Y flex instead of Y saver for MEL-HKG-SAP-MEL worth it?

[Basalt]

This question is along the lines of what would you do?

We’re looking at booking a Jan 2017 MEL-HKG-SAP-MEL(via NRT) trip and am in two minds whether to book Y saver or Y flex? It would be around $1430 each saver, $2040 each flex, with respective SC of 90 and 150. Will be applying for upgrade to J on MEL-HKG and SAP-MEL legs, which means 40,000 pts cost from saver and 25,000 pts cost from flex.

Neither of us will need SCs this anniversary year as I will retain SG and my better half will make SG regardless, with neither realistically able to make WP this year. So I see the pros being cheaper point cost to get J upgrade and 60 more SCs for the long march to LTS and LTG. Con of course is an extra $1200 all up.

Not sure if one has a better chance of upgrade with flex over saver as realistically it's the status and timing? …. Any thoughts?

 

[moa999]

Paying an extra $600 to save 15,000 points - would be like buying points at $0.40 which is not seen as good value
(maybe a bit less as you might earn a few more points as well)..

I'm not aware of fare class coming into the upgrade decision

 

[gapmatt]

I would have booked the saver light, but then that's just me!