Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[MEL_Traveller]

Hvr - those are all valid points. And there is reason for concern with each of those.

But this is a thread about when international travel will open up again. Unemployment and changes in social rituals aren't going to slow the development of a vaccine.

 

[oz_mark]

There will be a new normal, but the old normal has gone, forever. Some people don't even realise what's happening yet, let alone what is going to happen.

Down the track, this time, this virus will just be something in the history books.

(There are some other things going on in society, but they ain't about the virus..)

 

[jakeseven7]

In the meantime enjoy our own backyard and help in keeping our local tourism industry alive (as long as you're not in Victoria!)

Really agree and love the sentiment but unfortunately with domestic tourism pretty much shuttered (the big 3 states) and international tourists long gone, people holidaying within their own states isn’t going to scratch the surface of what we need to try and keep the industry alive...

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Really agree and love the sentiment but unfortunately with domestic tourism pretty much shuttered (the big 3 states) and international tourists long gone, people holidaying within their own states isn’t going to scratch the surface of what we need to try and keep the industry alive...

A pretty big part of an overseas holiday is to get away from it all, get value for money, do something different, and have fun. If we wanted to holiday in Australia, we would. I'm not sure forcing it is going to make for enjoyable holidays.

 

[Pushka]

A pretty big part of an overseas holiday is to get away from it all, get value for money, do something different, and have fun. If we wanted to holiday in Australia, we would. I'm not sure forcing it is going to make for enjoyable holidays.

We would be in Rome right now. Yesterday we heard a family speaking Italian and we felt like bringing them home for dinner and having pizza and red wine. We just decided to have the pizza. . As a younger family we have travelled Australia extensively and have been to all states except NT several times. While we plan to travel to FNQ in a couple of weeks the only other place i want to travel to is the Kimberley region. We would like to visit friends in Victoria but We did threaten some friends - told them we will visit, thats the good news. The bad news is that if we did, we cant go back to SA so it will be a long visit with no end in sight.

 

[love_the_life]

Agree that there seems to be no end in sight, not even the NZ bubble is being discussed now, Have a trip booked in Dec which was a cruise from Melbourne to Auckland but think I'll be cancelling it in a couple of weeks. Can't see it happening TBH. If things change then maybe will try to rebook. All a bit bleh. And to make it worse, it's cold and wet here today.

 

[Pushka]

Agree that there seems to be no end in sight, not even the NZ bubble is being discussed now, Have a trip booked in Dec which was a cruise from Melbourne to Auckland but think I'll be cancelling it in a couple of weeks. Can't see it happening TBH. If things change then maybe will try to rebook. All a bit bleh. And to make it worse, it's cold and wet here today.

Weather has been helpful in Adelaide. Walked along the way to Henley Beach square and it was packed but i didnt see anything that alarmed me.

 

[love_the_life]

Weather has been helpful in Adelaide. Walked along the way to Henley Beach square and it was packed but i didnt see anything that alarmed me.

Actually I did a bit of hunting online - travel bubble is probably off until at least December and more likely into the new year, NZ are looking at Cook Is and others first and with the reoccurrence of COVID-19 here not under control they are not willing to even consider travel in the foreseeable future, which it to be expected and wise on their part,

 

[CityRail]

Actually I did a bit of hunting online - travel bubble is probably off until at least December and more likely into the new year, NZ are looking at Cook Is and others first and with the reoccurrence of COVID-19 here not under control they are not willing to even consider travel in the foreseeable future, which it to be expected and wise on their part,

I feel by December we could have a vaccine approved already which I would wonder whether it is too late for any travel bubble to happen by then.

We have news that the Oxford vaccine has passed Phase 1 last week, which means that we should have more news about Phase 2 and 3 in the coming months.

Moreover, if you read the news below, it means today is the worst day of infections in Victoria, which we should be hopeful the numbers are going to come down soon:

Modelling shows today 'should be the peak', Sutton says
By Marissa Calligeros
We've just recorded the highest number of new cases in a single day in Victoria, but Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton has revealed that the government's modelling showed today should be the peak of the state's second wave.
"Modelling, with our effective reproduction number that I have seen most recently, suggests that today should be the peak," Professor Sutton said.
"Now, I'm not going to sit back and say today is the peak. We have to see what happens in coming days."
The "reproduction number" is the number of people an infected person spreads the disease to.
"Driving that effective reproduction number down below one is the thing that will start to see numbers drop. As numbers drop, outbreaks drop," Professor Sutton said.
He is most concerned about cases rising in aged care homes, even as community transmission decreases.
"At the moment, I'm more concerned that we'll probably see a rise in numbers because the outbreaks are really volatile in aged care settings. The numbers can increase very significantly in a very short period of time even as community transmission might be coming down."
He said gaining control of a second wave "can take longer".
"That certainly seems to be the case internationally. But you get to the other side and we will get to the other side," he said.

