Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[oz_mark]

Just one positive but as the partner of a previous positive they have been in isolation for a few days.
They do expect more in the close contacts.

19,000 tests done in SA yesterday. Results for non urgent ones in around 28 hours. Priority ones in a couple of hours.

The next week will tell if it’s gone into the general population. 5,200 in 14 day isolation. Multiple tests on that group.

The Pizza guy is a 36 year old legally here on a student visa that expires in December. So not a young guy at all. He only told the truth when detectives and not tracers spoke to him.

I guess detectives are better at testing the claims people make. Maybe a skill they need to try to bring tracers up to speed with. So a claim gets tested before you shut a state down.

 

[jakeseven7]

True. NSW keeps bubbling along at 1 mystery case (Turning into a handful of local linked cases) every two weeks or so (NSW is due one now).

May be Tasmania regarded the changed amount (from zero to over 10 on one day) to be significant enough to making SA medium risk. Or perhaps Tas haven’t noted (Or regarded) all new cases these past 2-3 days have already been quarantined/isolated as proof the outbreak is under control.

To be fair SA were blasting air raid sirens at defcon 10 to everyone and I’m honestly not surprised the states reacted in a similar way to the way SA reacted themselves..you know?

Now we just have to hope that they can back down from their borders without losing face because they panicked too.... NT seemed not to care having already opened borders back up but we know how this story with QLD and WA goes... sigh....

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I guess detectives are better at testing the claims people make. Maybe a skill they need to try to bring tracers up to speed with. So a claim gets tested before you shut a state down.

Yesterday it was stated that the tracers did not believe Pizza-guy's story from the get go. So one has to wonder why more rigorous cross-checking was not done immediately particularly when they are stating that it was the reason the state was locked down more strictly than anywhere else in Australia to date.

20 detectives now after the fact deployed to try and nail the guy, but not earlier to to get of top of things?

 

[Pushka]

To be fair SA were blasting air raid sirens at defcon 10 to everyone and I’m honestly not surprised the states reacted in a similar way to the way SA reacted themselves..you know?

Now we just have to hope that they can back down from their borders without losing face because they panicked too.... NT seemed not to care having already opened borders back up but we know how this story with QLD and WA goes... sigh....

Absolutely agree that states needed to react in a similar fashion that SA did. Especially Victoria who have battled so hard to beat the virus. It would have been unforgivable if someone from SA spread it there. Given the evidence this virus was even more virulent (fast infection cycle) than before it was essential. However now we know the evidence failed then hopefully it sticks to the known cluster and back to zero. Will take a week. December 1 seems the key date.

Yesterday it was stated that the tracers did not believe Pizza-guy's story from the get go.

I had not heard that. If so then really their lockdown with this persons statement being touted as the straw (that shut the state down) seems strange. But there had been supposed hard evidence this virus was mutated but that evidence seems to have vapourised.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I guess detectives are better at testing the claims people make. Maybe a skill they need to try to bring tracers up to speed with. So a claim gets tested before you shut a state down.

At the end of the day, the lie was plausible and more than possible dangerous. So I’m in the camp that SA Health made the right call on both speed and depth of lockdown. Other States and countries show if you wait too long for the data to show up, it can lead to effectively an uncontrolled outbreak.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

To be fair SA were blasting air raid sirens at defcon 10 to everyone and I’m honestly not surprised the states reacted in a similar way to the way SA reacted themselves..you know?

Now we just have to hope that they can back down from their borders without losing face because they panicked too.... NT seemed not to care having already opened borders back up but we know how this story with QLD and WA goes... sigh....

But didn’t Tas make their move before SA went into lockdown? There was so much happening it’s hard to remember. WA definitely moved first - the rest were a blur

 

[RooFlyer]

Yesterday it was stated that the tracers did not believe Pizza-guy's story from the get go. So one has to wonder why more rigorous cross-checking was not done immediately particularly when they are stating that it was the reason the state was locked down more strictly than anywhere else in Australia to date.

