Qantas & the A380, will it work?

[RooFlyer]

I don't see how it is way off the mark. Whether to kill competitors or have them close down production the oil price was (my post was made some time ago) being manipulated downwards.

Still you've just given a number of reasons why the oil price is being manipulated downwards. This does benefit the countries/companies that have lower production costs over those with higher cost. Shale oil has high cost of production. Shoot me for because the business commentators haven't considered the geopolitical situation.

Of course, my point related to the topic of the thread is that a low oil price is temporary.

Its shale (non conventional/tight) GAS that's affecting the market. Liquids are a nice by-product. The benchmark oil price will go up and down over short periods, like it always has. But the long term change in the market is ~ US self sufficiency in energy. Can't tell what that will do, as it hasn't happened in a long time. But taking a major consumer out of the global market for essential oil you would think is going to put downward pressure on the price.

Shale GAS is cheap - US and Canadian industry is converting to it as fast as they can. The pipeline network is pretty good (And this is 5 years out of date)




And the flows are as you would expect. Check-out the flow from western Canada! Tight gas!

 

[straitman]

The Saudis/OPEC have increased output because of shale oil in the US and Russia (I hear) as well as others I guess. The key issue is the high cost of production for shale oil. OPEC has a much lower cost of production. Te game being played is kill the competition. Once they're happy with the number of operators shut down, I expect that oil price to jump up again. Speculation I've read is 18 months from late last year.

Which is not happening to any significant degree.

I don't see how it is way off the mark. Whether to kill competitors or have them close down production the oil price was (my post was made some time ago) being manipulated downwards.

<>

Of course, my point related to the topic of the thread is that a low oil price is temporary.

Not much has changed in the last 9 days.

Oil companies close and open field on an as required basis and for a number of reason. Companies such as ExxonMobil with a profit of +/- $1B / week just tweak where they produce from. With low prices they (temporarily) close down expensive producers and ramp up the less expensive producing fields. It's all part of the strategy.

The biggest loser in this is OPEC, maybe Russia and a few other governments.

 

[hossein_au]

Still you've just given a number of reasons why the oil price is being manipulated downwards. This does benefit the countries/companies that have lower production costs over those with higher cost. Shale oil has high cost of production. Shoot me for because the business commentators haven't considered the geopolitical situation.

I think I bow out of the conversation at this time as I do not believe the tone of the conversation is going to lead to any constructive dialog.

Cheers.

 

[medhead]

I think I bow out of the conversation at this time as I do not believe the tone of the conversation is going to lead to any constructive dialog.

Cheers.

The tone of the conversation? What tone?

My premise was that the oil price is being manipulated downwards and a low price is only temporary. That is the key point that is related to the topic. I'm sorry if you find it confronting for me to point out that you've said that the price is being manipulated downwards.

I'm sorry if you cannot handle me pointing out that you've agreed with my basic premise (I certainly didn't argue about the reasons that you put forward) ... But that's ok, obviously I'm being too simplistic in saying the oil price has been manipulated downwards.

 

[medhead]

Well one has to wonder why saudi has increased output.

Regardless of the reasons, I'll maintain my view that the price has been manipulated downwards and that the low oil price is temporary.

Which is not happening to any significant degree.

Not much has changed in the last 9 days.

Oil companies close and open field on an as required basis and for a number of reason. Companies such as ExxonMobil with a profit of +/- $1B / week just tweak where they produce from. With low prices they (temporarily) close down expensive producers and ramp up the less expensive producing fields. It's all part of the strategy.

The biggest loser in this is OPEC, maybe Russia and a few other governments.

 

[straitman]

Well one has to wonder why saudi has increased output.

Regardless of the reasons, I'll maintain my view that the price has been manipulated downwards and that the low oil price is temporary.

WE are not in disagreement that the price is being manipulated. I even hinted, though maybe too subtly, the the major oil companies do the same.

What we are not in agreement about is what affect it will have longer term.