Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[justinbrett]

And zero cases for NSW again

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Sutton:

The 2 new cases are linked to Craigieburn area exposure sites, but not yet directly to other cases.

Jeroen:

Woman presented for testing as she had been in the vicinity of the Craigieburn exposure sites (she shops there daily), and her partner, who works on a construction site, was also then rapid tested and found to be positive.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Vic Presser:

Prof Lewin from The Doherty Institute.

As I mentioned earlier they do all the genomic sequencing in Victoria including all HQ cases.

They can sequence about 80% of cases. The other 20% are not feasible.

They share all data nationally and internationally.

Indicated that latest UK data confirms that Kapp and Delta are both about 50% more infectious (again note that both Kappa and Delta had not been in Victoria before.

My comment: So in Victoria these two outbreaks both have a more infectious strain that has been in Victoria before. Also note that the Vic Presser is to a Vic audience and so comments made are to address the Vic audience.

 

[Flying mermaid]

I REALLY don't understand why diplomats are exempt from HQ - or even getting tested. Makes no sense if we are aiming for covid-zero.

It’s international conventions/treaties - whatever you call it - Australia has no option……

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It's still infinitely more plausible this came from VIC and not NSW/ACT.

What is known:

Well after that update from Prof Lewin we know that about 80% of can be sequenced.

We also know that from the normal incubation period that Case 1 of the West Melbourne Cluster may have been infected in Vic or NSW. Most people typically are at about 5 days prior to symptoms. So about the 20th May, but due the range may have been infected earlier of later.

Based on the typical total incubation range if we look at the % of each people in Vic, NSW and ACT that have been tested in that range then it is about 11 %, 10% and less than 3%. Diplomat testing is voluntary, but more are likely to be in the ACT. Possible marine breaches are also possible.
More foccus testing in the Jervis Bay Region is underway.

There have been no Delta Cases prior to this West Melbourne Outbreak.

Now if he was infected earlier so far no other Delta Cases have been identified despite 11 % of the population being tested. Again the 80% sequence rate comes into play, but that massive testing rate would suggest that it was not circulating in Melbourne for any great length of time.

With HQ breaches they can occur in different ways. The Delta breach in NSW is unknown as in how it happened. Just that traveller had it, and BBQ man got it. The links were never found.


So at present source is completely unknown.

 

[justinbrett]

What is known:

Well after that update from Prof Lewin we know that about 80% of can be sequenced.

We also know that from the normal incubation period that Case 1 of the West Melbourne Cluster may have been infected in Vic or NSW. Most people typically are at about 5 days prior to symptoms. So about the 20th May, but due the range may have been infected earlier of later.

Based on the typical total incubation range if we look at the % of each people in Vic, NSW and ACT that have been tested in that range then it is about 11 %, 10% and less than 3%. Diplomat testing is voluntary, but more are likely to be in the ACT. Possible marine breaches are also possible.
More foccus testing in the Jervis Bay Region is underway.

There have been no Delta Cases prior to this West Melbourne Outbreak.

Now if he was infected earlier so far no other Delta Cases have been identified despite 11 % of the population being tested. Again the 80% sequence rate comes into play.

With HQ breaches they can occur in different ways. The Delta breach in NSW is unknown as in how it happened. Just that traveller had it, and BBQ man got it. The links were never found.


So at present source is completely unknown.

She also said it definitely did not come from "BBQ Man" and she suspects it's a hotel quarantine leak.

The fact that there are still ZERO cases in NSW or ACT (despite significant testing), no results in NSW sewerage testing yet now 9 delta cases in Victoria speaks for itself.

 

[dajop]

Well it seems likely that the virus was caught in Australia, if that entity still exists right? It seems very unlikely that it was caught in that part of Australia commonly referred to as regional Victoria, a possibly that it was caught in regional NSW or part of the ACT called Jervis Bay but most likely caught in Melbourne, but not south eastern Melbourne.

But as we know this virus is all about an interstate urinating contest .

 

[drron]

But as we know this virus is all about an interstate urinating contest .

That is why we have sewerage testing done.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

She also said it definitely did not come from "BBQ Man" and she suspects it's a hotel quarantine leak.

The fact that there are still ZERO cases in NSW or ACT (despite significant testing), no results in NSW sewerage testing yet now 9 delta cases in Victoria speaks for itself.

Yes as I said links unknown including BBQ man as he was genomically sequenced.

There are also ZERO Delta cases in Vic prior to Camping man with 3 times the test rate.

Delta cases post Camping man has nothing to do with who the source was.

By your logic SA was not the source of the Vic outbreak as cases post HQ have been in Vic.

 

[jakeseven7]

Yes as I said links unknown including BBQ man as he was genomically sequenced.

There are also ZERO Delta cases in Vic prior to Camping man with 3 times the test rate.

Delta cases post Camping man has nothing to do with who the source was.

By your logic SA was not the source of the Vic outbreak as cases post HQ have been in Vic.

