Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pushka]

Isnt the border shut to non-Australians anyway? I know there are some people who are exempt - but this is hardly a change from the status quo

The number of non Aussies coming across the border may surprise you.

 

[dajop]

Isnt the border shut to non-Australians anyway? I know there are some people who are exempt - but this is hardly a change from the status quo

A subtle distinction for many, but the border is theoretically shut to those who do not have the right or permission to live in Australia. The group of people who have the right/permission to live in Australia is broader than just "Aussies" (if "Aussie" = "Australian citizen"). There are permanent residents, long term visa holders etc. as well. People to which the Australian government has said "yes you can live here".

Of course there are still exemptions granted to visitors as well.

 

[oznflfan]

I too will head to Poland once borders open, but not in a rush & like to see the ppl here get on over to see family who may not be so well etc.

I'd be very confident by next June/July we'd be traveling to good portion of countries, once that occurs, you'll obviously be vac'd & test negative on return & HomeQ will be the go, how exactly is one for the crystal ball one & who cares really, you'll have travelled o/s to family. Hopefully those instant testing kits will be in use somehow. Even if we have to pay $100 for it.

I don't imagine there'll be limits, just certain countries will be restricted as they've always been or 'highly not recommended'.

See you in the Krakow Rynek. It just tops our awkard Fed Sq. Just.

Just so depressing with current news, and I know eventually we will unshackle the borders, but it just seems so far away and so unattainable at present.

I doubt we will ever get to 80%, even 70% will be a challenge. But eventually even if we don't get there we still have to open up. The Four Phase Plan is just to get us to May special date and keep us quiet.

Still thinking 40% chance ability to fly to Europe July next year, down from last months 50% chance. Don't trust powers that be at all.

 

[twiningb]

They're not just doing it for the sake of it.

doubtful

 

[arrow]

Just so depressing with current news, and I know eventually we will unshackle the borders, but it just seems so far away and so unattainable at present.

I doubt we will ever get to 80%, even 70% will be a challenge. But eventually even if we don't get there we still have to open up. The Four Phase Plan is just to get us to May special date and keep us quiet.

Still thinking 40% chance ability to fly to Europe July next year, down from last months 50% chance. Don't trust powers that be at all.

It is so frustrating; especially when you hear all the daily hysteria from the zero COVID junkies.

Finger's crossed; eventually more infectious variants will leak in and we will be forced to abandon our zero Covid policy

 

[twiningb]

Interesting perspectives here. I’m a rusted on Liberal voter, and the thought of voting to the left horrifies me, but, I’m mad as hell at the state of international border restrictions and related messaging.

At the next state and federal elections I will be preferencing labor ahead of liberal for the lower house. Not because I want a labor government, but because I detest the current mob and what they’ve done.

It’s a shame there isn’t a concerted ‘open the borders’ political movement that people could get behind.

My starting point is similar to yours, but I don't think any party will be better even on this specific subject.

 

[Jousams]

My starting point is similar to yours, but I don't think any party will be better even on this specific subject.

Edit: I don’t want to get anymore political, so I’ll just leave my one below observation.

I’m especially loving all of our national heroes in the Olympics team jaunting around the Mediterranean at the moment.

 

[drron]

Well I am taking on the role of the optimist.With 19 million doses of various vaccines available in November and increasing supplies of Pfizer until then I am more confident we can reach 80% by years end.
A sniff under 14 million doses as of today.In the 12 weeks until November surely we can average 1 million per week which takes the total to 26 million doses.Plus the 19 million available in November means a total of 45 million doses possible to be given by the end of November.That equals complete vaccination for every Australian over the Age of 10.

So the government is going to find popular opinion firmly against them if they are not going to exempt fully vaccinated people out of Australia for family reunions and compassionate reasons.

So I have booked my award flights out in mid February 2022 with the return 3 months and 1 week later.Really looking forward to JAL F LHR-HND.
I have put my money where my mouth is.Though all fully refundable.

 

[jakeseven7]

Long term i agree, but i still cant see them opening up the day that 70 / 80 % vaccination is achieved.

I think the other states will be watching how NSW goes will living with it before opening borders.

For somewhat ‘challenged’ states like WA who have very poor healthcare infrastructure in general and poor covid management tools - I agree… I honestly cannot see them opening to for example NSW if NSW has 500 cases a day and they still only have the odd couple, even when we are all at 80%.

I just don’t believe it will happen.

 

[jrfsp]

Going back to overseas travel. The EU are reportedly looking at reversing eased restrictions on travelers from the USA due to the increasing number of cases.

At the moment Australian arrivals can basically arrive quarantine free, obviously if our cases were to increase then that may change.

Currently the EU has a limit of no more than 75 new Covid-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over the previous 14 days.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[oznflfan]

So the government is going to find popular opinion firmly against them if they are not going to exempt fully vaccinated people out of Australia for family reunions and compassionate reasons.

So I have booked my award flights out in mid February 2022 with the return 3 months and 1 week later. Really looking forward to JAL F LHR-HND.
I have put my money where my mouth is. Though all fully refundable.

And they won't care, as they're job is to keep Australian's safe.............................................................

Sorry, over last month or so getting really negative on things. Maybe by Christmas I'll be more cheerful and confident.

All of September off work and at home, maybe hopefully plan something for July 2022. Don't mind booking and paying for something that's refundable, just don't want us to have 81% vaccinated and PM still puts me in a tiny Holiday Inn room with cold slop for food and charges me $2,500 for this privilege. Wouldn't put it past them as 'reward' for letting me travel internationally.

 

[Seat0B]

And they won't care, as they're job is to keep Australian's safe.............................................................

Sorry, over last month or so getting really negative on things. Maybe by Christmas I'll be more cheerful and confident.

