2019 Federal Election Discussion

[drron]

Drron, you do agree though that the right/more conservative members of the coalition government have had a powerful position? The party was dragged much more to the right under their influence.

I tend to disagree on your assessment of Turnbull - to get the top job he had to court the right and was effectively without the ability to put his stamp on government. Many, including me, had high hopes but in the end he couldn’t perform. IMO Abbott was much more of a destabilising influence both within the house and through his many public speeches/pronouncements.

Absolutely not.Turnbull declared the leadership vacant.He still got a majority of votes but it was reasonably close so after a few days resigned.Dutton did not have the numbers so I can't see how the right was dominant.
Turnbull has history.On at least 2 occasions in the past he tried to enter parliament.On both occasions he approached the ALP first and then the Liberal party.This has been very well documented by Richo.In the early 80s I was peripherally involved in what I think was the first attempt.
It is obvious that even in this thread people who thought Turnbull was a good leader of the Liberals are people who don't vote Liberal.He was the major destabiliser of the Liberal Party.

 

[moa999]

IMO Yes channel 2, 7, 9, 10 reliably unreliable

I'd say Ten is already moving to the left (eg. The Project) and wouldn't be surprised if this continues under CBS ownership (viewed as Centre-Left in the US)

 

[moa999]

OMG what has happened to the woke revolution in Wentworth

Went back to prior form.
As I suspect Warringah will in a few years as long as anyone but Tony gets preselected

 

[RooFlyer]

They called the election for the LNP at 2130 hours, they had commentators from both sides of politics.

No doubt Green is the Gold Standard in election analysis, although he was still heavily hedging his bets at 21:30. Leigh Sales was pretty good too on this occasion. All the broadcasters had reps from both sides.

ABC's Laura Tingle, who lit up when Abbott got defeated and then scowled for the rest of the night, was priceless to watch in her abject misery.

 

[RooFlyer]

Went back to prior form.
As I suspect Warringah will in a few years as long as anyone but Tony gets preselected

Yes, if she keeps banging on about nothing but Climate, she'll find even the virtue signalling electors of Warringah will want something more.

 

[love_the_life]

Absolutely not.Turnbull declared the leadership vacant.He still got a majority of votes but it was reasonably close so after a few days resigned.Dutton did not have the numbers so I can't see how the right was dominant.
Turnbull has history.On at least 2 occasions in the past he tried to enter parliament.On both occasions he approached the ALP first and then the Liberal party.This has been very well documented by Richo.In the early 80s I was peripherally involved in what I think was the first attempt.
It is obvious that even in this thread people who thought Turnbull was a good leader of the Liberals are people who don't vote Liberal.He was the major destabiliser of the Liberal Party.

If Turnbull had been more proactive and the rest of the party was like him, I would have seriously considered voting Liberal but as he was only a figurehead and there was such a dry influence (Abbott, Andrews, Seselja, who has history for Canberrans, to name a few) it was never going to happen.
I was not thinking so much about the rolling of Turnbull in the right being influential, rather its influence on policy and what they would accept.
I have no problem with Turnbull moving from the ALP, look at Mundine (though I am pleased he didn't get in). In. Turnbull's case I don't see this as an indication that he was a destabiliser. He was more centre than many in the party room wanted though.

 

[moa999]

Both Rudd and Turnbull were far more central than their party.

Both well liked by the general public, less so within their party machines.

 

[amaroo]

AEC now showing 78 for LNP 67 ALP

 

[RooFlyer]

I was not thinking so much about the rolling of Turnbull in the right being influential, rather its influence on policy and what they would accept.

But the Liberal party is one of the right (side of politics). In strolls Turnbull from the centre and tries to make policy from that position. Many in the party resisted - surprise, surprise. He got one warning, when he was dumped as opposition leader for going too far left (sure, I'm being a bit simplistic here ). Abbott replaced him and swept into government. Turnbull, not happy, knifed him, along with the ever-loyal deputy (she of the red stilettos) et al. A year or so later, what went around, came around, when Turnbull failed to learn the hard lesson he was taught the first time and also failed his own benchmark (X number bad polls). Turnbull quit - he didn't even contest the second ballot.

In the election Turnbull led, I didn't vote Liberal for the second time in my life (and I know there are others here in the same boat). Felt sorry for my local Liberal member, who lost to Labor in the election, but I was preferring Shorten to Turnbull as PM.

