It's interesting seeing the various motherhood statements and comparisons being offered to justify WSI, and there is certainly some validity to looking at how the likes of Stansted et al grew, but there's also quite a bit of revisionism going on.
The WSI business case provides a conservative passenger estimate starting with a passenger level of around 3 million in the first year after opening, rising to almost 10 million within 5 years, and almost on par with Mascot by the early 2050s.
The Joint Study which led to the business case instead predicted 5 million per annum by 2035, of which half would be transfers from Mascot, and half from the local catchment. Which, funnily enough, would increase capacity at Mascot, which would defeat the purpose of the whole exercise.
And that's before HSR 1A/B/C comes in towards the end of that decade (yes, HSR came a decade after the WSI business case, but HSR has been talked about even longer than Badgerys!).
Business NSW also noted that "business travel is the most common reason for domestic air travel into and out of Western Sydney"... so, makes sense that LCCs are a primary focus for this airport?
Ultimately, it speaks volumes that:
- the current airport operator wanted absolutely nothing to do with building a new one
- our national airline (and its subsidiary) are doing the bare minimum to avoid criticism
- their main competitor isn't remotely interested
- the big foreign carriers aren't chomping at the bit to shift across and beat the curfew
- there's no push from governments to amend current agreements and/or incentivise traffic
- all the talking points now predict a 'slow start' and gloss over the original statements
I hope I'm wrong - and will gladly eat my hat (if I can find one) this time next decade if I'm proven to be wrong - but let's not pretend that the current situation is even remotely what the original business cases, media releases, airport leadership, or governments expected.
We don't tend to swear on this forum. Generally we have slightly better manners.
Unless you're the warden of internet jail, you can spare me the faux moral outrage.
And they've already been removed from sale...
Perhaps a test run published in error before a proper launch? Bit odd that.
The flaws in this type of argument have been pointed out so many times already in this thread I need not repeat them, yet again.
From what I see, they haven't. But do enlighten me.
HSR? You're kidding, right? Talk about 'pie in the sky'
We wouldn't have needed business cases galore or wasted billions on WSI if we'd built a proper HSR in the first place.
Not to mention the benefits of an east coast HSR are significantly greater, and spread across entire regions, versus the rather centralised benefits of an airport complex in Western Sydney.