What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[drron]

Article from Mr Koukoulas exploring the possibilities for the AUD going below 70c and even as low as 60c. From the same man who called the bottom at 80c a few months ago! The Australian dollar is 'smashed' and teetering over the US70c precipice | Business | The Guardian

Well he was an individual who gave economic advice to the RGR governments.

 

[footy99]

It's very interesting to watch what is going on right now in the currency markets.

How does the US double their money supply and simultaneously double the value of every unit when logic dictates each unit would halve in value? That's a pretty freakish feat of alchemy imo. Supply adjusted, the AUD is down around 75% against the USD in the last few years.

I know our commodity exports are struggling recently but that is an extraordinary plunge from any angle. The headwinds seem to be going in the same direction - ie interest rate rises in US and further commodities depreciation but they must be significantly priced in already.

It's hard to see any attempt at dampening house prices succeeding while the AUD continues its free fall, barring a complete ban on all international investment. To everyone outside Australia, Sydney house prices just keep falling.

 

[cove]

Anyone who switched US dollars when this thread started to now has lost a chunk of change in exchange rates by buying in Australia.
Going the other way would have been the right idea.

 

[moa999]

To everyone outside Australia, Sydney house prices just keep falling.

Albeit every CNY investor had lost Yuans thanks to the fx collapse.
At some point they will stitch to the USD thanks to the peg

 

[quokka77]

@drross... No comment re Mr Kouk's other role(s). I just thought it was amusing that he failed to reference his previous prediction given how far off it was. Reminds me of the old adage about economics being "the science of saying tomorrow why what you predicted yesterday did not happen". In this case he didn't even bother to do that! Still, picking currency swings is a mug's game. I guess if we knew which way the currency market would go, we would be George Soros, rather than award scheme aficionados.

 

[drross]

@drross... No comment re Mr Kouk's other role(s). I just thought it was amusing that he failed to reference his previous prediction given how far off it was. Reminds me of the old adage about economics being "the science of saying tomorrow why what you predicted yesterday did not happen". In this case he didn't even bother to do that! Still, picking currency swings is a mug's game. I guess if we knew which way the currency market would go, we would be George Soros, rather than award scheme aficionados.

??? what have I done now

 

[drron]

??? what have I done now

Just got the wrong drr..

 

[TheRealTMA]

Just got the wrong drr..

Ah that's the problem with fiscal easing, they're now two a penny. Drs that is...

 

[trippin_the_rift]

Interest rates in Thailand are the same as here if not less.

It is quite clear that our monetary policies are not working. Time for interest rates to increase to >10% again. It shouldn't always be about getting people to spend. Time for people to save for tomorrow.

The monetary system is fundamentally flawed and extremely messed up.
If spending stopped the world would be financially doomed. Saving is fine - so long as we're borrowing (ie: bank loans) to do the saving. Otherwise - we're doomed.

We're pretty much doomed either way

 

[cove]

If the currency falls below 50 cents to a U.S. Dollar I will turn very careful as to how I buy stuff in America that would normally be called a bargain.

 

[Austff]

Even at the current rate I think it is no longer worth it .

 

[JohnK]

Article from Mr Koukoulas exploring the possibilities for the AUD going below 70c and even as low as 60c. From the same man who called the bottom at 80c a few months ago!

These are the so-called "experts"?

One problem with our society today is there are way too many "experts" who people foolishly follow for advice.

Anyone who changes their opinion daily based on various factors in play is not an "expert".

 

[marki]

I don't consider that is holding too well especially as the Thai economy is quite sick.

And Australia's economy is fantastic?
I can't help saying this but since the his LordShip John Sewel
scandal this morning I cannot help thinking breast is best. ( the other white milk)

 

[quokka77]

drross vs drron. Sorry! Hopefully no drrob nor drrohan on the site.

 

[drron]

And Australia's economy is fantastic?
I can't help saying this but since the his LordShip John Sewel
scandal this morning I cannot help thinking breast is best. ( the other white milk)

It sure is better than the Thai economy.

 

[Foreigner]

Prediction of very low value of the Aussie:

Australian dollar may hit US50¢ as commodities prices fall, Kaizen Capital says

 

[cove]

Yes Foreigner I read that. We are heading for the U.S. for 2 weeks to help resuscitate the U.S. Dollar. The authorities may be able to shut down that second high speed money printer that they have been using for so many years.

 

[mrs.dr.ron]

....... We are heading for the U.S. for 2 weeks to help resuscitate the U.S. Dollar. The authorities may be able to shut down that second high speed money printer that they have been using for so many years.

And I will be there in September and October doing my best as well.

 

[ellen10]

And I will be there in September and October doing my best as well.

I will be there then too

 

[cove]

Will you be in Los Angeles in early October mrs.dr.ron as mrscove is doing a 1,040 status credit run? I have to be there to help but I only get 520 SCs.
Could we dare to be different and make it a Ruth's Chris run with others in AFF?