Melburnian1
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- Jun 7, 2013
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The monthly BITRE figures show that for the third consecutive month (February 2019), the number of RPT ('regular public transport') domestic air travellers decreased compared with the same months in 2018 (or 2017 for December).
In February the nationwide decrease was 0.7 per cent:
https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/files/Domestic_aviation_February_2019.pdf
I like February as a comparison month because of the absence of school and public holidays. 2018 and 2019's February had 28 days each, although Feb 2018 had 20 weekdays compared with Feb 2019's 19: perhaps the latter makes a little difference, but doesn't explain how some routes had huge decreases in passenger numbers.
The Melbourne - Sydney route, our busiest, was down marginally: 0.4 per cent.
Brisbane - Sydney had a large monthly drop of 3.3 per cent and Gold Coast - Sydney a bigger drop of 4.1 per cent, but the third busiest, Brisbane - Melbourne, was up 2.7 per cent.
Cairns to Sydney had a huge drop of 10.4 per cent. Was some of this weather (as in rain) related?
Brisbane, as well as Sydney, to Proserpine had mammoth declines in February 2019 compared with Feb 2018 of respectively 18.5 and 31.1 per cent. Did an airline like JQ or TT reduce flight frequencies, or again, was it partly due to adverse weather?
If I recall, nationwide population growth at present is tracking at around 1.7 per cent per annum (and mainland Chinese tourism to Australia is still doing well, although annual increases are not what they were, relevant in part because QF's Mr Joyce is on record stating that these tourists take an average of two to three flights ) so it's not a great news story for the airlines that passenger numbers are falling. As against that, JohnK keeps informing us how domestic airfares continue to rise: this was also shown recently by BITRE in a separate publication.
A minority of small and large businesses' air travel and a fair chunk of leisure air travel is discretionary. It's hard to know since one would have to get a market researcher to conduct interviews by text or phone across a wide population cross section, but if one in 100 travellers decides they can't afford to travel (or don't need to) and everyone else behaves travel-wise the same as they did for the applicable month a year ago, that more or less explains the decline.
Last night (17 April 2019) ABC '7.30 Report' led with a story re possible further house price declines. Its point was that this would increase the percentage of borrowers whose equity was negative, a problem apparently worst in WA/NT and then Queensland. No State however would be immune, and this negative sentiment (seen at present in Sydney and Melbourne as fewer homeowners/investors put properties up for sale) would spread.
In such a scenario, Australia's quasi-duopoly of airline groups might have to reduce fares to get posteriors on board (assuming they didn't want to reduce the number of flights, always possible but then they're left with high fixed costs such as aircraft leasing, staff and other overheads).
In February the nationwide decrease was 0.7 per cent:
https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/files/Domestic_aviation_February_2019.pdf
I like February as a comparison month because of the absence of school and public holidays. 2018 and 2019's February had 28 days each, although Feb 2018 had 20 weekdays compared with Feb 2019's 19: perhaps the latter makes a little difference, but doesn't explain how some routes had huge decreases in passenger numbers.
The Melbourne - Sydney route, our busiest, was down marginally: 0.4 per cent.
Brisbane - Sydney had a large monthly drop of 3.3 per cent and Gold Coast - Sydney a bigger drop of 4.1 per cent, but the third busiest, Brisbane - Melbourne, was up 2.7 per cent.
Cairns to Sydney had a huge drop of 10.4 per cent. Was some of this weather (as in rain) related?
Brisbane, as well as Sydney, to Proserpine had mammoth declines in February 2019 compared with Feb 2018 of respectively 18.5 and 31.1 per cent. Did an airline like JQ or TT reduce flight frequencies, or again, was it partly due to adverse weather?
If I recall, nationwide population growth at present is tracking at around 1.7 per cent per annum (and mainland Chinese tourism to Australia is still doing well, although annual increases are not what they were, relevant in part because QF's Mr Joyce is on record stating that these tourists take an average of two to three flights ) so it's not a great news story for the airlines that passenger numbers are falling. As against that, JohnK keeps informing us how domestic airfares continue to rise: this was also shown recently by BITRE in a separate publication.
A minority of small and large businesses' air travel and a fair chunk of leisure air travel is discretionary. It's hard to know since one would have to get a market researcher to conduct interviews by text or phone across a wide population cross section, but if one in 100 travellers decides they can't afford to travel (or don't need to) and everyone else behaves travel-wise the same as they did for the applicable month a year ago, that more or less explains the decline.
Last night (17 April 2019) ABC '7.30 Report' led with a story re possible further house price declines. Its point was that this would increase the percentage of borrowers whose equity was negative, a problem apparently worst in WA/NT and then Queensland. No State however would be immune, and this negative sentiment (seen at present in Sydney and Melbourne as fewer homeowners/investors put properties up for sale) would spread.
In such a scenario, Australia's quasi-duopoly of airline groups might have to reduce fares to get posteriors on board (assuming they didn't want to reduce the number of flights, always possible but then they're left with high fixed costs such as aircraft leasing, staff and other overheads).
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