Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[ellen10]

We have just returned from travelling 9 weeks in our caravan. We travelled up though Orange, Lightning ridge, jumped across the border just before Queensland closed their borders again to NSW. We travelled though such places as Roma, Carnavon Gorge, Longreach, Winton, Undarra lava tubes, Cobbald Gorge and then out to the coast to Innisfail and headed south down the coast. Saw so many amazing places that we had never heard of before until we talked to fellow travellers.

What surprised us was the number of people travelling, so many caravans on the road in rural Queensland. Every where we went caravan parks were full, tours were full, you needed to book in advance. Restaurants had to be booked ahead, full every night, no "just rocking up". People we spoke to said that they would normally be flying somewhere interstate, overseas or going on a cruise etc, but were now exploring their state. Country towns said they have never been busier.

The Queensland coastal caravan parks were a little easier to get into because the regular Vic, SA, NSW visitors who have yearly bookings of 3 months hadn't got "out" in time. But still you had to book ahead to get a site. Coastal NSW was the same and every park we spoke to were fully booked for the October long weekend and at near capacity over the school holidays. We even stopped in the Hunter Valley and could not believe the people, no just turning up for a wine tasting, we needed to book ahead and restaurants and cafes full due to number restrictions.

Almost everyone we spoke to said although they love travelling overseas, flying, cruising etc, but would not be considering it in the next 2 years. They do not wish to risk it. A lot said that they were enjoying visiting new places in Australia or revisiting old favourites and once the borders reopen they will expand their Australian travels.

So I think their will be a genuine mistrust or extreme caution for overseas travel in the near future.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So I think their will be a genuine mistrust or extreme caution for overseas travel in the near future.

That might be a demographic thing?

There’s lots of young people who feel less threatened by covid... they will probably still consider bali and thailand? Lots of families with relatives overseas. 70k+ aussie expats looking to come home for holidays.

There’s a lot of pessimism around the state of the tourism industry... but in reality there’s still an awful lot of money out there... flights to nowhere at $3700 sold out in minutes. Thousands of bar carts at $1500 sold in an hour. Heck, the houses on The Block have reserves of $3.2 million. Plenty of cash despite the recession!

 

[ellen10]

There’s lots of young people who feel less threatened by covid... they will probably still consider bali and thailand? Lots of families with relatives overseas. 70k+ aussie expats looking to come home for holidays.

There’s a lot of pessimism around the state of the tourism industry... but in reality there’s still an awful lot of money out there... flights to nowhere at $3700 sold out in minutes. Thousands of bar carts at $1500 sold in an hour. Heck, the houses on The Block have reserves of $3.2 million. Plenty of cash despite the recession!

With regard to lots of families with relatives overseas, I think that kind of travel will always be on people's list but not the general wander around site seeing, tours type of thing. Not for now.

We stayed in Airlie beach recently and it was very busy with locals and lots of Queenslanders. The boat and sailing tours are suffering with the lack of backpackers and international tourists. But the restaurants and cafes were full to the brim and this wasn't school holidays! And the sunshine coast was brimming!

I think the pessimism around the tourism industry is the travel companies and tour operators. Most people are booking their own travel and accommodation. We have lots of friends doing just that. A week here a long weekend there, so easy to do it yourself.

And in the Hunter Valley lots of people spending up big. The wine producers said their sales were skyrocketing, great for the wine industry.

Yes there are many people whose finances are unaffected by the recession and many whose are. And maybe young people are less cautious but I know many that even though they love Bali and travel there every year if not more its not on their agenda at the moment.

 

[CityRail]

Well, Pfizer Vaccine is due to get approval from FDA in weeks and AZD1222 vaccine should have its results by the end of November, I don't understand why we still need to wait until middle of next year so that we can fly overseas again?
My bet is that international travel will commence in stages once we have a vaccine from January next year, where safe countries will open first followed by Europe and US in the middle of the year once vaccine is available in those places.
Harder hit places such as Brazil or India could need to wait until at least Northern Autumn 2021 for travel to resume, which could bring a hit to university businesses.

 

[dajop]

Groundhog Day

 

[ayushamity]

Well, Pfizer Vaccine is due to get approval from FDA in weeks and AZD1222 vaccine should have its results by the end of November, I don't understand why we still need to wait until middle of next year so that we can fly overseas again?

I think the problem is that Australia is aiming for eradication and a vaccine, although will be effective in reducing cases dramatically, will not eradicate the virus.

As long as a country has not eradicated the virus, Australia won't allow travel to and from that country. Look how the states freak out about just 10 cases and close borders.