Yup it’s quite possible there has been another undetected leak from NSW HQ, or for that matter QLD, SA, WA or even VIC.... who knows yet, can’t be ruled out.

 

[dajop]

Yup it’s quite possible there has been another undetected leak from NSW HQ, or for that matter QLD, SA, WA or even VIC.... who knows yet, can’t be ruled out.

Or even NZ.

 

[justinbrett]

Yes as I said links unknown including BBQ man as he was genomically sequenced.

There are also ZERO Delta cases in Vic prior to Camping man with 3 times the test rate.

Delta cases post Camping man has nothing to do with who the source was.

By your logic SA was not the source of the Vic outbreak as cases post HQ have been in Vic.

That's a ridiculous comparison. A Victorian brought the virus from a SA hotel into Victoria. He didn't pick it up by taking a holiday in Adelaide.

The "it came from NSW" theory suggests there was a HQ leak in Sydney that's now bubbling away, spread to Jervis Bay and was transmitted to the Victorian. Yet not a single case has been identified in NSW and no sewerage tests have highlighted an outbreak. Yes, it's theoretically possible, but it's highly unlikely.

It's much more likely this has come from Melbourne HQ as there really only has to be one missing case to link this guy to a HQ worker.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

That's a ridiculous comparison. A Victorian brought the virus from a SA hotel into Victoria. He didn't pick it up by taking a holiday in Adelaide.

The "it came from NSW" theory suggests there was a HQ leak in Sydney that's now bubbling away, spread to Jervis Bay and was transmitted to the Victorian. Yet not a single case has been identified in NSW and no sewerage tests have highlighted an outbreak. Yes, it's theoretically possible, but it's highly unlikely.

It's much more likely this has come from Melbourne HQ as there really only has to be one missing case to link this guy to a HQ worker.

Why would the Vic HQ be the only scenario with one missing link? And why could not the other scenarios have more than one missing link? ie BBQ man probably had at least two missing links, as he had no direct link to any HQ worker or traveller.

My point is source is unknown. So I am not wedded to any one theory.

It may have been a Vic HQ breach.

It may have been a returned traveller with a unusually long incubation period.

It may have been a breach in HQ in any other state and they then travelled back to Vic like Wollert man, who via missing links eventually got to Camperman.

It may have been a HQ breach in NSW which led to Camper man through missing links.

It may have started with a diplomat.

All are possible, plus other scenarios such as like in NZ that a cleaner picked it up. Ora leak via a marine source.

At present it is simply not known.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Since when are positive cases announced as such on the basis of rapid saliva testing only?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Or even NZ.

Yes. Travellers arrived from NZ with no quarantine.

There are many possible paths including from from a Vic HQ breach.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Since when are positive cases announced as such on the basis of rapid saliva testing only?

I assume they will have followed up with a PCR to confirm it as rapid-tests are not as accurate.. The rapid-test would have been used in order to just gain a quick responses.


As a primary contact of the wife, he would have had to do a 14 day quarantine even if he had only negative tests.

He having been confirmed as a positive though means that all of his primary contacts will need to quarantine as well. If he was negative his primary contacts would instead be isolate till a negative result is obtained. Though again the initial action for his primary contacts would have been the same.

 

[dajop]

It may have been a returned traveller with a unusually long incubation period.

Singapore now require travellers from "high risk" countries (which is almost everywhere) to do 3 weeks hotel quarantine, presumably due to the potential of this.

Currently - Australia (except Vic), China (except Guangdong), Brunei & New Zealand ... no quarantine.
Guangdong province, Victoria, Hong Kong Macau - 7 day home quarantine
Fiji, Taiwan - 14 day hotel quarantine + 7 day home quarantine
everywhere else - 21 day hotel quarantine.

 

[justinbrett]

Why would the Vic HQ be the only scenario with one missing link? And why could not the other scenarios have more than one missing link? ie BBQ man probably had at least two missing links, as he had no direct link to any HQ worker or traveller.

My point is source is unknown.

It may have been a Vic HQ breach.

It may have been a returned traveller with a unusually long incubation period.

It may have been a breach in HQ in any other state and they then travelled back to Vic like Wollert man, who via missing links eventually got to Camperman.

It may have been a HW breach in NSW which led to Camper man through missing links.

It may have started with a diplomat.

All are possible, plus other scenarios such as like in NZ that a cleaner picked it up. Ora leak via a marine source.

At present it is simply not known.

No, it's not known.

But it is the most likely scenario - as Melbourne would be a single missing link - other sources would require multiple missing links.

Victoria has a bit of a track record in blaming others.

 

[hydrabyss]

That is why we have sewerage testing done.

May be a good time to start doing sewerage testing with regard to press conferences instead of just relying on old tried and true pub test.

 

[drron]

May be a good time to start doing sewerage testing with regard to press conferences instead of just relying on old tried and true pub test.

As long as they can do bulls*** testing on that sewerage.