Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[N860CR]

Yes Both in their 60s. One has both AZ and one is due for second AZ in 3 weeks.

probably time to start factoring that in before wasting literally 2 full days of people’s time. Both employed in private sector do not sure if they get paid leave for 2 days to sit in a line to not be tested.
Grrrrrrr

That’s right. Really, what’s the point of testing fully vaccinated people. Australia leads the world in the number of tests we do, and I think we are overdoing it. Given I think they’re $80-100 a pop, that’s a lot of wasted money.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

For what it's worth, this guy has outed himself and denies having been outside of the ACT in the last three months.
'I don't want anyone to die because of me': COVID-19 'patient zero' speaks out | The RiotACT

So most probably not the index case then.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Think it just underlines how difficult it is to come up with a list, and even then the list creates arguments.

And how similar on the whole the Vic and NSW settings are.

Yes similar settings at present, though they are not the same. ie Mask wearing differences. Including that in Vic it is all of Greater Melbourne, whereas NSW has different settings by LGA. Plus also the controls that VicDHHs puts in place are not always the same.

However the problems faced at present by each state are quite different. So just comparing settings without considering the problems faced is not really that meaningful. Though yes this time around the Delta Strain makes things more difficult.

• NSW has cases rapidly growing with more adverse health outcomes
• NSW - Number of cases much greater with many more from unknown sources
• NSW contact tracing not coping

And remember if contact tracing is not working well, then more infections will not be prevented. So one goal of restrictions is allow the contact tracers to be able to work quickly. If test results start to lag they did in the Vic Second Wave and as they have been in NSW recently, then that too is going to slow down the ability to chop off transmission.

When Vic had all of those conditions above it had much tighter settings brought in to get things under control = height of Second Wave (Then Called Stage 4.) The current Greater Melbourne settings are not as strict as the problem faced is not as severe, even though the strain is more transmissible. Some settings are stricter now such like the greater use of Tier 1 (ie 14 day quarantine regardless of test result), using rapid tests as well as PCR on close contacts in order to get positive cases found quicker and a different strategy for apartment buildings (positive cases quarantined offsite).

So back on 2 August 2020 in Melbourne when Stage 4 kicked in for example you can see that the mobility % decrease for both Public Transport and Driving was greater than it is now.


And with Sydney now it is a little more than Melbourne now is, but not a great a drop off of as when Greater Melbourne had the the tighter restrictions.

Also as restrictions were slowly increased in Sydney, you also see the mobility dropping over time. Whereas in Melbourne it is a much sharper drop when the various lockdown started.



So at present NSW has chosen to not go as hard as it could as the NSW Gov prefers to try and vaccinate its way out of an excessive number of hospitalisations, ICU/Ventilations and deaths in order in its view to stay more open. The counterview being that not going harder just means having to stay in lockdown for longer and most likely to have adverse health outcomes higher for longer as well.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes Both in their 60s. One has both AZ and one is due for second AZ in 3 weeks.

probably time to start factoring that in before wasting literally 2 full days of people’s time. Both employed in private sector do not sure if they get paid leave for 2 days to sit in a line to not be tested.
Grrrrrrr

That’s right. Really, what’s the point of testing fully vaccinated people.

1/ Fully vaccinated people can still be infected. So every case found allows the contact tracing teams to focus their efforts on finding all the branches of any transmission chain.

2/ Plus it would seem that the fully vaccinated can still be capable of infecting another person.

ie Peter Doherty in his latest weekly column wrote:

As we’ve seen with the global rollout of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, even outstanding products like the AstraZeneca adenovirus-vectored and Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccines may not protect against some virus replication in the upper respiratory tract (URT). And, while people who’ve had two vaccine shots are about 90% less likely to develop severe disease that requires hospitalisation (#49)they can still transmit the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, though likely at a lower level.​

.............................................................................​

What this tells us with respect to opening up Australia by achieving ‘herd immunity’ is that those who are unvaccinated cannot expect, as is the case with many other infections, that they will be safe because the vaccinated people around them have protective antibodies. The unvaccinated can catch COVID-19 from vaccinees who are fully immune but, nonetheless, may still be breathing out some virus.​

​

You can read the newsletter in full at:​

​

Setting it Straight | Doherty Website

Nobel Laureate Professor Peter Doherty explores all things infection and immunity in a new weekly column, Setting it Straight, exclusive to the Doherty Institute website. Read more.

www.doherty.edu.au

​

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Looking at Vic Exposure Site updates late tonight there was not a bunch of Tier 1 sites for a change, though a number of Tier 2 sites.

Though presumably the apartment complex at 32 Bosito Street had a case living there when positive from 2nd to 13th August (Though could be sequential cases in the one household) as some residents have had the Tier 1 Setting applied to them. Given was apparently discovered recently will quite possibly be in tomorrow figures and press conference.

 

[jakeseven7]

That’s right. Really, what’s the point of testing fully vaccinated people. Australia leads the world in the number of tests we do, and I think we are overdoing it. Given I think they’re $80-100 a pop, that’s a lot of wasted money.