 

[amaroo]

But the Liberal party is one of the right (side of politics). In strolls Turnbull from the centre and tries to make policy from that position. Many in the party resisted - surprise, surprise. He got one warning, when he was dumped as opposition leader for going too far left (sure, I'm being a bit simplistic here ). Abbott replaced him and swept into government. Turnbull, not happy, knifed him, along with the ever-loyal deputy (she of the red stilettos) et al. A year or so later, what went around, came around, when Turnbull failed to learn the hard lesson he was taught the first time and also failed his own benchmark (X number bad polls). Turnbull quit - he didn't even contest the second ballot.

In the election Turnbull led, I didn't vote Liberal for the second time in my life (and I know there are others here in the same boat). Felt sorry for my local Liberal member, who lost to Labor in the election, but I was preferring Shorten to Turnbull as PM.

Abbott didn't even want the job - he had to fill the void after Hockey piked it just like Costello did.

 

[RooFlyer]

AEC now showing 78 for LNP 67 ALP

That's with 2 of the 3 'close seats' given to the coalition. Bass in Northern Tas still a tad close - 459 votes in it; 17% still to count.

Re the Tas results (2 northern Tas seats swinging back to Libs). They are notoriously fickle - have changed hands numerous times in last 15 years.

Labor's big splashes in Tas were $50 million for (millionaire gambling philanthropist) David Walsh's MONA hotel-casino project in Hobart. Sure, Walsh is a hero in Tas, but $50 mill for him?? And I think it was $20 mill to help get a Hobart based AFL team into the competition. Two Hobart-centric projects.

Libs splash was a promise of bunch of money to upgrade the major highway in the north of the state. Morrison visited the north a number of times, including on election day. Shorten visited once.

Remember, Tas is terribly parochial north vs south. So, 2 northern seats went to the Libs. Wonder how that happened?

 

[tgh]

I didn't vote Liberal for the second time in my life

Oh the shame……...
I can never wear that badge….. thick and thin.. to me it's all about the philosophy

 

[amaroo]

For all the talk about preferences - the only party to secure seats on 1st preferences is the LNP. AEC tally is showing 5 seats, but there is more than that.

 

[amaroo]

That's with 2 of the 3 'close seats' given to the coalition. Bass in Northern Tas still a tad close - 459 votes in it; 17% still to count.

Re the Tas results (2 northern Tas seats swinging back to Libs). They are notoriously fickle - have changed hands numerous times in last 15 years.

Labor's big splashes in Tas were $50 million for (millionaire gambling philanthropist) David Walsh's MONA hotel-casino project in Hobart. Sure, Walsh is a hero in Tas, but $50 mill for him?? And I think it was $20 mill to help get a Hobart based AFL team into the competition. Two Hobart-centric projects.

Libs splash was a promise of bunch of money to upgrade the major highway in the north of the state. Morrison visited the north a number of times, including on election day. Shorten visited once.

Remember, Tas is terribly parochial north vs south. So, 2 northern seats went to the Libs. Wonder how that happened?

They are now showing all three as LNP (still in the close category) ... the numbers for Macquarie has had a big change today. All three have firmed for the LNP during the day.

 

[I love to travel]

They are now showing all three as LNP ... the numbers for Macquarie has had a big change today. All three have firmed for the LNP during the day.

If those numbers hold we are getting close to a 2 term government here which would make it 5 in total.

 

[RooFlyer]

Plibersek not running for Leader is a big call, especially as she probably won't be deputy any more, as, like the linked story says, the deputy is usually from different faction (and state). That assumes Albanese gets the leadership, which I don't think is a shoo-in.

Would Albanese be another Beasley? Has Plibersek done the numbers and is content to sit back and wait for Albanese to take the initial heat of a losing side and later to stumble?

 

[dajop]

under CBS ownership (viewed as Centre-Left in the US)

That would mean almost perfect alignment with the Liberal Party (probably not the nats), who, by US standards are probably smack bang centre left -

 

[Quickstatus]

AEC now showing 78 for LNP 67 ALP

Prepoll tend to favour the Coalition in most seats
Currently looking at 75. Looking reasonable in 3 seats (to get to 78)
Bass 2PP ahead by 459 (trend is up)
Chisholm 2PP ahead by 591 (trend is up)
Macquarie 2PP ahead by 23 (trend is up)

AEC prioritising the count in these seats

BTW all 3 with LNP female candidates. I thought the Coalition has a problem with females?.

 

[Quickstatus]

If those numbers hold we are getting close to a 2 term government here which would make it 5 in total.

Politics is fickle. Voter sentiment can turn around quickly. I reckon the Turnbull govt was a defacto ALP govt so perhaps not 5 in a row.

 

[PJF]

OMG a Majority Coalition government after despatching the king. How scandalous. The left wing twitterarty must be having head spins