Seat occupancy lower

[Melburnian1]

EF suggests that the Sunday 19 December QF677 from MEL to ADL (the 1035 AEDT departure, B738 VH-VXS) has only 81 economy passengers and three in business, so half full.

QF702, the 1020 MEL -CNS on widebody A332 VH-EBF looks to have 135 in whY. If there's 243 Y seats, that's occupancy of under 56 per cent.

QF613, the 0815 hours BNE - MEL seems to have only 35 in whY and 5 in J. That's 23 per cent of seats occupied, and is despite Queenslanders only being able to visit Melburnians in recent days given a long prohibition.

Given many are on holidays and in a 'normal' year, flights even on Sunday morning close to Christmas should be busy, these small number of examples give a clue as to how thousands of empty airline seats are running around Australia.

Cairns is a destination many like for Port Douglas, although Dec to Feb is when some avoid Qld due to the humidity and rain. Apart from Fiji, it has no competition overseas this year given how impractical, costly and time-consuming re COVID tests it is to travel.

 

[TheInsider]

People are exhausted and have lost confidence in interstate travel at the moment.

 

[Melburnian1]

People are exhausted and have lost confidence in interstate travel at the moment.

Yes, the biggest problem is 'will a Premier quickly again shut a border and strand us'?

Two years of relentless publicity from Premiers, health officials and the media about how dangerous 'it' is has (for the time being) changed many of us. Some are scared to step outside their house or apartment, and wary of close contact with others. To me, that's irrational, but I see it when I'm on board public transport and some clearly do not want to sit next to a stranger. That was never the case previously unless that person was inebriated or other-drug-affected.

At least if one drives (assuming you're not 1200kms from the border), you may be able to cross it to get back, but with using air/rail/coaches, there may not be seats available if there's an imposed deadline.

This can't just be affecting QFd: QFi, VA, ZL and other international airlines must also be seeing lower numbers on board, even where it's permitted for us to travel to and from.

 

[Big John]

From a personal perspective, we elected to drive rather than fly SYD-BNE.

If Qld shuts their borders , at least I have the option to turn around and drive back.

That reminds me, I need to schedule a PCR test and apply for a border permit !

 

[Mattg]

People are exhausted and have lost confidence in interstate travel at the moment.

Totally agree with this.

However, we should keep in mind that looking at seat factors alone does not give us any information about yield.

For example, Qantas could make more profit on a 737 flight that's 40% full than Rex would on a flight that's 90% full.

It's also why I don't pay much attention to John Sharp when he says things like "a pilot told me the other day that their flights to ADL have been close to full" - doesn't mean the airline is making money if the seats were all sold for $55 and J was filled with free upgrades.

 

[jakeseven7]

It’s really simple - we need to have a good couple of months of Premiers behaving rationally to build confidence back up.

QLD got off to a terrible start and spooked a lot of people with that massive mistake on the couple of planes from QLD Health, which thankfully the QLD CHO slapped back down quickly but not before it blew up in the press and scared people.

SA have gone full looney tunes with their sporadic testing plans which changes randomly - what is it now? Test on odd days then even days then every 1.5 orbits of the sun and if a leaf falls on you And then providing terrible testing infrastructure which jams people together for hours… Again this blows up in the press and some people will just say ‘too hard’..

Then you have TAS locking up babies (and their familes) for 14 days despite very clearly stating on their website that kids will be treated as vaccinated travellers (thereby serving 7 days max)…. So contradicting their own rules. Again all over the media.

Honestly I don’t really blame people for sticking to NSW / ACT and VIC!

 

[Melburnian1]

Totally agree with this.

However, we should keep in mind that looking at seat factors alone does not give us any information about yield.

For example, Qantas could make more profit on a 737 flight that's 40% full than Rex would on a flight that's 90% full.

It's also why I don't pay much attention to John Sharp when he says things like "a pilot told me the other day that their flights to ADL have been close to full" - doesn't mean the airline is making money if the seats were all sold for $55 and J was filled with free upgrades.

All true, but Alan Joyce says QAN is chasing money coming in the door, not (net?) profit, so that suggests overall domestically, QFd may not (yet) be profitable.