20 detectives now after the fact deployed to try and nail the guy, but not earlier to to get of top of things?

It might of been stated that the contact traces didn’t believe the story but we don’t know whether that is true or not. But in any case they would be obliged to follow up information in front of them rather than pick and choose what they believe on an ad hoc basis.

Again there appeared to be a belief that this was a very virulent strain, so I am cutting SA some slack in acting in a very urgent way, even though in hindsight (glorious hindsight!) it was an overreaction.

After a few outbreaks around the states, hopefully we and they will get a handle on what reaction is appropriate to various circumstances. Until then I’m afraid it’s going to be all a bit ad hoc. The exception of course is New South Wales, who seems to be the only adult in the room and reacts in a calm and controlled way as the virus goes along like everyone said it would.

I’m not quite sure what 20 detectives would be doing to get on top of things before Other than investigating a possible breaking of the law.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I had not heard that. If so then really their lockdown with this persons statement being touted as the straw (that shut the state down) seems strange. But there had been supposed hard evidence this virus was mutated but that evidence seems to have vapourised.

Lovetravellingoz noted it on this thread already that contact tracer did not believe it.

It’s good that the contact tracer should just note the information, not put their bias/judgment on things. Imagine if the lie was true and contact tracers didn’t bother noting it because it was in their view unlikely. The catastrophe that would result .....

 

[RooFlyer]

But didn’t Tas make their move before SA went into lockdown? There was so much happening it’s hard to remember. WA definitely moved first - the rest were a blur

I think Tas gave a warning of possible quarantine of SA visitors the morning that the magnitude of the SA outbreak became readily apparent (there was a direct flight from Adelaide to Hobart due in the afternoon) and they confirmed it in the same afternoon, after the SA lockdown was announced. They were definitely observing SA and reacting to it in real time so to speak.

 

[RAM]

Lovetravellingoz noted it on this thread already that contact tracer did not believe it.

It’s good that the contact tracer should just note the information, not put their bias/judgment on things. Imagine if the lie was true and contact tracers didn’t bother noting it because it was in their view unlikely. The catastrophe that would result .....

As an analogy, a 'young sounding' person rings 000 and says they saw someone all dressed in black & carrying some guns walking towards the local high school.

Act first & ask questions later?

_______________________________​

I do wonder if there is a standard set of questions for the contact tracers to ask (in any state) just like all our favourite call-centres?

In this (SA) and any other case:

For individuals - have you worked, either paid, unpaid, or as a volunteer anywhere in the last two weeks?
For employers - please list all empoyees, full time/part time/casual who have worked in the last two weeks - the times worked & their contact details.

 

[Pushka]

Lovetravellingoz noted it on this thread already that contact tracer did not believe it.

It’s good that the contact tracer should just note the information, not put their bias/judgment on things. Imagine if the lie was true and contact tracers didn’t bother noting it because it was in their view unlikely. The catastrophe that would result .....

Thanks. I missed that comment. It’s been a crazy few hours.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So now I am curious @drron. Yesterday you sent the link that you'd received stating that SA had a particularly nasty version of the virus and needed fast action as it was a super infectious one and we were in the fourth or fifth generation after just a few days. The liar incident seems to have precipitated that thought. I believe (could be wrong here) Prof Spurrier stated that genomic testing had confirmed similar. Now, yesterday, Prof Spurrier confirmed that we were still thankfully, just at the second generation. And contacts and second contacts all isolated. (As are we still in lockdown until midnight tonight) So, where exactly does this leave us here? Was that information correct or well

I still don't understand the claims by SA Authorities that they thought that the rate of infection was extremely quick or super-contagious. Nothing factual has yet been revealed to support such a view. Spurrier backpedalled today by saying 3 days in the family involved.

We do know however that just 20 odd cases has overwhelmed the SA Contact Tracing System. Given that having two rings of tracing outside the infected is now the norm, that SA was not set up to handle what is still a relatively small cluster is notable.

