Middle East Airspace Diversions/Cancellations

[RB001]

Over here.

 

[Beano]

Two months ago DXB to MAD flew across Turkey. Previously it went staight across Israel and the Med. Saw Malta nicely. No marked difference in time. Now FRA-DXB via Egypt. No difference in timetable.

 

[dajop]

I noticed a number of European carriers were overflying Iran and have obviously stopped (LH, LX, KL). But QF and SQ weren’t.

Interesting flight path on the night things went down initially for LX176, ZRH-SIN:

 

[evanb]

There's a short vs medium term element to whether or not Qantas will reintroduce the temporary tech-stop in Singapore, and there's also some seasonality.

Additional flight time of the more southerly routing over KSA adds a relatively small amount of time. They can maintain the non-stop by increasing payload restrictions. Obviously they can estimate the impact, both in terms of fuel burn and lost revenue, and compare that to the marginal cost of the Singapore fuel stop. Even then, they may chose to tolerate the payload restrictions for a short time even if it's a net loss compared to Singapore stop since adding a tech-stop generates complications to crew rosters and aircraft scheduling. It also takes several days to position crews and make the arrangements.

If the situation persists or looks likely to persist for more than a few dats they'll probably reintroduce the stop. Added to the calculus is the seasonal effects on expected flight times. With winter flight times being less than 17 hours they have more scope to add additional flying time, however during the spring and summer months when flight time exceeds 17 hours (even close to 18), they'll run into much greater payload restrictions and have less scope to hold off on adding the stop.

Also something different to the first time they had to do this back in April 2024 was that on the northern route (which may be utilised on some days) they weren't able to transit directly through Afghanistan and only via the Wakhan Corridor. They now can transit via Kabul giving them a better northern routing. This is a somewhat minor factor, but it may help if a northern routing is required.

 

[jrfsp]

There's a short vs medium term element to whether or not Qantas will reintroduce the temporary tech-stop in Singapore, and there's also some seasonality.

Additional flight time of the more southerly routing over KSA adds a relatively small amount of time. They can maintain the non-stop by increasing payload restrictions. Obviously they can estimate the impact, both in terms of fuel burn and lost revenue, and compare that to the marginal cost of the Singapore fuel stop. Even then, they may chose to tolerate the payload restrictions for a short time even if it's a net loss compared to Singapore stop since adding a tech-stop generates complications to crew rosters and aircraft scheduling. It also takes several days to position crews and make the arrangements.

If the situation persists or looks likely to persist for more than a few dats they'll probably reintroduce the stop. Added to the calculus is the seasonal effects on expected flight times. With winter flight times being less than 17 hours they have more scope to add additional flying time, however during the spring and summer months when flight time exceeds 17 hours (even close to 18), they'll run into much greater payload restrictions and have less scope to hold off on adding the stop.

Also something different to the first time they had to do this back in April 2024 was that on the northern route (which may be utilised on some days) they weren't able to transit directly through Afghanistan and only via the Wakhan Corridor. They now can transit via Kabul giving them a better northern routing. This is a somewhat minor factor, but it may help if a northern routing is required.

If the situation persists or worsens - demand & oil price may be a bigger factor than what air routes are available. Lets hope sanity prevails....

 

[drron]

I doubt it is going to end soon. Israel has been very open in saying that it will not be over until Iran's nuclear program is destroyed. However to destroy it Israel needs a significant bunker buster bomb. They don't have one. But the US has The GBU-57A/B MOP. It is delivered by a B2 bomber. Nearly 3 months ago the US sent 6 B2s to Diego Garcia. A month ago satellite imagery suggests at least 10 which is 50% of their B2s.

Air Force's Bunker-Buster Bomb Could Take Out Iran Nuclear Facility, But Israel Hints at Other Options

The Israeli campaign to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons will be considered a failure if the centrifuges deep underground at the Fordow enrichment facility near Tehran are left untouched, the former head of U.S. Central Command said.

www.military.com

B-52s Join B-2s On Diego Garcia,10 Bombers Now At Indian Ocean Island

This is the most bombers seen at Diego Garcia for many years, but it's very likely that at least some of the B-2s will rotate back home soon.

www.twz.com

They are not there for a holiday.

 

[dajop]

And regardless of routes and cost I wonder if we will see a reduction in appetite for travelling via Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha and thus see an increase in demand for Europe travel on QF, and carriers going via an East Asian or even North American hubs.

 

[evanb]

And regardless of routes and cost I wonder if we will see a reduction in appetite for travelling via Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha and thus see an increase in demand for Europe travel on QF, and carriers going via an East Asian or even North American hubs.

With the exception of China, East Asian hubs are massively disadvantaged by even more airspace closures (Russia & Ukraine). Even so, transiting through China has its disadvantages, as does the US.

 

[jase05]

And regardless of routes and cost I wonder if we will see a reduction in appetite for travelling via Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha and thus see an increase in demand for Europe travel on QF, and carriers going via an East Asian or even North American hubs.

Heading to Cairo via DOH next week and personally I’m not concerned

 

[dajop]

Heading to Cairo via DOH next week and personally I’m not concerned

I suspect you are taking a rational view of the risk. it’s whether or not the media overplays it and thus causes a significant number of people to rethink is the question. (Maybe it’s because I’m just reading a chapter in a book that talks about how availability of information about risk affects our perception about risk and influences our decisions)!

 

[justinbrett]

I doubt it is going to end soon. Israel has been very open in saying that it will not be over until Iran's nuclear program is destroyed. However to destroy it Israel needs a significant bunker buster bomb. They don't have one. But the US has The GBU-57A/B MOP. It is delivered by a B2 bomber. Nearly 3 months ago the US sent 6 B2s to Diego Garcia. A month ago satellite imagery suggests at least 10 which is 50% of their B2s.

Air Force's Bunker-Buster Bomb Could Take Out Iran Nuclear Facility, But Israel Hints at Other Options

The Israeli campaign to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons will be considered a failure if the centrifuges deep underground at the Fordow enrichment facility near Tehran are left untouched, the former head of U.S. Central Command said.

www.military.com

B-52s Join B-2s On Diego Garcia,10 Bombers Now At Indian Ocean Island

This is the most bombers seen at Diego Garcia for many years, but it's very likely that at least some of the B-2s will rotate back home soon.

www.twz.com

They are not there for a holiday.

They can fly the mission from Missouri, they are known for their exceptionally long range missions (with aerial refuelling).