All of September off work and at home, maybe hopefully plan something for July 2022. Don't mind booking and paying for something that's refundable, just don't want us to have 81% vaccinated and PM still puts me in a tiny Holiday Inn room with cold slop for food and charges me $2,500 for this privilege. Wouldn't put it past them as 'reward' for letting me travel internationally.

I share your perspective and general sense of gloom and things getting worse. I veer between enraged and so brow beaten that I just can't be bothered.

 

[Pushka]

I share your perspective and general sense of gloom and things getting worse. I veer between enraged and so brow beaten that I just can't be bothered.

Today has been a particularly dispiriting day. Grandson's birthday party on Sat cancelled due to housing limits but we have not had community transmission in SA for a couple of weeks. Obviously not a biggie as far as the birthday party goes but the DIL is desperate to go to the UK to see her mum (the other Grandmother) and this was a real kick in the guts as she is already very down. I was so pleased when she started sorting out a large party for him and all his friends as it distracted her. Then today's announcement from SA Health. Add in NSW's numbers, and SA's obsession with zero Covid, like that can even exist anymore, plus our low vaccination rate and it's all been a bit of a cough storm.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Today has been a particularly dispiriting day. Grandson's birthday party on Sat cancelled due to housing limits but we have not had community transmission in SA for a couple of weeks. Obviously not a biggie as far as the birthday party goes but the DIL is desperate to go to the UK to see her mum (the other Grandmother) and this was a real kick in the guts as she is already very down. I was so pleased when she started sorting out a large party for him and all his friends as it distracted her. Then today's announcement from SA Health. Add in NSW's numbers, and SA's obsession with zero Covid, like that can even exist anymore, plus our low vaccination rate and it's all been a bit of a cough storm.

Feel for you Pushka, missed my mam and dads 70th / 75th respectively in June in the UK. I am booked again for Christmas but we'll see ...

i'm closely watching the 1st dose numbers, as i think it will give us a good indicator as to what the "stall out" percentage is in vaccinations, working on the assumption that anyone 'willing' to get the first dose will line up for their second with minimal drop off. its at 44.8% as of today and predicted to hit both 70% and 80% in october.

 

[Jousams]

Feel for you Pushka, missed my mam and dads 70th / 75th respectively in June in the UK. I am booked again for Christmas but we'll see ...

i'm closely watching the 1st dose numbers, as i think it will give us a good indicator as to what the "stall out" percentage is in vaccinations, working on the assumption that anyone 'willing' to get the first dose will line up for their second with minimal drop off. its at 44.8% as of today and predicted to hit both 70% and 80% in october.

My money is on the reduction starting at high 60’s. I reckon we will then slowly get to high 70’s.

 

[oznflfan]

Feel for you Pushka, missed my mam and dads 70th / 75th respectively in June in the UK. I am booked again for Christmas but we'll see ...

i'm closely watching the 1st dose numbers, as i think it will give us a good indicator as to what the "stall out" percentage is in vaccinations, working on the assumption that anyone 'willing' to get the first dose will line up for their second with minimal drop off. its at 44.8% as of today and predicted to hit both 70% and 80% in october.

Just popped down to the Pfizer Clinic in town to see if I needed my wife to make appt or just pop in. They stated they are still relatively busy. Preferred appt, but they will still see walk in's.

She was very anti vax months ago, but really softened in last month (also with a little help from my badgering here). Maybe not tomorrow, but I'll get her down there in next month.

Agree on your maths, but until I see 70% and 80%, still a long way off.

 

[oznflfan]

My money is on the reduction starting at high 60’s. I reckon we will then slowly get to high 70’s.

And in 2038 after 16 years stagnating between 70-79% we finally touch 80% and Plan C is enacted. We are able to travel internationally with an initial 12 months requirement of 14 days hotel quarantine, just to be safe.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

And in 2038 after 16 years stagnating between 70-79% we finally touch 80% and Plan C is enacted. We are able to travel internationally with an initial 12 months requirement of 14 days hotel quarantine, just to be safe.

please delete this before a politician sees it and gets inspired

 

[Flashback]

Just popped down to the Pfizer Clinic in town to see if I needed my wife to make appt or just pop in. They stated they are still relatively busy. Preferred appt, but they will still see walk in's.

She was very anti vax months ago, but really softened in last month (also with a little help from my badgering here). Maybe not tomorrow, but I'll get her down there in next month.

Agree on your maths, but until I see 70% and 80%, still a long way off.

Yes, it took us a long time to get there..... and that was with a general public that was grappling to get their hands on the jabs. Which currently, Aussies do not seem to be.

 

[hb13]

Back to purpose of thread, who thinks Western Europe trip is on the cards for July next year. cause over last month I'm getting more pessimistic. Right now thinking 40% chance.

No chance in hell. And this is horrible for me too, because I'm desperate to see my family, who I haven't seen for 2 years. The worst thing about this all is that I literally have no idea when I can see my family again. The only thing that is certain is that it's not happening in 2021 and it may be well beyond 2022/23.

We have a broad "plan" of what may occur once 80% vaccination is reached, however, we don't have any specifics. I'm sure a few posters in this thread will jump on me and say the government is working on that and we will know "soon". But once that 80% is reached, does that mean home quarantine? For how long? For people coming from which countries? How long after the 80% (if reached) will rules be implemented?

Secondly, is it 80% of adults or over 12's? Because I haven't seen them clearly state that. And if they have stated it, goal posts are almost certain to be moved to an altogether different pitch.

Finally, the 80% seems to be the magical goal - but will it ever be reached? It is very hard to reach, particularly in Australia with the amount of vaccine hesitancy currently. That math is clear that it can be reached this year, but I wouldn't be sure until we have reached the 60s to see if we get there.