Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[dajop]

A lot of commenters in the blog have been pointing out that Victoria's lockdown roadmap is stricter than other jurisdictions — and if NSW was subject to Victoria's restrictions, it would be locked down right now.

Myself and some others I've been talking to seem to all agree Victoria's road map is ultra-conservative and open to relaxing depending on the nature of the transmissions. If it hangs around in the disadvantaged, poor, vulnearable (pick your adjective) and/or recent immigrant communities it's difficult to see the timelines changing much at all. If the unknown sources can be eliminated then it might move faster, but before the announcement, everyone wanted certainty so they could plan. Well this is certainty, with the rider that if it reduces faster than expeceted - it's a bonus. The trouble is it's just not the sort of certainty people wanted.

 

[RooFlyer]

How many did you claim? (or did you sleep in this morning )

One. I logged on at 9:25am after a physio appt. I'm very proud - my very first government $ handout !

 

[RooFlyer]

If the unknown sources can be eliminated then it might move faster, but before the announcement, everyone wanted certainty so they could plan. Well this is certainty, with the rider that if it reduces faster than expeceted -- it's a bonus.

Vic CMO has said Stage 2 is a 'hard date' (ie not flexible).

Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said the state could transition to the Third Step earlier than scheduled but the date of the Second Step was locked in regardless of whether case numbers fell faster than anticipated.

Also, more non consultation:

Professor Sutton said the Victorian government did not discuss the state’s coronavirus roadmap with the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee, the peak national public health emergency body, before unveiling the roadmap on Sunday.

Victoria’s CHO said the state government instead held “in principle discussions” with the AHPCC on lowering the effective reproduction rate and driving down transmission rates.

“Not this specific roadmap for Victoria,” he said. “Because no-one’s got a view of the Victorian industry and population and epidemiology to the extent that we do ourselves.”

Gee, I dunno. Do these guys have all the answers, I wonder?

 

[p--and--t]

Myself and some others I've been talking to seem to all agree Victoria's road map is ultra-conservative and open to relaxing depending on the nature of the transmissions. If it hangs around in the disadvantaged, poor, vulnearable (pick your adjective) and/or recent immigrant communities it's difficult to see the timelines changing much at all. If the unknown sources can be eliminated then it might move faster, but before the announcement, everyone wanted certainty so they could plan. Well this is certainty, with the rider that if it reduces faster than expeceted - it's a bonus. The trouble is it's just not the sort of certainty people wanted.

The federal treasurer lambasted the Vic Premier for not having an exit roadmap (when no-one else has a roadmap except WA[stay closed regardless of anything]).

Now he has produced a roadmap that no other state has produced to establish a covid-normal environment with trigger points, they will continue to criticise it as being the wrong plan - that's politics

 

[RooFlyer]

Now he has produced a roadmap that no other state has produced to establish a covid-normal environment with trigger points, they will continue to criticise it as being the wrong plan - that's politics

I know its a very small place in the scheme of things, but Tas certainly had a 'road map' out when our NW outbreak occurred. The Tas business& tourism reps swallowed it with not much resistance (although they are getting a bit ansy now, that we are stuck with a long 'tail'). A lot of the criticism I'm seeing re the Vic plan is from businesses and industry reps. The Wesfarmers guy, who I quoted above, is in a pretty good place to comment, as they have exposure in every state and territory and he contrasted their experience with the Vic government pretty unfavorably.

 

[twiningb]

Well this is certainty, with the rider that if it reduces faster than expeceted - it's a bonus. The trouble is it's just not the sort of certainty people wanted.

But it's really not certainty. It's a bunch of "at least until..." qualified with absurd targets. There will not be a fourteen-day window with zero infections in the foreseeable future.

 

[p--and--t]

But it's really not certainty. It's a bunch of "at least until..." qualified with absurd targets. There will not be a fourteen-day window with zero infections in the foreseeable future.

*except that has been achieved in multiple jurisdictions

 

[twiningb]

The federal treasurer lambasted the Vic Premier for not having an exit roadmap (when no-one else has a roadmap except WA[stay closed regardless of anything]).

Now he has produced a roadmap that no other state has produced to establish a covid-normal environment with trigger points, they will continue to criticise it as being the wrong plan - that's politics

It is the wrong plan.

 

[p--and--t]

It is the wrong plan.

You are entitled to your opinion as is everyone else.

I note that the plan was produced using the resources of Monash Uni, The Uni of New England and the Peter Doherty Institute. They have significantly more experience and knowledge in the area than I so will not make a unilateral judgement that I know better than them.

 

[Flying mermaid]

I'm in close to the same boat with my SA clients. All my work for 2020 was cancelled, initially out of caution in Feb/Mar, then out of necessity with lockdown in Mar/June, and then out of political shenanigans from July/now. Although there is a glimmer of hope for the end of the year if SA and ACT get a travel bubble going. QLD and VIC clients have follwed pretty much the same pattern of cancellation and then long long hiatus.