Again speed to act is important and is excellent. It is more that why even if Pizza guy had been telling the truth were such draconian measures deemed necessary.

If you look at all the clusters in Vic's Second Wave you can seem numerous example of clusters that grew more rapidly than this cluster in SA has.

In addition large family households and rapid spread within them was very much a common feature of the Vic Second Wave and one of the reasons that the second wave gained momentum. This was why later in the second wave that great effort was applied to swiftly contain new and family clusters. ie The Casey Household, and right at the end the EPIC families.

Even with the Pizza guy, Spurrier indicated that she acted on him picking up a pizza in store and being there 19 minutes. The Butcher Club Cluster had at least 4 customers who bought meat with both the and the butcher wearing masks. So transmission of CV19 with brief transmission times while not common has happened here in Australia.

Post automatically merged: Nov 21, 2020

Thanks. I missed that comment. It’s been a crazy few hours.

They stated that yesterday.

 

[Pushka]

I still don't understand the claims by SA Authorities that they thought that the rate of infection was extremely quick or super-contagious. Nothing factual has yet been revealed to support such a view. Spurrier backpedalled today by saying 3 days in the family involved.

I think because if the lie was true it had spread from a first to a second, then third contact then fourth contact (liar) within the space of a few days. (I may have inserted an extra generation here - it’s all irrelevant now anyway) Plus via cardboard after minimal contact. (Again irrelevant now). They knew that the original 80 year old where it was discovered was in the very early stages of infection. And that was less than a week ago.

Post automatically merged: Nov 21, 2020

I still don't understand the claims by SA Authorities that they thought that the rate of infection was extremely quick or super-contagious. Nothing factual has yet been revealed to support such a view. Spurrier backpedalled today by saying 3 days in the family involved.

We do know however that just 20 odd cases has overwhelmed the SA Contact Tracing System. Given that having two rings of tracing outside the infected is now the norm, that SA was not set up to handle what is still a relatively small cluster is notable.

Again speed to act is important and is excellent. It is more that why even if Pizza guy had been telling the truth were such draconian measures deemed necessary.

If you look at all the clusters in Vic's Second Wave you can seem numerous example of clusters that grew more rapidly than this cluster in SA has.

In addition large family households and rapid spread within them was very much a common feature of the Vic Second Wave and one of the reasons that the second wave gained momentum. This was why later in the second wave that great effort was applied to swiftly contain new and family clusters. ie The Casey Household, and right at the end the EPIC families.

Even with the Pizza guy, Spurrier indicated that she acted on him picking up a pizza in store and being there 19 minutes. The Butcher Club Cluster had at least 4 customers who bought meat with both the and the butcher wearing masks. So transmission of CV19 with brief transmission times while not common has happened here in Australia.


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Post automatically merged: Nov 21, 2020

They stated that yesterday.

Yep. Missed it as I said.

 

[RooFlyer]

I still don't understand the claims by SA Authorities that they thought that the rate of infection was extremely quick or super-contagious. Nothing factual has yet been revealed to support such a view.

I think it came about because of the person in question stated that the only contact he had with the pizza joint was via the box with the pizza that he
said he had collected. I think also the infected pizza worker had only had the virus for a short time. Therefore the conclusion was that it was transmitted very quickly and it was contracted very easily through the pizza box. This is at the same time as the news of the very virulent mutated strain in Denmark was coming out.

So now we know that it was not a rapid transmission or one off a a pizza box but a normal person to person transmission within the workplace. So no new very virulent strain in Adelaide.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Thanks. I missed that comment. It’s been a crazy few hours.

It’s now a week......now it’s seven days and 31 pages

 

[RooFlyer]

There’s a report in the Australian online just now that premier Marshall is saying that the hard lockdown in South Australia was not only due to the lie the pizza guy made. This will be interesting.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

There’s a report in the Australian online just now that premier Marshall is saying that the hard lockdown in South Australia was not only due to the lie the pizza guy made. This will be interesting.

Technically the strain was the relevant strain that could be the mutated superspreader???