 

[oznflfan]

Well, Pfizer Vaccine is due to get approval from FDA in weeks and AZD1222 vaccine should have its results by the end of November, I don't understand why we still need to wait until middle of next year so that we can fly overseas again?
My bet is that international travel will commence in stages once we have a vaccine from January next year, where safe countries will open first followed by Europe and US in the middle of the year once vaccine is available in those places.
Harder hit places such as Brazil or India could need to wait until at least Northern Autumn 2021 for travel to resume, which could bring a hit to university businesses.

Middle of next year will be absolute best case scenario, optimistic by late 2021 and probable by early 2022.

Best case approval by March 21
Pissfarting around trying to work out distribution other than to front line medical/police/military by June 21
Vaccine distribution and injections between June and December 21 - not sure how order of this, maybe first in line and you'll be OK.

CR, really happy to be proven wrong here, but irrespective, as much as I want to travel oversea's, I'd want to wait 12 months to bed in 'the new normal' as hate to be the early entrant who gets stranded oversea's, borders close, flights stop, and you are paying $10K first class flights back here and $3K quarantine again. Don't trust the government or states anymore. As proven in 2020 if you are out of Oz, you are dead to us (Government).

 

[jakeseven7]

As long as a country has not eradicated the virus, Australia won't allow travel to and from that country.

I agree with you, we will only be opening up to quarantine free travel with eradicated countries and only accepting quarantine period travel from suppressed 'safe' countries.

AU and NZ will become and some other Pac/Asian countries will become deeply suppressed 'havens' from corona I suspect for a few years...

 

[MEL_Traveller]

CR, really happy to be proven wrong here, but irrespective, as much as I want to travel oversea's, I'd want to wait 12 months to bed in 'the new normal' as hate to be the early entrant who gets stranded oversea's, borders close, flights stop, and you are paying $10K first class flights back here and $3K quarantine again. Don't trust the government or states anymore. As proven in 2020 if you are out of Oz, you are dead to us (Government).

Agree it could be a risk if borders were to suddenly close again. We have made a decision that one person from the family group will remain in Australia at any given time to manage affairs in case the others become stranded.

I disagree with the cap, but also disagree that the majority of Aussies overseas were 'left stranded'. Yes there were some caught in strict lockdowns in rural areas of some countries and haven't been able to come home. But there are equally stories where folk actively decided not to come home... until it was too late.

 

[Flashback]

Agree it could be a risk if borders were to suddenly close again. We have made a decision that one person from the family group will remain in Australia at any given time to manage affairs in case the others become stranded.

I disagree with the cap, but also disagree that the majority of Aussies overseas were 'left stranded'. Yes there were some caught in strict lockdowns in rural areas of some countries and haven't been able to come home. But there are equally stories where folk actively decided not to come home... until it was too late.

As I've said before though, some were caught by visa issues with their other half so it's not as simple as it seems.

 

[Nathant123]

My desire to travel internationally is becoming less and less as each month goes by. I still have a list of where to travel to next when restrictions are eased and I'm hoping by Sept of next year but there is no way of knowing. I bought a drone now so I have a new toy to help pass the time.

 

[oznflfan]

I agree with you, we will only be opening up to quarantine free travel with eradicated countries and only accepting quarantine period travel from suppressed 'safe' countries.

AU and NZ will become and some other Pac/Asian countries will become deeply suppressed 'havens' from corona I suspect for a few years...

Disagree in part. The 'vaccine' is being sold by Scomo and government as the silver bullet that gets us out of this pandemic + restrictions. Once of the selling points (and they will need them) will be unimpeded travel (as really '1984' over-controls could mean you need to be vaccinated to cross state borders - hope it doesn't come to that). They will need to guarantee unimpeded travel out of and back into Australia for Australian citizens. That may include COVID test prior to quick trip to Bali, one before boarding plane back here, and another on arrival, but I'm OK with that.

I do agree on your comment not letting oversea's visitors in though, we'd have to ensure they are vaccinated formally and officially, and even vaccinated with the vaccine that is approved by Australia (will be several vaccine's around and not all we agree with as a country).

This unfortunately affect's domestic tourism even worse, as only some international tourists coming here, but all manner of Aussie's ditching domestic for Rome, Thailand, USA, Japan, outer Mongolia or wherever they see fit. Australian government won't like that.

 

[CityRail]

Middle of next year will be absolute best case scenario, optimistic by late 2021 and probable by early 2022.

Best case approval by March 21
Pissfarting around trying to work out distribution other than to front line medical/police/military by June 21
Vaccine distribution and injections between June and December 21 - not sure how order of this, maybe first in line and you'll be OK.

I think vaccine approval is going to be earlier than you thought, especially when tonight's budget has assumed a vaccine is available in 2021, as well as Greg Hunt and various ministers have been openly optimistic about a vaccine early next year.

My worry about Australia is that if we only have 1 or 2 vaccine ordered, it will be too slow for those who want to be vaccinated in the population to be vaccinated. I think the strategies by other governments, such as Canada where they snap up a number of vaccines early is a better strategy.