Fares seem high - recently $1700 in J SYD to ADL one way - but as always most of us don't have access to the total revenue per flight.

Mr Joyce has in the last two years made more than one prediction about the number of passengers QF would carry (load factors) that failed to become fact.

 

[Melburnian1]

Searching for this arvo from MEL to SYD one way, one QFd flight still has a $201 Red-e-deal while one JQd flight from AVV is at $103 as cheapest in whY. Four QFd flights have availability of FF classic reward seat(s) while all but one have Red-e-deal seats, albeit mostly at $237.

Happy to be corrected but in the last few years when Christmas was the following weekend, flights on this #1 route would have been full or extremely close to it on a Sunday afternoon.

 

[Melburnian1]

QF1509, the 1705 hours SYD - CBR (a B717) looks to have had 53 whY passengers, so well under half full in that class. This may not be overly unusual on this route when Parliament isn't sitting, and as a short hop it's subject to competition from surface transport, but it's close to Christmas and in theory there should be more than a few connecting passengers to bump up numbers.

 

[Melburnian1]

'The Oz' this morning has a lengthy story about a Transport and Tourism Forum (industry lobby group) survey claims Omicron has negatively affected travel plans for 74 per cent of Australians.

Yet sensible epidemiologist Professor Peter Collignon from ANU says:

“Will Covid-19 spread over the next few months? Yes it will. But the major consequences of infection (deaths and serious disease leading to hospitalisation) are already markedly reduced … serious complication rates should continue to fall as even more people get vaccinated and then get their five month boosters.”

It's mostly not QFd/VAd/ZL's fault that fewer of us are travelling by air, although high fares can be a disincentive. The 'Oz' article says many survey respondents are fearful of State Premiers shutting border down, especially in WA (already closed to all!) and Qld.

 

[jb747]

It's mostly not QFd/VAd/ZL's fault that fewer of us are travelling by air, although high fares can be a disincentive. The 'Oz' article says many survey respondents are fearful of State Premiers shutting border down, especially in WA (already closed to all!) and Qld.

Exactly. Fear of politicians is a much greater disincentive than fear of illness. Living 5 kms from a state border, I’ve watched the madness of the last two years, destroying local business, for little more reason than a politican not wanting to appear weak.

My travel plans for 2022 do not include WA, SA, NT, Qld or Tasmania. Don’t think I’ll be on too many aircraft either.

 

[Lynda2475]

QLD got off to a terrible start and spooked a lot of people with that massive mistake on the couple of planes from QLD Health, which thankfully the QLD CHO slapped back down quickly but not before it blew up in the press and scared people.

The risk remains if you sitting in the wrong row you will still need to spend your entire holiday in iso not to mention double the duration to 14 days. It should be test and release for anyone except household contacts. If you are fully vaccinated, correctly wearing your N95 on the flight and the HEPA filters are running you shoudlnt really worry about catching covid.

 

[Melburnian1]

Exactly. Fear of politicians is a much greater disincentive than fear of illness. Living 5 kms from a state border, I’ve watched the madness of the last two years, destroying local business, for little more reason than a politican not wanting to appear weak.

My travel plans for 2022 do not include WA, SA, NT, Qld or Tasmania. Don’t think I’ll be on too many aircraft either.

By extension, it's a huge motivator for politicians (five of the six State Premiers) whose polls tell them 'border controls are popular'.

Who'd shop in Wodonga or Echuca if shops were closed but alternatives were open across the border in Moama (admittedly not many businesses) or Albury (extensive selection)? Same thing will occur in Queensland at Coolangatta/Tweed Heads in due course when AP panics re Omicron.

But such border shuts are not popular among those who become mentally ill, who suicide, whose businesses shut down as jb747 points out or who cannot travel by any means to visit rellies or friends interstate (or overseas) or have them visit you. Let alone the joy of a holiday.

This is robbing young people of part of what ought be some of their most enjoyable years, and physically fit, 'young' self funded retirees and pensioners alike of the pleasure of travelling to experience places they couldn't, or chose not to, while working.

The costs far outweigh the benefits. QFd/Qfi and many other airlines, and their staff, are carnage on the way through, even though they've received/are reciving much Federal government assistance.