However, I find I am starting to enjoy the semi-retired lifestyle (which will be even better when I can travel again) and I might not find the energy to crank up again, given all the uncertainties and risks small businesses absorb. This could be seen as a plus - another boomer leaving the workforce creating an opportunity for the younger generations. However, if I do fully retire, I will become one less taxpayer in the system, and I have been a big taxpayer for many years. I will also be one less employer in the system, and although I have only been a small employer, it will still mean a few less people with jobs. Not sure how I feel about it all. Not how I thought I would be finishing up my working career either.

I am very glad I decided to close our business and retire in 2014. Best decision ever. And that we did so much travelling! Although there have been some income challenges over the past 6 months, not like trying to keep a business going.

 

[p--and--t]

Myself and some others I've been talking to seem to all agree Victoria's road map is ultra-conservative and open to relaxing depending on the nature of the transmissions. If it hangs around in the disadvantaged, poor, vulnearable (pick your adjective) and/or recent immigrant communities it's difficult to see the timelines changing much at all. If the unknown sources can be eliminated then it might move faster, but before the announcement, everyone wanted certainty so they could plan. Well this is certainty, with the rider that if it reduces faster than expeceted - it's a bonus. The trouble is it's just not the sort of certainty people wanted.

Wasn't it an absolute certainty that people were demanding a plan to gain some certainty, but when they said that they left out the bit that it had to be a plan that suited their own circumstance, their timelines and matched their views on the ways the exit should be handled.

[AKA: any plan had zero chance of pleasing everyone.]

 

[jakeseven7]

*except that has been achieved in multiple jurisdictions

Which jurisdictions that had a comparable amount of active cases?

 

[p--and--t]

Which jurisdictions that had a comparable amount of active cases?

None had the initial quantum, but several achieved the goal (to which I imprecisely was alluding to)

i.e. I was referring to the end point, not the starting point

 

[Pushka]

You are entitled to your opinion as is everyone else.

I note that the plan was produced using the resources of Monash Uni, The Uni of New England and the Peter Doherty Institute. They have significantly more experience and knowledge in the area than I so will not make a unilateral judgement that I know better than them.

And as many experts in similar institutions will provide rationale for their disagreement with the plan.
"Chair in epidemiology at Deakin University, Catherine Bennett, has been vocal about her disappointment with Victoria's roadmap out of lockdown today.

Speaking to the ABC on Monday, Professor Bennett added her voice to the growing number of people expressing concern about the thresholds set to move to different stages of the roadmap."

“I think they need to look at those numbers a bit, too, because there's something not quite right,” she said.

 

[p--and--t]

And as many experts in similar institutions will provide rationale for their disagreement with the plan.
"Chair in epidemiology at Deakin University, Catherine Bennett, has been vocal about her disappointment with Victoria's roadmap out of lockdown today.

Speaking to the ABC on Monday, Professor Bennett added her voice to the growing number of people expressing concern about the thresholds set to move to different stages of the roadmap."

“I think they need to look at those numbers a bit, too, because there's something not quite right,” she said.

Yep just have to sit in front of News24 for a couple hours every day and you will get wildly divergent views from several experts in the same field within a matter of 10 minutes or so; some of them at 180deg to each other. All of them trying to find at least one alternative marker to differentiate themselves from all the other talking heads. Human nature jostling at its finest

[Oh and maybe, just maybe, Deakin are p...... they weren't selected to provide input what an insult ]

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Many complaining and none putting forward something feasible to achieve the removal of hotspot designation and say get to 1 community transmission (unknown source) per day, which was about Sydney’s max average number, and less than 300 active cases (again NSW maximum number this wave), and a range of other indicators

Edit: noting Stage 3 restrictions didn’t really reduce numbers quickly enough, etc

 

[Pushka]

Yep just have to sit in front of News24 for a couple hours every day and you will get wildly divergent views from several experts in the same field within a matter of 10 minutes or so; some of them at 180deg to each other. All of them trying to find at least one alternative marker to differentiate themselves from all the other talking heads. Human nature jostling at its finest

[Oh and maybe, just maybe, Deakin are p...... they weren't selected to provide input what an insult ]

Neither was RMIT nor Uni Melbourne. Two rather pre-eminent Universities right there. Edited for spelling.

 

[p--and--t]

Neither was RMIT nor Uni Melbourne. Two rather preemininent Universities right there.

Pre-eminent?

Not so much RMIT, (buy your degree?) but that's a subject for a different thread.

 

[RAM]

Please find ten tonnes of explosive material detailed below.....

What should the plan have been IYHO & what time frames plus trigger levels?

On the flip side:

Suggest some laugh-inducing (not serious) reasons why there is no National Aged Care Covid-19 plan?

 

[RooFlyer]

Is there a dark conspiracy involved ?