International Departures Decline Despite Travel Ban Lift

[kangarooflyer88]

Australian Aviation is reporting February international travel figures out of Australian ports, and the numbers don't seem promising:

The number of international passengers passing through Australian airports actually declined in February despite the border opening to tourists.

New data shows 436,000 international passengers travelled in February, compared to 442,000 the month prior.

I'm somewhat surprised to see such a decline given one would expect travel to pick up from abroad especially for those who want to escape the cold of the Northern hemisphere in favour of warmer climes. Then again, the (SUN)TANS program is laughable given how little support was provided for international travel. Don't get me wrong, that program did a very good job for domestic travel, indeed yours truly picked up a number of cheap domestic tickets to earn QF Gold status for next to nothing. Indeed, Uncle Alan is even stating that domestic travel is well beyond pre-COVID levels. But that international market remains a challenge - many may think we are still a hermit kingdom, and the fares I see ex-US or ex-Europe aren't particularly attractive.

Those are my thoughts. I hear you folks might be entitled to your own

-RooFlyer88

 

[SYD]

The perceived sovereign risk of further lockdowns is probably a turnoff and I imagine that there are still a lot of not so FFlyers here and abroad quite happy to stay closer to home for the time being.

The paucity of decent fares and capacity in and out of Oz obviously isn’t helping either.

I imagine the trans-Tasman numbers are only just picking up. Not to mention zero mainland Chinese tourists!

 

[Anna]

The complexities of what tests and paperwork are required for which destinations is a deterrent, plus the spectre of testing positive and either not being allowed to depart or to return as scheduled.

Airlines mucking around with constant flight cancellations isn't helping with booking-confidence either.

I think it will return gradually to what used to be normal.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The complexities of what tests and paperwork are required for which destinations is a deterrent, plus the spectre of testing positive and either not being allowed to depart or to return as scheduled.

Airlines mucking around with constant flight cancellations isn't helping with booking-confidence either.

I think it will return gradually to what used to be normal.

Agree. It will be interesting to see the numbers from 18 April onwards, following the abandonment of the incoming test requirements. Too risky if you were a tourist before that. Guess there will be a lead-in of a couple of months post 18 April.

 

[lovestotravel]

January school holidays and people on leave wouldn't have had anything to do with it..... of course Feb will be quieter

 

[Mwenenzi]

The number of international passengers passing through Australian airports actually declined in February despite the border opening to tourists.

New data shows 436,000 international passengers travelled in February, compared to 442,000 the month prior.

Not surprising to me. To me a lot of traffic is VFR (visiting friends relations) and not new tourists. 1000's of Ausssies return every January to go back to work/university/school. Will be months/years before tourists return to 2019 numbers. Need to have no restrictions.

Trans Tasman traffic is low as far less flights compared to say 2019. QF & JQ have very limited AU<--->NZ flights. Air NZ less than before. 40% of international arrivals into NZ are from AU. If they do not go, they do return (cross the AU border). The NZ & AU restrictions did not help. Too much hassle - bureaucracy for some.

 

[JohnK]

Not surprising to see soaring accommodation costs in Australia. That's not going to entice many overseas tourists to holiday here.

Saw an ad here in Brisbane earlier this month. 4 nights on Hamilton Island from $1950 per person twin share. Seriously?

3 star hotel in Pattaya for 7 nights including breakfast for 2 adults and child for $335.

3 star hotel in Chiang Mai for 7 nights including breakfast for 2 adults and child for $205.

I am not 100% convinced it's time to get back overseas but enough of overpriced local tourism. Enough paying $170/night for a local dingy motel that includes nothing.

 

[Pushka]

Well our May flights seem to be heavily booked but prices are now scary. February is always quiet and now that the PCR RAT testing requirements are easing it's much safer to not get caught in the net.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I think this summer was just a bit too soon. After a pretty open European summer (hopefully) then I think we will have a big 2022/23 summer season too

 

[dajop]

Bah, statistics. You can twist these figures however you like.