As the CHO’s have been saying the other challenge we have now with so many people jabbed is that tonnes and tonnes of people can carry covid now asymptotically and are less likely to get tested because they are….

That’s why they are vaccinating like a bat out of hell. They know it’s all over now.

 

[OATEK]

Yes similar settings at present, though they are not the same. ie Mask wearing differences. Including that in Vic it is all of Greater Melbourne, whereas NSW has different settings by LGA. Plus also the controls that VicDHHs puts in place are not always the same.

However the problems faced at present by each state are quite different. So just comparing settings without considering the problems faced is not really that meaningful. Though yes this time around the Delta Strain makes things more difficult.

• NSW has cases rapidly growing with more adverse health outcomes
• NSW - Number of cases much greater with many more from unknown sources
• NSW contact tracing not coping

And remember if contact tracing is not working well, then more infections will not be prevented. So one goal of restrictions is allow the contact tracers to be able to work quickly. If test results start to lag they did in the Vic Second Wave and as they have been in NSW recently, then that too is going to slow down the ability to chop off transmission.
View attachment 255442
When Vic had all of those conditions above it had much tighter settings brought in to get things under control = height of Second Wave (Then Called Stage 4.) The current Greater Melbourne settings are not as strict as the problem faced is not as severe, even though the strain is more transmissible. Some settings are stricter now such like the greater use of Tier 1 (ie 14 day quarantine regardless of test result), using rapid tests as well as PCR on close contacts in order to get positive cases found quicker and a different strategy for apartment buildings (positive cases quarantined offsite).

So back on 2 August 2020 in Melbourne when Stage 4 kicked in for example you can see that the mobility % decrease for both Public Transport and Driving was greater than it is now.
View attachment 255440

And with Sydney now it is a little more than Melbourne now is, but not a great a drop off of as when Greater Melbourne had the the tighter restrictions.

Also as restrictions were slowly increased in Sydney, you also see the mobility dropping over time. Whereas in Melbourne it is a much sharper drop when the various lockdown started.

View attachment 255441

So at present NSW has chosen to not go as hard as it could as the NSW Gov prefers to try and vaccinate its way out of an excessive number of hospitalisations, ICU/Ventilations and deaths in order in its view to stay more open. The counterview being that not going harder just means having to stay in lockdown for longer and most likely to have adverse health outcomes higher for longer as well.

You say NSW has not gone as hard, but you have not addressed the factors that are different. These include infectivity of delta, some vaccinations, different or improved treatments. There are probably as many differences as there are similarities between Melbourne wave 2 and this wave in NSW.

This graph shows a different view, a simpler view perhaps, but demonstrates that NSW is doing much better than many will allow.

Source: The Australian 14/08/2021

 

[jakeseven7]

You say NSW has not gone as hard, but you have not addressed the factors that are different. These include infectivity of delta, some vaccinations, different or improved treatments. There are probably as many differences as there are similarities between Melbourne wave 2 and this wave in NSW.

This graph shows a different view, a simpler view perhaps, but demonstrates that NSW is doing much better than many will allow.
View attachment 255445
Source: The Australian 14/08/2021

Gosh enough with the state by state, it’s all over now anyway.

Traces now detected in Broken Hill. SA will be next.

 

[Spongbob]

Did anyone even bother listening to the debrief from ‘National Cabinet’? I don’t bother anymore… anything remotely useful?

I know QLD were ready with the hot coals to find out how NSW was going to ‘stop the spread north’… sigh.

The issue could be the messenger, and not necessarily the message?

 

[OATEK]

Gosh enough with the state by state, it’s all over now anyway.

Traces now detected in Broken Hill. SA will be next.

My posts are not as prolific as others on this subject. I was hoping to bring some balance to the interminable arguments about who is or sin't getting it right.

There has been discussion about what restrictions could be lifted in NSW - well here is mine. My household is fully vaccinated, and my daughter's household will soon have everyone over 16 vaccinated. Why can't we, and others like us. be allowed to meet up in our homes?

 

[Tiki]

At least here in ACT, that’s because it is now possible to buy the blue masks at an acceptable price. When they were first available, places like pharmacies and supermarkets were charging a king’s ransom for a box (I seem to recall over $100 for a box of 50 masks) - and they were very hard to source. So really h9me made or other fabric masks were all that was affordable and available. Now disposable masks are much more widely available and ca; be bought for $20 per 50 masks (or they could until lockdown started yesterday), I think a lot of people prefer them because they are easier to wear and breathe at the same time. YMMV.

I rarely go out much, weekly shop, Bunnings for reno supplies, so I just keep a cloth one in my car to fulfill the requirements. The other issue with disposable masks is that they are becoming pollutants and who wants to be cleaning them off the footpaths?

 

[jakeseven7]

My posts are not as prolific as others on this subject. I was hoping to bring some balance to the interminable arguments about who is or sin't getting it right.

There has been discussion about what restrictions could be lifted in NSW - well here is mine. My household is fully vaccinated, and my daughter's household will soon have everyone over 16 vaccinated. Why can't we, and others like us. be allowed to meet up in our homes?

