A380 future post-COVID-19

[Melburnian1]

Following Admin's guidelines, this is a small extract from 'The Times' article by one Charles Bremner that is an extensive discussion as to A380s' future use.

It's syndicated to 'The Australian' so I can see it on latter's site.

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The Airbus A380, with four engines and seats for 500 passengers, was hailed as the “queen of the skies” on its maiden flight 15 years ago.
The world’s biggest passenger aircraft is facing an uncertain future, however, as questions swirl about the future of flight in a changed world.

Qantas has insisted that its flying giants would return to long-haul routes after the pandemic.

But British Airways has sent several of its gas-guzzling giants to an airport in central France for storage, and other European airlines have permanently retired their jet

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It's a bit hackneyed, as it's been discussed before, but article says that Boeing 747s are likely to outlast Airbus A380s in service. Does this refer only to Boeing freight aircraft, not passenger aircraft?

Apparently Emirates is trying to delay its final order for eight.

Most of the worldwide 240 A380s are out of service at present (not a surprise).

It also suggests that B bet on 'fragmentation' while A bet on 'consolidation' and 'Boeing won.'

 

[milehighclub]

It also suggests that B bet on 'fragmentation' while A bet on 'consolidation' and 'Boeing won.'

There are no winners in any of this.

The A380's have been my biggest concern because they require so many passengers. We can't even fill a Dash 8 at the moment. It will take a long time for that kind of demand to pick up for Qantas especially if the borders remain closed or heavily restricted which a lot articles indicate will be the case. I would not be surprised that once the other 3 aircraft are finished being refurbished, that remains the extent of the A380 fleet (6).

 

[Melburnian1]

There are no winners in any of this.

The A380's have been my biggest concern because they require so many passengers. We can't even fill a Dash 8 at the moment. It will take a long time for that kind of demand to pick up for Qantas especially if the borders remain closed or heavily restricted which a lot articles indicate will be the case. I would not be surprised that once the other 3 aircraft are finished being refurbished, that remains the extent of the A380 fleet (6).

milehighclub, there's more 'stuff' (apologies for slang) in media this morning backing up your concerns. It's far from optimistic, despite Easter Sunday being a beacon of light and hope for many of us.

The Prime Minister is obligated to give sombre assessments, because if he doesn't, you, I and everyone else will put our own and community health at risk according to epidemiologists, but as soon as the PM can, he'll want to deliver a more upbeat message that will presumably include the opening of businesses including aviation.

However, the State Premiers are more downcast, and none of us can control what occurs overseas. The State border closures make them look 'strong', so one would hope that (as in Queensland) they just don't continue with these for opinion poll-related/election strategy reasons.

Medical specialists are not experts in public policy over multiple areas, so will their 'dominance' in decision making continue until a vaccine is available? if one is, which presumably takes at least 18 months? And if one isn't able to be developed, what then?

The longer this continues, the worse the scenario for A380s.

A minority of commentators however suggest that demand will 'flood' back once restrictions are lifted in a nation. I'm not convinced, because so many other nations have greater problems with this virus that we seem to at present.

 

[jb747]

Even if Australia were to successfully eradicate every case of the virus within the country, it would only mean that internal travel would be safe. And as the population would have no immunity, you couldn't take the chance of allowing anyone from overseas, be they passenger or crew, to restart the whole thing. So, things might slowly return to normal within a country, but it would need pretty much the entire world to have beaten the virus (or to be immunised) before any level of unrestricted international flying could restart.

So, whilst people might like to travel, I suspect the reality will be that they won't be able to. When, eventually, things start again, the A380 will have rusted away to nothing. When it's all over, my guess is that the 787s may still be flying, but nothing bigger.

 

[get me outta here]

There is no guarantee that immunity is a given. We don’t even know that as yet.

Even if Australia were to successfully eradicate every case of the virus within the country, it would only mean that internal travel would be safe. And as the population would have no immunity, you couldn't take the chance of allowing anyone from overseas, be they passenger or crew, to restart the whole thing. So, things might slowly return to normal within a country, but it would need pretty much the entire world to have beaten the virus (or to be immunised) before any level of unrestricted international flying could restart.

So, whilst people might like to travel, I suspect the reality will be that they won't be able to. When, eventually, things start again, the A380 will have rusted away to nothing. When it's all over, my guess is that the 787s may still be flying, but nothing bigger.

