Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I'm not sure the positivity rate is all that meaningful in outbreak of this size, we know it's everywhere, the state is in a full lockdown.

They made a deliberate effort to tailor testing to make the most use of the capacity we have.

The cases will continue to rise, the testing numbers probably won't, so stands to reason the positivity rate will continue to climb, but it's a meaningless stat in this instance.

Cases are climbing at a faster rate than hospitalisation and ICU, and remember those stats have a few weeks delay. 80% single dose will be achieved next week and that significantly reduces the chances of hospitalisation and death, so they will start coming down, we just have to keep the vaccinations going up.

80% say end of next week means 1 October full effectiveness of one dose.

I presume the hospitalisation/ICU lag (more accurately its an accumulation of worsening cases at a point in time) is what aligns with the NSW Premier's statement about October being the expected worst month - let's hope its doesn't drag into November. But I suspect it will drag into November if say the peak of cases is reached on 1 October.

Does anyone get the feeling at 80% - restrictions will only be eased for the fully vaccinated in NSW???

 

[Batterytraveller]

Does anyone get the feeling at 80% - restrictions will only be eased for the fully vaccinated in NSW???

That would seem like the most sensible solution of the hospital system remains under pressure. also a great incentive to get the vaccination rate as high as possible. 80% is a milestone not a goal.

 

[justinbrett]

80% say end of next week means 1 October full effectiveness of one dose.

I presume the hospitalisation/ICU lag (more accurately its an accumulation of worsening cases at a point in time) is what aligns with the NSW Premier's statement about October being the expected worst month - let's hope its doesn't drag into November. But I suspect it will drag into November if say the peak of cases is reached on 1 October.

Does anyone get the feeling at 80% - restrictions will only be eased for the fully vaccinated in NSW???

You're diminishing the effectiveness of a single dose of vaccine - as the CHO (and the stats so far has illustrated), even a single dose drastically reduces your chances of hospitalisation and death. If we could pick 80% single dose or 40% double dose, we'd pick 80% single dose hands down. Double dose will be great but we don't have to wait until then to start seeing the benefits.

And yes, I think the October prediction is based on cases peaking in the next couple of weeks.

I predict NSW will get to 95% single dose without much effort before the end of October. They are going to withhold so many freedoms from the unvaccinated that all but the most fundamental antivaxxers will get it. I don't agree with the means but I do support the end and it will put us in a really good place going forward.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

You're diminishing the effectiveness of a single dose of vaccine - as the CHO (and the stats so far has illustrated), even a single dose drastically reduces your chances of hospitalisation and death. If we could pick 80% single dose or 40% double dose, we'd pick 80% single dose hands down. Double dose will be great but we don't have to wait until then to start seeing the benefits.

And yes, I think the October prediction is based on cases peaking in the next couple of weeks.

I don’t see how I diminish the effectiveness of a dose. The NSW CHO (and a number of others across Australia) has said on a number of occasions that first dose gets full effective at a few weeks later. Hence why first relaxation is 13/9 about 3 weeks after making 6m

 

[justinbrett]

I don’t see how I diminish the effectiveness of a dose. The NSW CHO (and a number of others across Australia) has said on a number of occasions that first dose gets full effective at a few weeks later. Hence why first relaxation is 13/9 about 3 weeks after making 6m

Sorry, misread your comment. But of course it's not binary, efficacy will increase gradually (it's not a flick of the switch 21 days after) and also we'll be at 70% in a few days so all of these benefits will trickle feed in gradually - it's not like we have to wait until 01 October to start seeing them. The hospitalisation rate today reflects a much less favourable vaccination rate of a month or more ago.

 

[antycbr]

Is there no exclusion for ADF to help vaccinate quickly in an outbreak???

I'm happy for the ADF to assist as they would anywhere in the country with vaccinations and logistics (e.g. the Pilbara/Kimberley with cold chain).

Manning border checkpoints (and associated logistics) nope, that needs to be the State Government.

The ADF have better things to do and despite perceptions they're not a bottomless pit of people - they wouldn't even fill the MCG. Our defence forces are lavishly equipped with high technology equipment for defending Australia's northern maritime approaches and for contribution to US coalitions, not boots on the ground internally.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Sorry, misread your comment. But of course it's not binary, efficacy will increase gradually (it's not a flick of the switch 21 days after) and also we'll be at 70% in a few days so all of these benefits will trickle feed in gradually - it's not like we have to wait until 01 October to start seeing them. The hospitalisation rate today reflects a much less favourable vaccination rate of a month or more ago.

Say hospitalisation /ICU is a reflection of accumulated cases at a point in time.

using “active cases” (cases less than 28 days old) as an example, this number increases even past the peak and keeps increasing until the downward number is less than the number 28 days prior.