But for a start, January has 31 days and February has 28 days. Of course they "actually declined" as there were 3 fewer days! But on a per day basis, Jan had 14,260 pax/day. February 15,571 pax/day. That's an increase of 9% on average per day month on month.

Then there's seasonality. If you look at a 2019 baseline, Jan 2022 traffic was 10.9% of Jan 2019 levels, whilst Feb 2022 traffic was 13.4% of Feb 2019 levels. (2020 no good, as pandemic had already started and Feb 2020 had 29 days). Therefore accounting for seasonal factors (as determined by month of travel), that's a 23% increase month on month.

But really need to look at March and April stats to get an idea what is going on. Flights seem a lot fuller now than they were in February (anecdotally based on personal experience and looking at fare class availability on EF).

 

[jrfsp]

Global cost of living pressures are really starting to bite (particularly for inbound tourism ie Europeans) and will probably continue to worsen, expensive long haul holidays dont fare well during downturns.

By the very same article, domestic travel is doing well so not all bad news, contrary to the premonitions on here, seems lots of people do want to return to their QLD holidays

 

[Quickstatus]

Too early to tell - this reminds me of the risks of taking small snapshots of trends during Covid.
Best to compare at a minimum quarter by quarter or longer period
I'm not taking air travel if that helps with the statistics intepretation

 

[lovestotravel]

Global cost of living pressures are really starting to bite (particularly for inbound tourism ie Europeans) and will probably continue to worsen, expensive long haul holidays dont fare well during downturns.

By the very same article, domestic travel is doing well so not all bad news, contrary to the premonitions on here, seems lots of people do want to return to their QLD holidays

Indeed, off to QLD tomorrow, no interest in 3rd world Countries

 

[Must...Fly!]

Indeed, off to QLD tomorrow, no interest in 3rd world Countries

So why are you heading to...oh, never mind...

 

[RooFlyer]

The complexities of what tests and paperwork are required for which destinations is a deterrent, plus the spectre of testing positive and either not being allowed to depart or to return as scheduled.

Airlines mucking around with constant flight cancellations isn't helping with booking-confidence either.

That's absolutely why I'm not going international this year.

 

[drron]

Well in 4 days time we are off to SIN and BKK. No tests required.

 

[Pushka]

That's absolutely why I'm not going international this year.

It’s easy to travel in many countries now.

Post automatically merged: Apr 30, 2022

Well in 4 days time we are off to SIN and BKK. No tests required.

I feel like I’m missing something with similar experience to UK.

 

[RooFlyer]

It’s easy to travel in many countries now.


I feel like I’m missing something with similar experience to UK.

Yeah, and the UK is one country I want to go back to on the high priority list. But when I go O/S I like to maximise things (I know you are going for family etc) so would want to do a bit of buzzing about, preferably to some out-of-the-way places. That's where the complications and hesitancy comes in for me.

I've got a couple of cruises off WA booked for later that year, so that's pretty much the travel budget sorted. #

# Not that I've ever really had a travel 'budget'

 

[OATEK]

Yeah, and the UK is one country I want to go back to on the high priority list. But when I go O/S I like to maximise things (I know you are going for family etc) so would want to do a bit of buzzing about, preferably to some out-of-the-way places. That's where the complications and hesitancy comes in for me.

I've got a couple of cruises off WA booked for later that year, so that's pretty much the travel budget sorted. #

# Not that I've ever really had a travel 'budget'

It seems to me the biggest complication/hesitancy factor is that of catching covid while away. We did in March, but had daughter's spare bedroom to isolate and recover in. A lot of people would be worried about how they would be treated if in paid accommodation.

For our next visit we are flying to MAN, and driving around Midlands, Norfolk, Oxfordshire before hitting our daughter's place. And also having a week in Germany later, so that will be more of a test.

 

[JohnK]

Well in 4 days time we are off to SIN and BKK. No tests required.

You would still need the antigen test entering Thailand?