 

[Melburnian1]

There is no guarantee that immunity is a given. We don’t even know that as yet.

get me, by that - apologies if I am being obtuse - do you mean there's no guarantee a vaccine will be successfully developed?

 

[p--and--t]

There was a media report earlier today that the tourism minister had said that international travel won't be resuming before xmas & to plan to spend your next holidays somewhere in Australia, the location depending on decisions made by individual state premiers.

I didn't hear where and when and the exact detail of the report to check its validity & accuracy.

 

[Melburnian1]

There was a media report earlier today that the tourism minister had said that international travel won't be resuming before xmas & to plan to spend your next holidays somewhere in Australia, the location depending on decisions made by individual state premiers.

I didn't hear where and when and the exact detail of the report to check its validity & accuracy.

He (Birmingham) was quoted in 'The Australian' and from memory was extremely pessimistic (for those of us who enjoy going overseas. I don't recall the exact estimate of "when" we might expect to go o/s but you're correct, it certainly wasn't this year.

To use that unattractive expression 'this just about does my head in' as we have medical specialists telling us one thing, the Prime Minister and the state Premiers being reasonably consistent (bearing in mind we're a Federation) but then Senator Birmingham comes along and is far more pessimistic than the PM. Many of us on AFF can cope with concurrent information from a couple of sources but this virus must be setting some sort of record in the speed with which indications from those in authority alter: one day optimism, the next day pessimism.

 

[bosox76]

get me, by that - apologies if I am being obstuse - do you mean there's no guarantee a vaccine will be successfully developed?

A vaccine will likely be developed but how effective it’ll be is a million dollar question. And let’s not even open the can of worms about safety.

What I think get me outta here was saying though is that we’ve done such a good job of minimising cases through social distancing that we’re now very far off getting “herd immunity”. To achieve this we’d need 60-70% of the population to be exposed to the virus. The goal of flattening the curve was to slow the presentation rate to hospitals so they weren’t over run, but not to actually reduce the number of cases. Without herd immunity or a vaccine in place then as soon as borders are opened then we run the risk of exponential case number explosion. Like Singapore is experiencing right now. The so called 2nd wave.

 

[drron]

get me, by that - apologies if I am being obstuse - do you mean there's no guarantee a vaccine will be successfully developed?

Very definitely.There has never been a successful vaccine against any other corona virus.

 

[Himeno]

Very definitely.There has never been a successful vaccine against any other corona virus.

Of the other coronaviruses that infect humans, 4 of them cause the common cold (and only 10-15% of colds). The others are SARS and MERS.
SARS kinda fizzled out after the 2002-2004 epidemic. There hasn't been any known infections since 2004.
MERS has a working vaccine in mice and a human vaccine is being worked on, but lacks funding. With an average of 10 new cases a month globally, mostly in the Eastern Mediterranean, it isn't a major focus.

Currently, for SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19), there are 115 vaccine candidates in development, 78 of which are active projects. 5 are now in human trials.
No need to be alarmist and suggest there won't be a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 because SARS-CoV-1, MERS, HCoV-229E, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-OC43 don't have one.

 

[Dr Ralph]

There was a media report earlier today that the tourism minister had said that international travel won't be resuming before xmas & to plan to spend your next holidays somewhere in Australia, the location depending on decisions made by individual state premiers.

The Minister is dreamin.

 

[p--and--t]

He (Birmingham) was quoted in 'The Australian' and from memory was extremely pessimistic (for those of us who enjoy going overseas. I don't recall the exact estimate of "when" we might expect to go o/s but you're correct, it certainly wasn't this year.

To use that unattractive expression 'this just about does my head in' as we have medical specialists telling us one thing, the Prime Minister and the state Premiers being reasonably consistent (bearing in mind we're a Federation) but then Senator Birmingham comes along and is far more pessimistic than the PM. Many of us on AFF can cope with concurrent information from a couple of sources but this virus must be setting some sort of record in the speed with which indications from those in authority alter: one day optimism, the next day pessimism.

The Minister is dreamin.

There was a media report earlier today that the tourism minister had said that international travel won't be resuming before xmas & to plan to spend your next holidays somewhere in Australia, the location depending on decisions made by individual state premiers.

I didn't hear where and when and the exact detail of the report to check its validity & accuracy.

