Middle East Airspace Diversions/Cancellations

[antycbr]

It does not make sense to me why QF did not plan for this and I assume QF9 and QF33 would not have gone anywhere near Qatari airspace and would have flown across Oman, Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea, Egypt etc.

Being able to reroute isn’t as simple as just deciding to fly a different way on an adhoc basis.

QF would need to be able to obtain overflight rights from countries concerned, support for diversions and alternates, not be sure the extent of the attack (was it just DOH or were all gulf countries going to be attacked and DOH was just the first wave?), being able to get space on the airway concerned given the congestion, consider crew hours and also passenger wellbeing to manage any anxious passengers.

Qantas is conservative and they don’t want to fly into trouble compared to airlines based in the ME who have no choice as their hubs are there.

Equivalent anglosphere airlines have outright cancelled services into the ME.

 

[justinbrett]

It does not make sense to me why QF did not plan for this and I assume QF9 and QF33 would not have gone anywhere near Qatari airspace and would have flown across Oman, Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea, Egypt etc.

Both flights were near India when the missiles launched. Are you suggesting they should have known before departure, which was the day before?

And yes they do go quite close to Qatari airspace, they’re not going to overfly Yemen. There are very limited routes as it is, let alone these airspace closures.

Plus you have all those QR, EK and EY aircraft scrambling to be diverted, QF was not a priority.

 

[elanshin]

It does not make sense to me why QF did not plan for this and I assume QF9 and QF33 would not have gone anywhere near Qatari airspace and would have flown across Oman, Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea, Egypt etc.

How do you truly plan for it. US strikes on Iran was less than 3 days ago. Before that happened there wasn't realistically that big of a threat of expansion of the conflict air spaces.

 

[Ansett Nostalgic]

Breaking News via Trump that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire

Good news and good leadership from the President to work towards peace and avoid more disruptions and people being killed.

 

[JU581]

I am sorry but if you look at the routings over the last week you would know that they have avoided the Qatar, UAE region since that time and they would have no doubt had overflight rights from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Oman etc. They would have been able to make Europe eg Rome and not turn back to Perth etc

 

[Seat0B]

The US has a base in Abu Dhabi, Al Dhafra which is again within a UAE base. It’s massive. I spent 6 months deployed here when I was in the RAAF.

And which was the target for an attack in 2022, with Houthi ballistic missiles intercepted. This took place a few days after the attack at ADNOC Oil refinery near Abu Dhabi, which killed three civilians. As an anxious mum, with Seat Son living in Abu Dhabi, I follow these things .

 

[kangarooflyer88]

I am sorry but if you look at the routings over the last week you would know that they have avoided the Qatar, UAE region since that time and they would have no doubt had overflight rights from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Oman etc. They would have been able to make Europe eg Rome and not turn back to Perth etc

Even if we accept what you are saying at face value and a reroute was possible, the important question is how many more miles does it as to the journey. My understanding of QF9 and QF33 is these routes are near the envelope of the maximum distance a 787 could fly safely. So then the question becomes where would you have to divert for refueling and what is the cost of that?

 

[JU581]

Their routes since last week have avoided the UAE. Please re-read my post. This is a big drawback of routing flights through Perth, perhaps they should reinstate their ops via BKK and HKG like they did pre the Emirates JV. All the Asian airlines have been taking the central Asian route which avoids the ME.

 

[justinbrett]

I am sorry but if you look at the routings over the last week you would know that they have avoided the Qatar, UAE region since that time and they would have no doubt had overflight rights from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Oman etc. They would have been able to make Europe eg Rome and not turn back to Perth etc

You are aware missiles don’t respect national borders?

This is how close the route is to Iran:

 

[Seat0B]

Global airlines: let’s give this bit of the sky a wide berth.

Emirates: LEEEEROYYYY JENKINS!

View attachment 452370

A picture being worth thousands of words in this case. And thousands of dollars in fuel.

 

[Seat0B]

I'm on for the 10th August so I have a bit more time for things to settle hopefully.

We are due to fly QR from Singapore to Berlin on the 11th of August and are taking the same approach.

And we are off on 19 August, so another one with my fingers crossed that things will have settled rather than escalated by then.

 

[jrfsp]

I am sorry but if you look at the routings over the last week you would know that they have avoided the Qatar, UAE region since that time and they would have no doubt had overflight rights from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Oman etc. They would have been able to make Europe eg Rome and not turn back to Perth etc

During last nights events the only available airspace was getting very congested with reroutings and lots of airbourne holding & additional track miles which the ultra long range flights dont have the space to play with.

The situation was very fluid with different countries shutting their airspace, at one point Qatar, UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain had closed to traffic. It may well have been prudent to return to PER rather than spending the night in Saudi.

 

[JU581]

And yet Virgin was comfortable enough to land in Muscat which is even closer to Iran. Please give me a break.

 

[Seat0B]

we’re due to head to Paris for our own wedding (!)

Congratulations @Berlin. Exciting times. And what a wonderful set of stories you will have to tell about the lead up to your wedding. Beats the usual "catering stuffed up", "flowers stuffed up", "it rained." I hope you can relax and enjoy your wedding and a lovely honeymoon. Best wishes to you both.

 

[RooFlyer]

Flying CDG-DOH-SIN next Monday. No e-mail from my travel agent overnight which I was relieved to discover.

 

[justinbrett]

And yet Virgin was comfortable enough to land in Muscat which is even closer to Iran. Please give me a break.

In this context it is QR not VA, operating with QR insurance and intelligence (Qatar was given warning from Iran before the launch). Likely VA15 was closer to Oman than India so the decision was to divert there.

QF is operating under a very different set of circumstances with no presence in the region and only going with what Indian ATC is telling them. Considering the number of airlines that cancelled services into DOH/DXB even before this launch suggests airlines are right to be cautious.

 

[JU581]

I am fine with caution, just reroute everything through Singapore then take the northern route via central Asia. Don’t try to skirt around the region and then get caught out.

 

[maccaisking]

It looks like all QR evening flights from Aus are cancelled tonight, (including mine). Other MEA carriers are operating so feels like a crew/resourcing catch up. Probably a long shot, does anyone have experience rebooking or being rebooked with Qatar? They still haven't told me about the cancellation yet, I found it on Google. I managed to get someone on the phone but they were no help, unsure what to expect from overall.

 

[justinbrett]

Israel has announced it will resume attacks now that Iran violated the ceasefire.

 

[RooFlyer]

Israel has announced it will resume attacks now that Iran violated the ceasefire.

Since Israel previously said they achieved their objectives and Trumpy is demanding a ceasefire, I'd be surprised if this came to much.

The reason Qatar and UAE airspace was closed was that they ( and, I've read, the US!) were warned by the Iranians about the impending missile attack on the US base in Qatar.

Its one thing for Iran to have enemies as Israel and USA, quite another to have the other Gulf states as enemies by damaging their economies by imposing a threat to their Airlines and capacity.