Virgin Australia to lease more 737s

[Saab34]

737-700s for WSI I think would work.

 

[MarkD]

Read somewhere else QATAR has cancelled their -8 max order with orders going back to airbus. As partial owner, maybe they will transfer the slots

 

[Saab34]

Read somewhere else QATAR has cancelled their -8 max order with orders going back to airbus. As partial owner, maybe they will transfer the slots

Interview with Badr and Jayne on this exact point a few days ago.

Answer is a firm no.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/qatar-airways-ceo-ex-virgin-103901043.html

 

[markis10]

I don’t the Virgin will get anymore second hand aircraft, the issues with operating multiple different variants is causing concerns safety wise.

 

[Saab34]

different variants is causing concerns safety wise.

Can you elaborate on that, not doubting you just curious from someone who works in safety and risk in another industry.

 

[markis10]

Can you elaborate on that, not doubting you just curious from someone who works in safety and risk in another industry.

It was mentioned in the ask the pilot thread and you actually responded to the post
Ask The Pilot

Adding another variant, say the QR Max 8 orphans, would probably be a bridge too far for CASA when it comes to the VA AOC I suspect,

 

[ANstar]

It’s an interesting point as no doubt I expect WSI to somewhat start off as ‘soft’, and build over time.

On the other hand you could say it’s too strategically important to pass on.

Having a whole bunch of aircraft dropped in from the get go from all carriers won’t be great for making money, and it does seem that Virgin is more cautious with that topic these days. Perhaps sit out for initial period and see how it performs. If it’s starting to build and they are losing traffic to the others out west, then perhaps join them.

If Jetstar also move capacity away from Mascot to WSI this will only benefit QF and VA. More reason for Virgin to possibly stay away. I have a feeling thats what QF might do, some capacity from Jetstar will be moved out west with the hope that those price sensitive travellers will go with them.

They could choose not to open a base initially and instead operate flights from MEL/BNE bases given they are likely to have the most intial demand.

They can always open a base later. Even QF mainline aren't going to be setting up shop on day 1 with flights being operated by Alliance under the Qlink banner. Curious if Qlink will even have staff or if it will be outsourced.

 

[Saab34]

The prospectus has the below.
-18 more 737-8s to be delivered by December 2026. So ramping up to one per month very soon.
-Total Fleet will be 105 737s at this time.

Would indicate about 9 retirements from the existing pool to occur if that’s the case. Also mentions with future contracted positions for additional new generation B737 which would be the last catch of the Singapore machines. So could be 9-12 retirements coming up.

 

[Harrison_133]

The prospectus has the below.
-18 more 737-8s to be delivered by December 2026. So ramping up to one per month very soon.
-Total Fleet will be 105 737s at this time.

Would indicate about 9 retirements from the existing pool to occur if that’s the case. Also mentions with future contracted positions for additional new generation B737 which would be the last catch of the Singapore machines. So could be 9-12 retirements coming up.

The fleet plan shows 70 737-800s by December 2026, so that's 9 retirements at least. The A320s will also be gone from VARA by June 2026.

Also of note, the number of wet-lease lines (i.e. Alliance/Link flying) is being reduced from a current 11 down to 6 by December 2026.

 

[Saab34]

Seems to indicate that one -800 should be leaving this month. Currently two in SIN however are BSI mid life.

Hard to see what’s leaving as the oldest lot they just spend quite a bit refitting the seats. But strange to them retire them a year later, I assume fleet planning/retirements are mapped out a few years ahead.

 

[Harrison_133]

Seems to indicate that one -800 should be leaving this month. Currently two in SIN however are BSI mid life.

Hard to see what’s leaving as the oldest lot they just spend quite a bit refitting the seats. But strange to them retire them a year later, I assume fleet planning/retirements are mapped out a few years ahead.

VUI and VUJ were rumoured to be leaving. They were never reconfigured.

The aircraft in XSP would be there for routine maintenance.

 

[Saab34]

VUI and VUJ were rumoured to be leaving. They were never reconfigured.

The aircraft in XSP would be there for routine maintenance.

That would seem probable as those two are coming to the 2nd heavy check right about now which often coincides with an end of lease or re lease.

The next lot of MAX. Unknown when due.

VH-8II (MSN 65121, LN 9216), 737-8
VH-8IJ (MSN 65126, LN 9226), 737-8
VH-8IK (MSN 65116, LN 9240), 737-8
VH-8VA (MSN 67034, LN 9250), 737-8
VH-8VB (MSN 67035, LN 9284), 737-8
VH-8VC (MSN 67036, LN 9295), 737-8

 

[trisreed]

Would indicate about 9 retirements from the existing pool to occur if that’s the case. Also mentions with future contracted positions for additional new generation B737 which would be the last catch of the Singapore machines. So could be 9-12 retirements coming up.

Probably worth looking at page 74 of the document, it suggests 'this is it' for the -800's. Perhaps the finance types don't realise the specific meaning of "new generation" in terms of the B737.

 

[twinaisle]

That would seem probable as those two are coming to the 2nd heavy check right about now which often coincides with an end of lease or re lease.

The next lot of MAX. Unknown when due.

VH-8II (MSN 65121, LN 9216), 737-8
VH-8IJ (MSN 65126, LN 9226), 737-8
VH-8IK (MSN 65116, LN 9240), 737-8
VH-8VA (MSN 67034, LN 9250), 737-8
VH-8VB (MSN 67035, LN 9284), 737-8
VH-8VC (MSN 67036, LN 9295), 737-8

It's interesting that the 8VA onwards Will be classified as domestic configuration

 

[Saab34]

It's interesting that the 8VA onwards Will be classified as domestic configuration

Is that just one less lift raft or something? I assume they are somewhat cheaper so no need for the full kit.

With a quarter of the fleet being MAX soon I guess no need for all to be International kitted out, doesn’t seem like short haul international is expanding all that much.

 

[twinaisle]

Is that just one less lift raft or something? I assume they are somewhat cheaper so no need for the full kit.

With a quarter of the fleet being MAX soon I guess no need for all to be International kitted out, doesn’t seem like short haul international is expanding all that much.

Dom don't have the raft fitted but everything else on the -8 will be the exact same.

 

[jrfsp]

Dom don't have the raft fitted but everything else on the -8 will be the exact same.

Would they be restricted to routes within 100 miles of land then?

 

[twinaisle]

Would they be restricted to routes within 100 miles of land then?

Long Overwater flights such as ZQN/NAN/VLI/DPS etc will need raft carried.

Tasmania and flights over the bight not so much.