I found an article in the SMH on his statements

Borders to stay closed, travellers urged to 'see Australia first' once curbs ease

Australians will have to wait until the end of this year or beyond to restart overseas travel amid estimates the coronavirus crisis has wiped out tourism worth $9 billion a month.

www.smh.com.au

Australian Tourism Export Council managing director Peter Shelley said ........"We'd be optimistic about something happening in the fourth quarter of this year but, really, it's probably toward the end of the year or the start of next year," he said.

 

[N860CR]

This is the sort of thing I’m talking about when I say the government is “sitting on their hands”.

We’ve got countless minister, senators and premiers going around making statements like this because the government doesn’t really have a plan as to how we move forward.

It would be nice if the politicians would simply shut up until they’ve got something meaningful to say!

 

[Himeno]

It would be nice if the politicians would simply shut up until they’ve got something meaningful to say!

Isn't that the case all the time, even without a global pandemic?

 

[drron]

Of the other coronaviruses that infect humans, 4 of them cause the common cold (and only 10-15% of colds). The others are SARS and MERS.
SARS kinda fizzled out after the 2002-2004 epidemic. There hasn't been any known infections since 2004.
MERS has a working vaccine in mice and a human vaccine is being worked on, but lacks funding. With an average of 10 new cases a month globally, mostly in the Eastern Mediterranean, it isn't a major focus.

Currently, for SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19), there are 115 vaccine candidates in development, 78 of which are active projects. 5 are now in human trials.
No need to be alarmist and suggest there won't be a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 because SARS-CoV-1, MERS, HCoV-229E, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-OC43 don't have one.

Sorry but it is a fact.There was a lot of hope for a SARS vaccine but it took way to long to get to the point of human trials.
The other point is we still don't know whether those who have had Covid 19 produce a sustained antibody response to the virus.If that doesn't happen the outlook for a vaccine is definitely not a sure thing.It may happen but it is way too early to know.

The human trials started i believe are Phase 1 trials to see that there are no serious side effects.Then large trials which will take some time to see if they do indeed prevent infection.

At present I am awaiting the drug trials that are well underway.If a drug can prevent or treat the serious cases then that will allow relaxation of the current policies.

 

[N860CR]

Isn't that the case all the time, even without a global pandemic?

I was smirking as I wrote it

Post automatically merged: Apr 12, 2020

Sorry but it is a fact.There was a lot of hope for a SARS vaccine but it took way to long to get to the point of human trials.
The other point is we still don't know whether those who have had Covid 19 produce a sustained antibody response to the virus.If that doesn't happen the outlook for a vaccine is definitely not a sure thing.It may happen but it is way too early to know.

The human trials started i believe are Phase 1 trials to see that there are no serious side effects.Then large trials which will take some time to see if they do indeed prevent infection.

At present I am awaiting the drug trials that are well underway.If a drug can prevent or treat the serious cases then that will allow relaxation of the current policies.

That is the big worry. And we seem to be placing a lot of hope on this magic vaccine.

You do have to laugh at some of the commentary. You'll have the same person saying "there is absolutley no evidence that even if you have it, you become immune" as well as "we need to stay at home and "stop the spread" and "social distance" until a vaccine is released!"

 

[juddles]

IMHO a real vaccine as talked about in many circles is just a concept, not a reality. They may get lucky given the unprecedented resources going into same, but at the end of the day it is not a proven process - we may never actually achieve this. certainly no in a time frame that is useful to the economic woes that COVID is inducing.

A couple of days ago I checked flightradar - and I was stunned - at that moment there were only two A380's in the air - both Lufthansa jobs doing obvious "rescue" missions. Just two A380's in the air!! Stunning....

The A380 is an airplane I love - they are glorious. But they were invented in an age of ever-growing travel and no virus. Already their economics were starting to get doubted - way before the virus thing. Now we live in a world where open skies will not return for many years - so I am currently with those that predict that they are doomed.

 

[p--and--t]

Well Qatar have virtually made up their mind

Qatar brings back four more A380s for Europe, Asia, Australia

Once earmarked for retirement, the well-appointed superjumbos are soaring again.

www.executivetraveller.com

 

[tomlee1986]

to be honest... i would be surprised it comes back after the pandemic.. as the loading for 787 is easier than an A380... more profitable too i think