I think we are saying similar things, just a different peak day. You think peak will be more mid September.

 

[justinbrett]

Say hospitalisation /ICU is a reflection of accumulated cases at a point in time.

using “active cases” (cases less than 28 days old) as an example, this number increases even past the peak and keeps increasing until the downward number is less than the number 28 days prior.

I think we are saying similar things, just a different peak day. You think peak will be more mid September.

I'm saying (predicting) the daily cases will peak in mid September and the hospitalisations will peak a month later.

 

[oznflfan]

Whooda thunk it just a few short months ago, we have cracked the top 50 Worldwide Daily Cases on Worldometers.info. Up to # 46, first half of the year we where around 140.

 

[andye]

Whooda thunk it just a few short months ago, we have cracked the top 50 Worldwide Daily Cases on Worldometers.info. Up to # 46, first half of the year we where around 140.

Still 149th in deaths/million over last 7 days

 

[Must...Fly!]

Whooda thunk it just a few short months ago, we have cracked the top 50 Worldwide Daily Cases on Worldometers.info. Up to # 46, first half of the year we where around 140.

Daily testing rate as a percentage of population is a comparison I'd like to see.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Daily testing rate as a percentage of population is a comparison I'd like to see.

Not the exact same but Australia's total testing is 1.2m per million (48th)

 

[N860CR]

Daily testing rate as a percentage of population is a comparison I'd like to see.

As an example, South Africa with a population of around 60 million is testing a whole 50,000 people a day nation wide (and sitting on a 15-20% positivity rate). Less restrictive lockdowns than NSW/VIC, National vaccination rate only at about 10% and hospitals strained but not overrun. Gives a little perspective to our 0.88%.

 

[justinbrett]

76 for Victoria today

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1432470052284993537

 

[MEL_Traveller]

It's two issues. One is the potential for new variants. The second is an effective - and widespread - way to monitor home Q and ensure compliance. This could be via phone or other tracking device.

It wouldn't be ideal if a person enters Australia with a new 'super' variant, gets home, gets symptoms, calls an ambulance, and the crew/hospital staff get exposed. There'd need to be protocols in place to make sure paramedic call-outs to those in home Q have extra PPE etc.

An example of why we potentially still need hotel Q: New variant ‘worse than Delta’

A positive passenger going straight home could introduce this into the community.

 

[suze2000]

An example of why we potentially still need hotel Q: New variant ‘worse than Delta’

A positive passenger going straight home could introduce this into the community.

Oh great. Are we allowed to refuse entry to anyone coming from there?

 

[Pushka]

An example of why we potentially still need hotel Q: New variant ‘worse than Delta’

A positive passenger going straight home could introduce this into the community.

Why? Tested negative prior to travel. Test negative on arrival. Test on day 5 and 12. Isolate at home. Did you see the figures on Victoria today? Zero from overseas quarantine.

Anyone calling an ambulance with respiratory symptoms etc having recently arrived from overseas, or having been identified as a close contact is properly attended to in PPE. That is standard in all ED since the start of the pandemic. Happened recently in an ambulance call out in SA from someone who'd been in Sydney and came back to SA. No one attending to him in the ambulance and in ED tested positive. All dressed in PPE from the get go.

Good grief. Once we started letting actual positive cases quarantine at home then the gig changed.

 

[Princess Fiona]

It's two issues. One is the potential for new variants. The second is an effective - and widespread - way to monitor home Q and ensure compliance. This could be via phone or other tracking device.

It wouldn't be ideal if a person enters Australia with a new 'super' variant, gets home, gets symptoms, calls an ambulance, and the crew/hospital staff get exposed. There'd need to be protocols in place to make sure paramedic call-outs to those in home Q have extra PPE etc.

If someone is in home quarantine/ isolation as close contact now and calls ambulance the paramedics see treat and transport that person wearing PPE, these same infection control principles are continued in the hospital Emergency Department.

There would be no difference in treatment if that person in quarantine was a local or a returned traveler.

We have also been doing the same for the past 18 months with crew on ships offshore that need medical attention.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Even more reason to hide under the covers.

Oh great. Are we allowed to refuse entry to anyone coming from there?

What's the point, every other variant of this virus has become widespread, if this one out-competes Delta then it will too.

Sealing off the country from every single logistics delivery service would be the only way. In which case - I'll have a one-way ticket out, thanks.

 

[oznflfan]

An example of why we potentially still need hotel Q: New variant ‘worse than Delta’

A positive passenger going straight home could introduce this into the community.

I could get run over by a bus this morning