QF group's only May 2014 bright spot was QFi

[Melburnian1]

While one month is just that and not a trend, and load factors do not necessarily equate directly to profits or losses, it's nonetheless interesting in what is usually a low month for Australian aviation, rail and coach travel - May (and has just been described by QF as 'weak' in demand terms) that QFi was the only bright spot for the QF group.

Seat occupancy for the orange cancer declined by 3.2 per cent compared with May 2013; for QFd by 2.9 percentage points and for Qantaslink by 1.7 per cent to a very low 61 per cent, the latter probably a major concern because despite higher average fares, the operating costs of smaller aircraft must be significantly higher on a per seat basis.

However, QFi bucked the trend, rising a creditable 1.6 per cent to 75 per cent of seats taken. JQi declined a dramatic 4.6 per cent to 68.8 per cent while JQ Asia dropped 1.9 per cent to 77.6 per cent:

http://www.qantas.com.au/infodetail/about/investors/trafficStats/may-2014.pdf

The 8 per cent plus in QFd passenger numbers (May 2014 v May 2013) suggests softness in the Australian economy (which QF acknowledges in its typically brief comments), although some QFd passengers may have transferred to VA or (shudder) JQ or TT. The raw number drop in QFd passengers was wayin excess of the JQ gain.

It will be interesting to see if AJ ever pays QFi any credit, although in fairness I do not know how much the loss (or profit) is for each passenger carried per seat kilometre.

 

[Brettmcg]

Look back at most of these published QF statistics for the past 12 months and you'll see more or less the same result. If we are to believe the QF line about International bleeding then this suggests that an unprecedented level of competition and capacity growth have sent yields down the toilet.

 

[Melburnian1]

Breetmcg may raise an important point as CX recently stated that while it was selling about 85 per cent of its seats to and from Oz, Y class yields were 'not quite what we hope.'

Historic price leader SQ is also frequently discounting between Oz, SIN and numerous add on SE Asian destinations such as KUL, MNL and so on.

 

[Brettmcg]

Breetmcg may raise an important point as CX recently stated that while it was selling about 85 per cent of its seats to and from Oz, Y class yields were 'not quite what we hope.'

Historic price leader SQ is also frequently discounting between Oz, SIN and numerous add on SE Asian destinations such as KUL, MNL and so on.

...and when yields are horrible and your cost base is considerably higher than that of your competitors it makes it very hard to spin a profit.

 

[Himeno]

Can the differences between QFd and QFLink be explained by the withdrawal of the remaining 734's and replacement by QFLink 717s?

 

[Melburnian1]

Himeno, yes, that thought did occur to me, but it would only be a partial explanation as QFd numbers decreased by 114000 between the two Mays while QF Link saw its passenger numbers increase by 46000.

 

[Brettmcg]

Can the differences between QFd and QFLink be explained by the withdrawal of the remaining 734's and replacement by QFLink 717s?

Not in this month, at least not the 734s.

 

[Himeno]

Not in this month, at least not the 734s.

Why? They were still using 734s on CBR-SYD late last year. I had a flight on VH-TJX last October. and the last 3 (TJX, TJS and TJI) were stored only a few months ago in Feb.

 

[Brettmcg]

Why? They were still using 734s on CBR-SYD late last year. I had a flight on VH-TJX last October. and the last 3 (TJX, TJS and TJI) were stored only a few months ago in Feb.

The last 734 flight was in FEB14, how would that flow into monthly statistics for MAY14?

 

[Himeno]

:-| Because it is comparing 734 flights in May13 to 717 flights in May14...

 

[Brettmcg]

:-| Because it is comparing 734 flights in May13 to 717 flights in May14...

Oh right, sorry I thought you were comparing QFd with QFLink and not both entities with their respective performances 12 months ago. Carry on!

 

[DaveB]

Would be real interesting to see the impact of the 787's given how poorly JQi results were. Me thinks 99% of JQ passengers wouldn't care what plane they were flying in.
When you have to fly the same planes regardless of the colour painted, hopefully in time it will all have made positive sense and no need for any post mortem.

 

[Aussie_flyer]

JQI would have suffered a little due to the thai political crisis. TGs numbers were down 25% compared may 13. Barely 50% full on the Australia schedule

 

[harvyk]

Would be real interesting to see the impact of the 787's given how poorly JQi results were. Me thinks 99% of JQ passengers wouldn't care what plane they were flying in.
When you have to fly the same planes regardless of the colour painted, hopefully in time it will all have made positive sense and no need for any post mortem.

99% of pax full stop don't really care what plane they are flying on. Provided it gets them there safely and at a level of comfort they are expecting, their care factor about the plane type ceases.

I think Simon Cowell said it best one time when he was been interviewed on top gear. He basically said (paraphrasing a little) "when you are sitting in one of BA's first class seats, you don't really care what the outside of the plane looks like". Yes, to plane nerds like what is found on this forum, we see the wing fences, we see the additional doors, we see the extra 2 engines. The average person vaguely sees something which is in a similar shape to the plane which their 4 year old drew in preschool.

Whilst airlines will do some promo's over new aircraft types, typically it's over what inclusions have been added in each class. Take QF's A380 ads, whilst they did a brief ad showing the outside of the A380, the extended version when went through the advantages which would be found in each class and why that was so special compared to their previous planes.

 

[markis10]

99% of pax full stop don't really care what plane they are flying on. Provided it gets them there safely and at a level of comfort they are expecting, their care factor about the plane type ceases.

Where are you getting the data from to support your claim as I don't believe it. Given a recent study found 35% of passengers would pay more to fly in a new aircraft, I think you might be surprised when it comes to preferences.

 

[juddles]

Where are you getting the data from to support your claim as I don't believe it. Given a recent study found 35% of passengers would pay more to fly in a new aircraft, I think you might be surprised when it comes to preferences.

He might not have the exact figure, but IMHO it is probably close to reality. Those 35% who want to fly in a new plane ( a desire presented to them in the survey) would have no idea when they got to the gate if the plane they saw out there was new or older than them.

 

[markis10]

He might not have the exact figure, but IMHO it is probably close to reality. Those 35% who want to fly in a new plane ( a desire presented to them in the survey) would have no idea when they got to the gate if the plane they saw out there was new or older than them.

It's not: http://skift.com/2013/07/29/skiftsu...ail&utm_term=0_fe7fb4248c-32b0e14404-63707461



There have been quite a number done, and it's surprising how much they do care, which of course is why QF charge A330s more than narrow bodies transcontinental.

 

[juddles]

It's not: Skift Asks: Do You Care About Aircraft Type When Booking a Flight? – Skift

markis10, that is not really an honest reference The main theme in the LOTFAP is an Airbus(non American) versus Boeing (American made) plane!!

 

[Brettmcg]

It's not: Skift Asks: Do You Care About Aircraft Type When Booking a Flight? – Skift

I'd be interested to know how many of that 35% are actually in a position to be able to distinguish between aircraft types. It's one thing to say it influences your decision, another thing entirely to understand the actual differences between types, manufacturers etc.

A simple analogy is wine - I'm sure many people would like to think they are connoisseurs, however if you put a range of cheap and expensive wines in front of Joe Public I think many would struggle to distinguish between cheap and expensive/bad quality and good quality. The same can be said of your average airline pax. Point out an aircraft and ask them to identify the type/model and its USPs to you. I reckon you'd be lucky if 5% of respondents could successfully do it.

 

[markis10]

markis10, that is not really an honest reference The main theme in the LOTFAP is an Airbus(non American) versus Boeing (American made) plane!!

I beg to differ, the link does not even mention airbus as you profer.