Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[antycbr]

I do wonder, niggling in the back of my mind, if we’re seeing an effect of the onset of winter now in Melbourne, where people are much more likely, when they choose to congregate, to do so indoors.

Some anecdotal evidence - my partners mother lives quite close to Melbournes 3rd largest shopping centre, which we drove past on Saturday afternoon and not only was the traffic horrendous but the car park seemed full and people were parking across the road in overflow areas - normally only see this at Xmas. Surely this can’t continue? They could go onto odds and evens in the car park on weekends or something like that to keep the numbers down.

Seems like no one can get into the car parks now as every shopping centre is surrounded by queued cars for the COVID test facility...

I agree with you that we may end up having to cap numbers in the centers soon.

 

[jakeseven7]

I think the Vic Government has been complacent in assuming everyone would toe the line and that it was just going to happen in having the cases flatline or disappear and while this was ok for the majority who were doing the right thing, it has been disastrous with the minority who have not been as motivated

All state governments should pull up their socks then moving forward.

Post automatically merged: Jun 24, 2020

I do wonder, niggling in the back of my mind, if we’re seeing an effect of the onset of winter now in Melbourne, where people are much more likely, when they choose to congregate, to do so indoors.

Some anecdotal evidence - my partners mother lives quite close to Melbournes 3rd largest shopping centre, which we drove past on Saturday afternoon and not only was the traffic horrendous but the car park seemed full and people were parking across the road in overflow areas - normally only see this at Xmas. Surely this can’t continue? They could go onto odds and evens in the car park on weekends or something like that to keep the numbers down.

It’s probably people queuing to get Covid tested after the media hyperventilating over the last week

 

[drron]

I do wonder, niggling in the back of my mind, if we’re seeing an effect of the onset of winter now in Melbourne, where people are much more likely, when they choose to congregate, to do so indoors.

Some anecdotal evidence - my partners mother lives quite close to Melbournes 3rd largest shopping centre, which we drove past on Saturday afternoon and not only was the traffic horrendous but the car park seemed full and people were parking across the road in overflow areas - normally only see this at Xmas. Surely this can’t continue? They could go onto odds and evens in the car park on weekends or something like that to keep the numbers down.

Certainly a possibility.An interesting article on Super spreader events and when and where they are likely to happen.

• Nearly all SSEs in the database — at least 97% — took place indoors
• The great majority of SSEs happened during flu season in that location
• The vast majority took place in settings where people were essentially confined together, indoors, for a prolonged period (for example, nursing homes, prisons, cruise ships, worker housing)
• Processing plants where temperatures are kept low and the air is dry (meat processing plants are a key example) seem particularly vulnerable to SSEs

Covid-19 Superspreading Events Database

1,500+ Superspreading Events from Around the World

medium.com

Another possibility.When in Tasmania I heard one of Prof.Collignon's ideas. He said that if the lockdown was more severe and complex the number of people breaking the rules would rise.I tried a google search to find this but gave up after going through 7 pages.Twitter was worse as he has ~ 14,400 tweets.But I did come across an article written last year on which public health regulations on restaurants in the US got broken more frequently-it was the most severe and most complicated.

Why Some Rules Are More Likely to Be Broken

Which rules are most likely to be broken? Research based on 1,011 hygiene inspections of 289 restaurants in California suggest that how rules are designed can create significant challenges for otherwise well-intentioned organizations. Researchers found that not only were more complex rules more...

hbr.org

Most people agree that Victoria had the more severe lockdown regulations compared to other states.

 

[jakeseven7]

Rumour is QLD will have more cases today of community transmission.... lets wait and see....

 

[Pushka]

Most people agree that Victoria had the more severe lockdown regulations compared to other states.

I was just about to post that it seemed perverse that Victoria had the toughest rules yet the (current) bleakest future. But it also seems like Vic Health just didn't cover all the potential risk areas in obvious situations, such as the hygiene rules of the security people but there are obviously other issues.

 

[moa999]

Most people agree that Victoria had the more severe lockdown regulations compared to other states.

Don't think the rules were any stricter than NSW. Police enforcement maybe

 

[moa999]

Rumour is QLD will have more cases today of community transmission.... lets wait and see....

That would be the first in over 4 wks?

Vic with another 20, only 1 overseas traveller
• 1 returned traveller
• 7 linked to outbreaks
• 9 routine testing
• 3 under investigation

https://twitter.com/intent/like?tweet_id=1275572879141134336

 

[jakeseven7]

That would be the first in over 4 wks?

It definitely wasn't a returned traveler, will be interesting to see how they code it

 

[drron]

Don't think the rules were any stricter than NSW. Police enforcement maybe

Victoria still leads in the numbers fined.but also was the messages such as no camping,no fishing etc.Made it more complicated than the other States.
By the way I am not saying this is the reason for the current cases but it is an interesting subject.

 

[dajop]

Victoria still leads in the numbers fined.but also was the messages such as no camping,no fishing etc.Made it more complicated than the other States.
By the way I am not saying this is the reason for the current cases but it is an interesting subject.

Yes, but in Victoria from what I understand there's an elephant in the room that almost no-one is mentioning, but gossip is circulating. And it's not the protest.

 

[dajop]

Seems like no one can get into the car parks now as every shopping centre is surrounded by queued cars for the COVID test facility...

