VA loadings to/ from HKG in April 2018

[Melburnian1]

BITRE has released its April 2018 international airline statistics.

In that month, VA operated 30 flights each way Oz (MEL) - HKG.

Outbound, VA carried 5626 passengers compared with the 8250 available seats for a load factor of 68.2 per cent. This is an average of 187.5 passengers per flight.

Inbound to Oz, it was better with 6023 using the flights (73 per cent full.) That's 201 per flight (roughly.)

There are 275 seats on an A332 - is a J seat reserved for flight crew and six economy seats for cabin crew rest?

The figures do not disclose anything about yields, but I opine that VA is making big losses with Y fares quite low given the three nonstop airlines CX QF and VA on the route plus indirect competitors such as PR and 5J via MNL, CI via TPE, SQ via SIN and even HX via SYD or CNS, plus numerous mainland Chinese airlines to nearby airports like SHZ to name a few.

 

[pauly7]

I wonder if their LAX loadings have improved which were also awful last time I checked

 

[Melburnian1]

I wonder if their LAX loadings have improved which were also awful last time I checked

In April 2018, VA's Oz - LAX flights (eastbound) had a load factor of 80.8 per cent while inbound was much worse at 61.3 per cent.

QF were respectively 88.1 and 80.9 per cent.

Again, this doesn't tell us anything about all important yields per total seats, or seats occupied.

AC to/from YVR was 87.1 and 58.1 per cent, so coming in to Oz it was worse than VA, although not flying from the same airport.

 

[Melburnian1]

The heading should be '...April 2018' not '...April 2019' so apologies.

If a moderator could alter it (contributors cannot) I'd be grateful.

 

[Saab34]

It’s a token presence so I wouldn’t be expecting big numbers yet. They lack frequency which will always be a problem, even more so 5 weekly will hurt the Melbourne service for the next 4 months.

Ideally they need BNE daily, twice daily out of Sydney. A day flight HKG-Aus return to one port would be helpful.

Can they do more for Golds and Plats on this route?

 

[pauly7]

On the news:


Rising oil prices stall Virgin Australia’s bid to win passengers from Cathay Pacific and Qantas on Hong Kong routes

Rising oil prices stall Virgin Australia’s bid to win passengers from Cathay Pacific and Qantas on Hong Kong routes | South China Morning Post

 

[Melburnian1]

pauly7, that's code for 'we're making large losses', exactly as I and some others predicted when it started on HKG. (We don't need to be Einstein to have worked that out, as start up losses are true on most routes I'd imagine.)

The constant MEL timetable changes don't help to build loyalty. If you asked me, I wouldn't be able to remember them all, let alone someone who is trying to travel in four months' time and receives a dreaded email from VA. Not always its fault: slot availability is oxymoronic.

 

[hossein_au]

Let's not forget the (un)availability of any decent rewards seat on their entire network. There was a time I chased status and points on VA simply because I wanted to have decent options when it came to flight redemptions. Now that VA is as bad as QF (sometimes even worse), why would I bother chasing status and points with them at all? Most my 'purchased' tickets were on VA a few years ago, but not any more. Velocity was their distinguishing factor; how times have changed...

 

[Mattg]

pauly7, that's code for 'we're making large losses', exactly as I and some others predicted when it started on HKG. (We don't need to be Einstein to have worked that out, as start up losses are true on most routes I'd imagine.)

The constant MEL timetable changes don't help to build loyalty. If you asked me, I wouldn't be able to remember them all, let alone someone who is trying to travel in four months' time and receives a dreaded email from VA. Not always its fault: slot availability is oxymoronic.

MEL-HKG is reverting to a daily schedule with an 11am departure from late October, and this time it should stay that way.

 

[Melburnian1]

MEL-HKG is reverting to a daily schedule with an 11am departure from late October, and this time it should stay that way.

Mattg, you'll be in a better position with your overall knowledge to answer this than many others.

Given VA CEO's comments above, are these two routes (MEL - HKG and SYD - HKG) likely to see VA pull out shortly, despite announced 'permanent' timetable changes?