 

[RichardMEL]

Agree with all the recent comments on the irrational and constantly changing rules of places like SA (I mean you need a negative test to enter, then test again AT the point of entry and then a few days later.. if a left falls on the beach at Glenelg?). Heck, I want to go hang with friends for Oz day in a long standing tradition, but that kind of cough makes me want to scream as I want to be headed to the beach/pub with them, not lining up for a freakin test..

but that brings me to my additional point that some states requiring negative tests to enter, and as above once you've entered and then day X or whatever... this is putting extra burden on the testing systems (not to mention cost, but let's just ignore that aspect) and queues in Melbourne are 4+ hours, if you're not sent away after waiting hours because people want to get the test to get into state X. Now on the one hand the more tests that are done will expose those in the community that may be positive bu have no symptoms, but also make it so much harder and delays for close contacts or those with symptoms to get tested legitimately rather than ticking a box on a form that may or may not be verified (I have heard anecdotal reports that arrivals, at least some, at places like BNE and MCY aren't even being checked....)

so there's burdens on people and systems and the changing landscape that could see rules and borders change quickly putting everyone off.

 

[dajop]

This can't just be affecting QFd: QFi, VA, ZL and other international airlines must also be seeing lower numbers on board, even where it's permitted for us to travel to and from.

My SQ flight into MEL on Saturday has just 4 empty seats - a typical load for this time of the year. Of course though only operating 2 rather than the typical 4-5 flights a day, but a massive improvement over my SQ flight to SYD last December with only 40 pax onboard

 

[jb747]

The testing madness is simply a way of actually keeping the borders closed, whilst being able to claim they are open.

 

[Lynda2475]

make it so much harder and delays for close contacts or those with symptoms to get tested legitimately rather than ticking a box on a form that may or may not be verified

This!

All asymptomatic testing happening for domestic travel and other non health reasons (Im filming a tv show in Jan and need to get tested before I can attend the studio) is clogging up the system for little benefit.

 

[openseat]

This is robbing young people of part of what ought be some of their most enjoyable years,

This is the hidden generational cost that cuts across so many parts of Australian society. We have done everything possible by double vaccinating, and now booster shots, to protect the boomers and older. Now we have to open up again with no going back. Young people have paid more than their fair share.
It's almost a repeat of the privilege that boomers have with their property portfolios, thanks to a beneficial tax policy (that most pollies benefit from), that will ensure young people will be unlikely to own a home.

 

[Basalt]

This is the hidden generational cost that cuts across so many parts of Australian society. We have done everything possible by double vaccinating, and now booster shots, to protect the boomers and older. Now we have to open up again with no going back. Young people have paid more than their fair share.
It's almost a repeat of the privilege that boomers have with their property portfolios, thanks to a beneficial tax policy (that most pollies benefit from), that will ensure young people will be unlikely to own a home.

100% agree. It's called inter-generational theft and it's one of the worst elements of our society and will significantly impact the country for an age.
Where we are finding ourselves at the moment is a symptom of politicians coalescing complex issues into simple answers. Those who think and act (i.e. almost all premiers) on the premise that a pandemic is purely a medical issue are dooming us to failure.

 

[dajop]

This is the hidden generational cost that cuts across so many parts of Australian society.

The whole generational thing is a bit of media hype, before the pandemic a generation was broadly defined as what 15 years? At the moment and assuming another year of madness - 3 years is only 1/5th of a generation. Still important for those in that age group. But someone who is 14 will have different impacts to someone who is 18 say.

That aside, and in the context of this thread I think the border closures themselves are probably not such a big deal in terms of “generational cost” and robbing young people of experiences - instead it it the restrictions on socialising that have robbed people of certain ages, unfortunately. I was thinking that when I was 18-21 it would not have made a significant difference to me had I not been allowed to travel interstate (and I didn’t travel overseas then) but the lack of ability to go to pubs, clubs, theatre, parties, etc would have had a much more profound impact.

Having said that my nephew who turned 18 just before the pandemic started, seems to have navigated it pretty well, albeit perhaps not complying with every edict all the time ( I suspect) but admittedly being in regional Vic had it easier than Melbourne counterparts.