Get it but it is a moot point now any comparisons, NSW have now missed the opportunity to contain it, they had a slim window which is now gone and the dynamics now for management are different now with large (and growing) number population of vaccinated, massive and growing lockdown fatigue and the Delta variant.

On your point on vaccinated freedoms. Agree with you.

 

[Pushka]

My posts are not as prolific as others on this subject. I was hoping to bring some balance to the interminable arguments about who is or sin't getting it right.

There has been discussion about what restrictions could be lifted in NSW - well here is mine. My household is fully vaccinated, and my daughter's household will soon have everyone over 16 vaccinated. Why can't we, and others like us. be allowed to meet up in our homes?

We are in the same situation - today - for grandson's second birthday. Everyone there will have been vaccinated with Pfizer or AZ. But it has been cancelled. We don't even have covid in SA (yet, but we will) but households are limited to 10.

 

[Tiki]

Another story of even longer wait times. All this feeds into to people being frustrated and less inclined to be compliant. Some in this article said they probably wouldn’t bother to go back the next day, despite being close contacts. Can’t really blame them. I think peo0le are getting tired of all the sacrifices being one way and caused by government not honouring its part of the social compact.

Frustration in Canberra as some queue for more than six hours for Covid testing before being turned away

The ACT relies on just three testing centres, which have been quickly overwhelmed as the territory enters a five-day lockdown

www.theguardian.com

When I was tested at EPIC, there were 2 sets of toilets available for people to use whilst waiting. This is s drive through, so your car kept your place in line, even if it held up the traffic .

Not sure what happens at the walk-in clinic in Weston Creek.

This is inexcusuable. If they want people to test, at least guarantee maximum 1 hour wait. Hire more people. Do swabs have to be taken b registered nurses? Can others be trained? Temp jobs for unemployed people? I physically couldn't stand in a line that long, my lower back would be trashed (sciatica issues). If it were walk in, I don't know how people manage. This is one of the reasons I mostly stay at home except for weekly shopping at slow times. I prefer to shop in person so I can grab marked down items. I keep 2 weeks supply of pantry goods in a separate place as emergency rations if for some reason I can't go out and shop. But the only way to avoid being a close contact (and forced to do these tests) is to stay away from people.

 

[Batterytraveller]

My posts are not as prolific as others on this subject. I was hoping to bring some balance to the interminable arguments about who is or sin't getting it right.

There has been discussion about what restrictions could be lifted in NSW - well here is mine. My household is fully vaccinated, and my daughter's household will soon have everyone over 16 vaccinated. Why can't we, and others like us. be allowed to meet up in our homes?

I’d have thought it was obvious by now why this was a bad idea before there is a high level of vaccination in the community.

1. The vaccinated can still catch and transmit the virus
2. It sounds like there are some under 16s in the household who have a risk of severe consequences from the virus, more so with delta
3. Indoors is a high risk scenario with an airborne virus
4. If someone bring the virus into that group it is likely that they will go out and spread it to others who may not yet be vaccinated.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Not as good news as we would have liked.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1426308471041916929

https://mobile.twitter.com/VicGovDH

Replying to
@VicGovDH
The 21 new locally-acquired cases are all linked to previously reported cases and 11 were in quarantine during their entire infectious periods. [2/2]

 

[OATEK]

I’d have thought it was obvious by now why this was a bad idea before there is a high level of vaccination in the community.

1. The vaccinated can still catch and transmit the virus
2. It sounds like there are some under 16s in the household who have a risk of severe consequences from the virus, more so with delta
3. Indoors is a high risk scenario with an airborne virus
4. If someone bring the virus into that group it is likely that they will go out and spread it to others who may not yet be vaccinated.

Actually they are under 6, two streets away in same LGA.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

You say NSW has not gone as hard, but you have not addressed the factors that are different. These include infectivity of delta, some vaccinations, different or improved treatments. There are probably as many differences as there are similarities between Melbourne wave 2 and this wave in NSW.

This graph shows a different view, a simpler view perhaps, but demonstrates that NSW is doing much better than many will allow.
View attachment 255445
Source: The Australian 14/08/2021

We are in essence agreeing that there are many things different, including the goal aimed for, which was my point in when I said that they are not the same.

In restrictions and in the problems faced as well in what is trying to be achieved.

And yes I did mention Delta.

With the Vic Second wave, they also made the mistake of acting even slower with bringing in restrictions and eventually lockdown. And then eventually an even harder lockdown.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Actually they are under 6, two streets away in same LGA.

From my interpretation of the comments of the NSW Premier (who will probably having a day off as per usual today - welcome NSW Health Minister) this week, its likely you will be able to visit your daughter's household if you happen to live in an LGA/LHD with a high level of vaccination. Just put aside the societal impacts of bringing more tiers to this lockdown.

 

[bcworld]

From my interpretation of the comments of the NSW Premier (who will probably having a day off as per usual today - welcome NSW Health Minister) this week, its likely you will be able to visit your daughter's household if you happen to live in an LGA/LHD with a high level of vaccination. Just put aside the societal impacts of bringing more tiers to this lockdown.

...and presumably that ability to home visit will not be tied to individual vaccination because it will be completely unenforceable otherwise.