that our history (and language) obviously explains a lot of the old world connection to the UK.

 

[brett-au]

Whats interesting about those two graphs is why aren't any Australian carriers flying to Seoul? Surely the big players would like to fly virgin or qantas direct to their meeting in Oz. Why doesn't VA tie up with korean?

 

[Melburnian1]

jso, that probably deserves a new thread, or a contribution to the thread entitled 'The demise of QF International.'

KA flew between ICN and MEL three nights a week for some time but in a move that did not attract any publicity that I can recall, it ceased the flights a few months ago. Yet as you say South Korea is a major trading partner, a good source of tourists and as anyone who has been there will attest (and I have in recent times, more than once) a lovely place to visit with some quite interesting scenery, a great although still developing high speed train network, amazing cities, high use of technology and good accommodation options - plus ICN which must surely be in the top three airports worldwide (in my book almost as good as SIN and ahead of HKG, SYD, LHR, LAX and especially DXB).

 

[dairyfloss]

As a pretty regular business traveller to Bangalore (3-4 times a year), I am fine with the connection through Asia from Oz - either through SIN on SQ, or via KUL on MH. The last thing I would be doing is adding another Indian airport to my itinerary... one is more than enough! That, and the whole 'fake pilots' thing on AI a couple of years ago...

 

[wandering_fred]

Seems the discussion suggests so far that AI might be better off to consider DEL-MAA-SYD-MEL-MAA-DEL etc

Perhaps UL when they join OneWorld will offer a better sub-continent option. MEL-CMB-India.
I can hope for PER-CMB somewhere along the way...

Happy wandering

Fred

 

[SeatBackForward]

AI is a cough airline, I suspect even the middle class of Indians who want to travel o/s will avoid AI. Its a gov't funded airline that pales in comparison to some of the other privately run airlines in India.

 

[JohnPhelan]

KA flew between ICN and MEL three nights a week for some time.

KA is Dragonair; Korean Airlines is KE.

And you must be joking if you think ICN is superior to HKG as an airport!

On topic, I believe there is quite strong staff resistance within QF to flying to India, i.e. the crews don't want to go there!

 

[SeatBackForward]

Plus, there's the added cost of having to fit horns onto all the planes flying into India.

 

[Melburnian1]

And you must be joking if you think ICN is superior to HKG as an airport!

This thread is not a discussion about the world's best airports, but going by Skytrax's World Airport Awards 2013, a lot of passengers agree with me that Incheon is superior to Hong Kong. as Incheon was ranked number two worldwide and Hong Kong was fourth. Singapore was first; Amsterdam was third.

http://www.worldairportawards.com/

 

[jetlagger]

On topic, I believe there is quite strong staff resistance within QF to flying to India, i.e. the crews don't want to go there!

Also I believe, from what I heard - the Pilots.. & perhaps quite a number of the passengers if there is a more favoured choice.

It is well obvious the QF flights to/from India weren't making a profit, low yield sectors & even with the supplementary freight, appears not financially viable.

Good luck to AI.. Hope they have done their in sourced research :shock:

 

[seanpodge]

Whats interesting about those two graphs is why aren't any Australian carriers flying to Seoul? Surely the big players would like to fly virgin or qantas direct to their meeting in Oz. Why doesn't VA tie up with korean?

It is curious, particularly since, according to my reading of GCmap, ICN also makes a good (or at least competitive) way to get to Europe. Only around 300 mi more for MEL-ICN-LHR than via SIN and only 12 mi more for SYD-ICN-LHR than the SIN option, to give some examples.

I also wonder why services between Australia and Japan aren't really all that great either given the obvious business demand implied in those figures and both countries being attractive tourist destinations. Nothing from MEL, for instance.

The advantage of SIN as a transit flight is it allows connection there to multiple Indian cities and to multiple Aus cities.

Most pax would prefer to transit SIN than BOM or DEL, which for many Indian cities would also require backtracking (especially DEL).

Why go Mel-SYD-BOM-Hyderabad when you could go Mel-sin-Hyderabad for example.

That much is true, and the SIN option will live on for some time yet, I think. But they have to start somewhere, I suppose. For example, the same thing could probably have been said about China 10-20 years ago, but now from Australia there are direct flights to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu and Nanjing and I'd expect that list to grow rather quickly in the near future as some of the smaller airlines (a la Sichuan Airlines and its MEL-CTU route) start flying beyond China and NE Asia.

 

[whatmeworry]

One thing that has not been mentioned about India in regards to Business, is that it is actually a cough place to do business. Many entities would like to business there, but have found the many layers of corruption make it an unviable place to do business.

You will find many have tried but many have just moved their business to China.