It’s probably people queuing to get Covid tested after the media hyperventilating over the last week

No that was Monday when we went past. Car parks nowhere near full. Traffic congestion in inexplicable direction (completely different congestion to Saturday). People on heightened alert to testing.

Saturday, the nature of the congestion was very typical of Xmas time congestion, the car parks seemed all full and overflowing to people parking across the road. All pointed to shopping, When we went past on Monday we noticed odd congestion thinking "that's strange, the car park is nowhere near full" and "it's normally not congested there", which made sense when we heard the news about queues for testing.

 

[moa999]

Rumour is QLD will have more cases today of community transmission.... lets wait and see....

Nope. Zero cases

What elephant are you referring to @dajop and how does whatever it is not impact other states

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1275560619198963712

 

[dajop]

What elephant are you referring to @dajop and how does whatever it is not impact other states

The rumours I heard related to certain ethnic groups that are more prevalent in Melbourne in general, and in the hotspot areas in particular. Has been obliquely referenced on SBS that better communication about the restrictions, in a range of languages in needed.

 

[jakeseven7]

The rumours I heard related to certain ethnic groups that are more prevalent in Melbourne in general, and in the hotspot areas in particular. Has been obliquely referenced on SBS that better communication in a range of languages in needed.

Its not a translation thing.... Blind Freddy can cross reference significant dates, their associations and practices on those dates and see what happened.

I think it’s good they are being careful about it though in the media the last thing we need is the Hanson brigade sounding off to add to the mess.

 

[dajop]

Oh the other thing that I've heard and look at this quote from "The Age" ..

Some returned travellers who had tested positive were mistakenly let out of their rooms to get fresh air and at least one shared an elevator with a guard, he said.

Which roughly translates as "Guards were letting quarantined travellers outside the stair wells for a smoke" (and some allegations that the guards were also having a puff at the same time). Completely believable.

I notice though, poor training is being blamed. Usually when the holes in the swiss cheese line up, training is the first thing the blame, but that can mask both behavioural and attitudinal issues,

 

[get me outta here]

Apparently now today there is a four hour wait in the car for testing in Victoria. The amount of people being tested in Canberra is also raised. So I suppose this is heightened awareness in other places as well.

 

[RooFlyer]

Holy smokes. A scathing critique of Victoria's COVID response management by Peter Van Onselen. It will be paywalled, but worth Googling the headline to see if you can bring it up. Worth a read in full: Why Victoria has failed to tame COVID unlike other states

One excerpt, but Onselen ranges more widely than this

Like the rest of the country, Victoria was able to control the virus the first time around with swift statewide action to lock down the economy and society. But reopening the state has exposed the organisational deficiencies in Victoria’s health services.

No public health units in local health districts, as happens in other states, is a significant shortfall. The Victorian model centralises power, which reduces the skills and abilities of local health districts to manage outbreaks when they occur. They are the frontline in controlling this.

And Victoria’s Chief Health Officer, Brett Sutton, sits three levels below the Premier and Health Minister, reducing his line-management rights and responsibilities and hampering his ability to make decisions swiftly in what needs to be a fast-paced response setting.

Sutton isn’t even a deputy secretary within Victoria’s health bureaucracy, as the chief health officers are in similarly large states such as NSW and Queensland. In fact, all other states classify their CHOs as a deputy secretary or equivalent for reporting purposes. In Victoria, the CHO is merely one of seven direct reports to one of the five deputy secretaries who report to the secretary of the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services. Which means he is a long way down the totem pole.

and

The shortcomings in Victoria — which are long-entrenched public policy failures — won’t even be admitted to by its government. Partly, perhaps, because Andrews himself is a former health minister, meaning that the health structure he has overseen as a minister and Premier is one he feels politically compelled to defend.

Andrews gloats about the “army” of contact tracers in his home state, which is a statement of fact. But he glosses over the lack of skilled personnel overseeing them. The biggest army doesn’t always win without good generalship.

 

[Pushka]

“Andrews gloats about the “army” of contact tracers in his home state, which is a statement of fact. But he glosses over the lack of skilled personnel overseeing them. The biggest army doesn’t always win without good generalship.”

Well they have a very good one in control now from SA.

 

[drron]

I liked the cartoon.
.

Though I thought this was a very significant part of that Australian report.


"Sutton isn’t even a deputy secretary within Victoria’s health bureaucracy, as the chief health officers are in similarly large states such as NSW and Queensland. In fact, all other states classify their CHOs as a deputy secretary or equivalent for reporting purposes. In Victoria, the CHO is merely one of seven direct reports to one of the five deputy secretaries who report to the secretary of the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services. Which means he is a long way down the totem pole.

Sutton therefore doesn’t have the communications team around him that other CHOs (and the federal Chief Medical Officer) have. That’s not a case of Sutton lacking a team of spin merchants, as are often embedded in political offices. I’m talking about health communications teams with the skills to engage with culturally and linguistically diverse communities, or CALD groupings."

As to the rumours of ethnic big families it really is very easy to work out just what has been going on and what culture is involved by looking at the make up of the populations in the hot spots.And the Australian's cartoon of this issue was well chosen in that respect.

 

[get me outta here]

Standby for the panic buying starting up again, 1st to go will be TP.