Also take note on the date 8/8/2020. This is the day where Fung Shui master has mentioned the pandemic will get better.

 

[dajop]

And we're off again with the Virus by end of year, positive news out of Oxford stories. It feels like Groundhog Day.

BTW: I have no doubt there could be a vaccine that has proven efficacy against the virus by the end of the year. Whether it has proven safety is a whole different matter ....

 

[VPS]

I feel by December we could have a vaccine approved already which I would wonder whether it is too late for any travel bubble to happen by then.

We have news that the Oxford vaccine has passed Phase 1 last week, which means that we should have more news about Phase 2 and 3 in the coming months.

Moreover, if you read the news below, it means today is the worst day of infections in Victoria, which we should be hopeful the numbers are going to come down soon:



Also take note on the date 8/8/2020. This is the day where Fung Shui master has mentioned the pandemic will get better.

your optimism never ceases to amaze me - we're nearly at the end of July. Do you honestly believe the hype in the press that there will be a vaccine ready this year?

 

[Pushka]

your optimism never ceases to amaze me - we're nearly at the end of July. Do you honestly believe the hype in the press that there will be a vaccine ready this year?

Not this year that will be generally available but the Oxford one does have legs. I’d say this time next year things will be much better.

 

[CityRail]

your optimism never ceases to amaze me - we're nearly at the end of July. Do you honestly believe the hype in the press that there will be a vaccine ready this year?

Possibly approved, but yet to be widely available.

I think more important than vaccine, should be the development of a cure. There are some promising cure that I feel our mainstream media are too focus on a vaccine than on a cure.

I know a cure could potentially take longer, or could be shorter because we have a lot of patients waiting to get into clinical trials.

Once we have a cure, then I am sure things can change quickly to reopen the borders without the need of a vaccine.

 

[kpc]

I feel by December we could have a vaccine approved already which I would wonder whether it is too late for any travel bubble to happen by then.

We have news that the Oxford vaccine has passed Phase 1 last week, which means that we should have more news about Phase 2 and 3 in the coming months.

Why don't you google Phase 2 and 3 trials?....you will then understand the ludicrous nature of your first sentence! I too would love a vaccine by December 2020 but the reality is that, if there is an effective one available for the general population, it must be at least 12-18 months away!

 

[jakeseven7]

Moreover, if you read the news below, it means today is the worst day of infections in Victoria, which we should be hopeful the numbers are going to come down soon:

Did you even read it properly? Because that is not what it says at all I'm afraid....

 

[Himeno]

Again, vaccines normally take 5-10 years to develop. The estimate to do so, with the needed testing and approvals, but without the normal red tape and funding issues, is 12-18 months. The first vaccines entered testing in March.
As such, it is unlikely that any vaccine will have passed all required testing and gotten the needed approvals before March.

The last WHO vaccine update listed 166 candidate vaccines, of which only 25 were in clinical trials with only 4 in current phase 3 trials and another about to start.


The best news in regards to a vaccine has come from a recent study out of Singapore about memory T cells which has found the following:
- all recovered SARS-CoV-2 patients have Covid specific memory T cells.
- those same T cells have been found in SARS-CoV-1 recovered patents after 17 years, who have not gotten SARS-CoV-2.
- these T cells have also been found in some part of the general population who haven't had either SARS or Covid.
This suggests that there is at least some level of resistance to Covid in the general population and that coronavirus specific T cells are long lasting.
Memory T cells are a type of immune cell which detect specific pathogens that the immune system has encountered before, then produce the necessary antibodies to attack that pathogen.

If we can work out which virus these T cells were originally created for, especially in the patients who didn't have SARS or Covid (likely one or more of the 4 types of coronavirus that cause 'common cold'), it could lead to a situation like cowpox infection = smallpox immunity.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Moreover, if you read the news below, it means today is the worst day of infections in Victoria, which we should be hopeful the numbers are going to come down soon:

Now that is some logical thinking at work....

 

[MEL_Traveller]

your optimism never ceases to amaze me - we're nearly at the end of July. Do you honestly believe the hype in the press that there will be a vaccine ready this year?

But there’s nothing wrong with optimism! Either the vaccine is ready, or we set a new deadline.

The doom and gloom and pessimism doesn’t get anyone any further towards hope of happiness!

 

[p--and--t]

But there’s nothing wrong with optimism! Either the vaccine is ready, or we set a new deadline.

The doom and gloom and pessimism doesn’t get anyone any further towards hope of happiness!

Well there's optimism and delusion.

Should I line up for my injection this afternoon

Link

 

[love_the_life]

I feel by December we could have a vaccine approved already which I would wonder whether it is too late for any travel bubble to happen by then.
...

On the money there - would be far too late for any kind of bubble. Besides the fact that it is highly unlikely and improbable that something would be ready by the end of the year (as in. 5 months away). Nowhere near through the required trials.