Other businesses such as Woolworths' Masters may have been slow to shut down, but eventually they do, as also seen with Bunning's disastrous UK foray. Yet airlines admit routes are making losses when one might have expected the flights had time to establish themselves, but still the flights continue despite no immediate prospect of profits. Doesn't seem rational.

 

[Mattg]

Mattg, you'll be in a better position with your overall knowledge to answer this than many others.

Given VA CEO's comments above, are these two routes (MEL - HKG and SYD - HKG) likely to see VA pull out shortly, despite announced 'permanent' timetable changes?

Other businesses such as Woolworths' Masters may have been slow to shut down, but eventually they do, as also seen with Bunning's disastrous UK foray. Yet airlines admit routes are making losses when one might have expected the flights had time to establish themselves, but still the flights continue despite no immediate prospect of profits. Doesn't seem rational.

I can't see VA pulling out of HKG any time soon. They're in it for the long haul.

 

[Pleb Status]

On the news:


Rising oil prices stall Virgin Australia’s bid to win passengers from Cathay Pacific and Qantas on Hong Kong routes

Rising oil prices stall Virgin Australia’s bid to win passengers from Cathay Pacific and Qantas on Hong Kong routes | South China Morning Post

There does not appear to be anything HKG specific in this article, a general quote from JB has just been 'bent' to suit the HKG media organisation writing the article...

There is no doubt VA is losing money on the HKG services at the moment, but looking at their last half results, the bleeding can not be too bad as their international division still made a very small profit ($1.4M last half).

 

[Must...Fly!]

I like all the hyperbole about the codeshares. Pity they don't mention the treatment of Gold/Platinum FFs

There does not appear to be anything HKG specific in this article, a general quote from JB has just been 'bent' to suit the HKG media organisation writing the article...

There is no doubt VA is losing money on the HKG services at the moment, but looking at their last half results, the bleeding can not be too bad as their international division still made a very small profit ($1.4M last half).

Which would quickly disappear if oil shoots high again.

But domestic is making enough money to justify losing a bit on the international, they clearly believe strongly in the fact that the feeder in to domestic is very strong.

Virgin's problem isn't really rising oil prices, they can probably deal with that well enough. It's in the next 3-7 years when they have to look at new aircraft across every fleet type. It will lead to cost savings, but they will need finance to replace the F100s, B737s (the MAX) and the B777 leases too.

 

[Pleb Status]

I like all the hyperbole about the codeshares. Pity they don't mention the treatment of Gold/Platinum FFs

As you would know, since 02 July 2018, VA SG/WP get full status benefits when flying on the various Chinese partners....

 

[ozstamps]

Have not checked but does the SYD-HKG flight mean they have taken a A330 off the Perth run for that turn?

 

[Saab34]

LAX took a little while to gain some momentum. They will need Sydney twice a day and Brisbane to gain any headway.

Don’t forget the significant amount of inbound pax pushed around the domestic network once they are here. Cannot remember the last time I took a flight that did not have large groups of Chinese tourists onboard.

I’d like to see a larger cabin of Economy X on these flights. Huge Revenue op here, A330 is way underdone in this part with only 8 seats. DL has the first 4 rows of Main Cabin as Comfort+.

 

[pauly7]

LAX took a little while to gain some momentum. They will need Sydney twice a day and Brisbane to gain any headway.

LAX is still causing them issues actually, not sure what the problem is there, it’s been going a long time now...

Agree more frequency and alt routes will help but they don’t have the aircraft nor the capital.

 

[Saab34]

LAX is still causing them issues actually, not sure what the problem is there, it’s been going a long time now...

Agree more frequency and alt routes will help but they don’t have the aircraft nor the capital.

I think overcapacity with all these new directs from United, AC, HA, and even all the new NZ-USA is hurting. Essentially less reasons to connect with Virgin in LA when you can fly direct now.

Prices have halved to Europe in the last 10 years sending people West instead.

Problem is VA don’t have a more cost efficient aircraft such as 787 or 330neo to operate instead. 77W probably too big for the market now. Trans Pacific is more suited 789/359.