With borders, I think the strategy is to delay an uncontrolled outbreak as late as possible so that when we open our borders and there's an outbreak, there would already been vaccine and/or cure available which only those who refuses one will be badly affected.

We cannot close our borders until the virus is completely eliminated from the world, as it will take a very long time which will significantly harm the country's economy and we will see a lot of people out of jobs already.

 

[ayushamity]

The 'vaccine' is being sold by Scomo and government as the silver bullet that gets us out of this pandemic + restrictions

But they will realize that it is not - People will still get Covid and we will not eradicate it.

The annoying thing is that Australia publicly declares it is going for suppression, not elimination. But their definition of suppression is near elimination.

What happened to flattening the curve ? Building hospital capacities to not overwhelm the health system.

As soon as we start getting cases from overseas, borders will shut again

 

[VPS]

I think vaccine approval is going to be earlier than you thought, especially when tonight's budget has assumed a vaccine is available in 2021, as well as Greg Hunt and various ministers have been openly optimistic about a vaccine early next year.

My worry about Australia is that if we only have 1 or 2 vaccine ordered, it will be too slow for those who want to be vaccinated in the population to be vaccinated. I think the strategies by other governments, such as Canada where they snap up a number of vaccines early is a better strategy.

With borders, I think the strategy is to delay an uncontrolled outbreak as late as possible so that when we open our borders and there's an outbreak, there would already been vaccine and/or cure available which only those who refuses one will be badly affected.

We cannot close our borders until the virus is completely eliminated from the world, as it will take a very long time which will significantly harm the country's economy and we will see a lot of people out of jobs already.

you are dreaming again

 

[JohnM]

Let me correct something for you:

I think vaccine approval is going to be earlier than you thought, especially when tonight's budget has assumed wished for a vaccine is available in 2021, as well as Greg Hunt and various ministers have been openly optimistic about a vaccine early next year.

Hunt and various ministers are pollies and 'leaders' - they are obligated to be 'openly optimistic' (with fingers crossed behind back...).

 

[dajop]

I made a joke about Groundhog Day above. This has been explained many times. But in summary:
1) No vaccine will be 100% effective, especially initally
2) It will take considerable time for a vaccine to be rolled out, even to just vulnerable communities
3) Attitudes will need to change to accept a certain level of presence of the disease in the community, due to the vaccine not initially being 100% effective.
4) Ergo vaccine is not going to be a quick fix.
5) However as each day passes we learn more about treatments, prevention of severe illness, and longer term effects of contracting the virus
6) Testing technology will also improve over time

As a result it will be a combination of vaccines, testing , treatment and acceptance that will result in relaxing of restrictions. Timeline for all of this? Who knows. If you do, please let me know and I will ask you also for this weekends winning lotto numbers.

 

[oznflfan]

I made a joke about Groundhog Day above. This has been explained many times. But in summary:
1) No vaccine will be 100% effective, especially initally
2) It will take considerable time for a vaccine to be rolled out, even to just vulnerable communities
3) Attitudes will need to change to accept a certain level of presence of the disease in the community, due to the vaccine not initially being 100% effective.
4) Ergo vaccine is not going to be a quick fix.
5) However as each day passes we learn more about treatments, prevention of severe illness, and longer term effects of contracting the virus
6) Testing technology will also improve over time

As a result it will be a combination of vaccines, testing , treatment and acceptance that will result in relaxing of restrictions. Timeline for all of this? Who knows. If you do, please let me know and I will ask you also for this weekends winning lotto numbers.

Winning Lotto numbers are:

3 15 22 9 4 1 19

 

[Seat0B]

So I think their will be a genuine mistrust or extreme caution for overseas travel in the near future.

It might be different though for those of use who are keen to see our family members who live overseas.

Edit: Sorry missed your later post making exactly this point.

 

[CityRail]

But they will realize that it is not - People will still get Covid and we will not eradicate it.

The annoying thing is that Australia publicly declares it is going for suppression, not elimination. But their definition of suppression is near elimination.

As soon as we start getting cases from overseas, borders will shut again

COVID-19 will never be able to eradicate - we can only suppress and wait until there's a cure or vaccine available then we can let people to get infected since they have antibodies anyways.

We will always get cases from overseas and unfortunately there will be COVID outbreaks in 2021 in Australia and NZ once we open our borders as vaccine is delivering.

The difference, though, is that when we have vaccines and monoclonal antibodies available in 2021, most if not all patients will get recovered very soon and by then Coronavirus will be treated as only a little flu, as its always should be.

Therefore, as I always stress, we should open our borders in 2021 once we have vaccine approved and start delivering, so that we can travel again and ensure universities thrive with a flood of international students.