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think because if the lie was true it had spread from a first to a second, then third contact then fourth contact (liar) within the space of a few days. (I may have inserted an extra generation here - it’s all irrelevant now anyway) Plus via cardboard after minimal contact. (Again irrelevant now). They knew that the original 80 year old where it was discovered was in the very early stages of infection. And that was less than a week ago.

Spurrier said she acted on the 10 minute visit to store.

Rapid spread within large households is common.

If the virus was a super contagious strain where were the other cases?

What about all the other passengers on the plane?

There had been a large time gap since the hotel worker was infected. There was not a vast number of cases outside of the family, or amongst hotel workers.

So evidence of being super contagious seems to be weak at best.


PS: Again speed to act is great and what you want. I am only questioning the degree of measures that were gone to even allowing for contact tracing becoming overwhelmed. Better to be too cautious than not cautious enough. But it appears to have been way to0 cautious which was the common sentiment when the measures were first announced, and even if Pizza guy has been telling the truth would still be the case in my view.

 

[RooFlyer]

Spurrier said she acted on the 10 minute visit to store.

Rapid spread within large households is common.

If the virus was a super contagious strain where were the other cases?

What about all the other passengers on the plane?

There had been a large time gap since the hotel worker was infected. There was not a vast number of cases outside of the family, or amongst hotel workers.

So evidence of being super contagious seems to be weak at best.


PS: Again speed to act is great and what you want. I am only questioning the degree of measures that were gone to even allowing for contact tracing becoming overwhelmed. Better to be too cautious than not cautious enough. But it appears to have been way to0 cautious which was the common sentiment when the measures were first announced, and even if Pizza guy has been telling the truth would still be the case in my view.

Do you really think its reasonable for all those questions to be answered before the authorities react? I think the conclusion here is we should be thankful its not our responsibilty to make these decisions.
_ _ _ _

So evidence of being super contagious seems to be weak at best.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
_ _ _ _

Some quotes from Prof Spurrier via the Oz on-line: (my bolding)

Government officials are holding a press conference to further explain the debacle, after Premier Steven Marshall yesterday blamed the man — identified as a 36-year-old Spanish national on a visa — for triggering the six-day lockdown.

“To be clear, the decision to lock down hard, and I know it has been very difficult for people in South Australia, and perhaps difficult to understand, was not based on the interview with one man,” the state’s chief public health officer Professor Nicola Spurrier said.

“We would never make those decisions in isolation of just one piece of information, it is very complex. I have a set of principles and the first one of those is the precautionary principle, and that is about acting swiftly without necessarily having all the information, because if you wait too long, you have missed an opportunity, and again, I was acting using that precautionary principle.”
_ _ _ _

The state’s police commissioner Grant Stevens said, had this man been “more upfront, we would not have instituted a six-day lockdown”.

“We are satisfied that we made the right call at the time based on the information available,” Commissioner Stevens said.

“Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but we don’t have the benefit of hindsight at the time we had these decisions, and it is not a black-and-white situation to begin with, these are difficult decisions that have to be made in the best interest of the wider community.”

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think it came about because of the person in question stated that the only contact he had with the pizza joint was via the box with the pizza that he
said he had collected. I think also the infected pizza worker had only had the virus for a short time. Therefore the conclusion was that it was transmitted very quickly and it was contracted very easily through the pizza box. This is at the same time as the news of the very virulent mutated strain in Denmark was coming out.

So now we know that it was not a rapid transmission or one off a a pizza box but a normal person to person transmission within the workplace. So no new very virulent strain in Adelaide.

Spurrier stated today that she acted on Pizza guy being in store for 10 minutes and that this would have included people interaction. If Spurrier was accurate in what she said today it was never just about fomite transmission on a box.

Also for a virus strain that contagious that a hot pizza box would transmit it, where were all the other cases? Where were the cases on the flight in from the pax who flew in etc?

Also the virus does not survive in heat. Temperatures over 35 kill it. So if it could be so contagious on a hot box, what about on cool airline surfaces etc?