Ukraine International Airlines PS752 crashes in Iran [confirmed shot down]

[Major]

At least the NTSB have been invited to attend the investigation. Of course it depends on what level of access they allow and how active the participation will be.

One would hope the investigation is open and thorough

 

[Must...Fly!]

There is some pretty solid video from different perspectives out there now which show a missile hitting the aircraft. Following this on social media and other non mainstream sources has been very interesting with the reality presenting itself much quicker.

If you're talking about the one circulating on Twitter.

Why was the individual randomly taking a video early in the morning in pitch black skies just where it got supposedly hit. That particular video doesn't show anything conclusive IMO.

What if there was some sort of an engine failure on the aircraft (fully contained) but a missile defense system mistook the increased heat for an actual missile and fired a defensive rocket toward it to intercept?

 

[flyer89]

Why was the individual randomly taking a video early in the morning in pitch black skies just where it got supposedly hit. That particular video doesn't show anything conclusive IMO.

There have been several new videos come to light. The latest actually showing the impact. This aircraft was shot down by a missile, probably by accident.

The rhetoric coming from the Iranians is predictably incoherent with the latest excuse being “when aircraft are shot down they free fall, how would an aircraft be able to turn back to the airport if it was shot down”. Well no one of note has claimed it tried to turn back and the footage shows (as poor quality as it is) that it did exactly that, freefall.

 

[jb747]

The aircraft debris is not along the planned track, so the implication is that there was a turn to the right.

The unverified Twitter video appears to show a missile strike. It’s worth noting that these missiles are generally fired as salvoes of two.

The comment about “free fall” is gibbersh. An aircraft may break up immediately, in which case that would happen, but much more likely is that it struggles along for a while.

 

[Must...Fly!]

With respect @flyer89, you can't say it *was* shot down by a missile. The videos circulating are not conclusive at all, there is no proof they are even capturing this incident, it could be video from years ago that just looks good and fits the bill.

 

[flyer89]

With respect @flyer89, you can't say it *was* shot down by a missile. The videos circulating are not conclusive at all, there is no proof they are even capturing this incident, it could be video from years ago that just looks good and fits the bill.

Sure. All of that is true and ill be happy to walk back everything Ive said and will gladly call myself an idiot and how wrong I was (Ive gotten used to be wrong all the time) if it becomes clear this was a terrible 'mechanical' failure. But for now I would assert this aircraft crashed as a result of 'external' factors.

 

[eastwest101]

With respect @flyer89, you can't say it *was* shot down by a missile. The videos circulating are not conclusive at all, there is no proof they are even capturing this incident, it could be video from years ago that just looks good and fits the bill.

Yes - may take a while for verification videos and of course analysis of the wreckage to determine what the source was of the sudden and explosive failure on the B737-800 in question.

But raises the question of whats more likely?

1. A nervous and ill-disciplined Iranian air defense mistake or an error in the background of having very recently launched a missile attack on US bases in Iraq, and fully expecting a US military air response, right at dawn (max fatigue zone and/or possible shift/duty time change) followed by a last minute scramble and cack-handed attempted cover up that changes by the hour by a paranoid and despotic government who have recently had to suppress internal dissent?

Or

2. A hitherto previosuly unknown fatal flaw in the engine of the B737-800 that can catastrophically bring down the most common airliner in the world that had been in service for at least 20 years, and this fatal flaw just happens to occur in a recently delivered and trouble free example?


So if you beleive in 1. being more likely then you would probably be comfortable flying as long as your aircraft isn't routed over conflict zones in the middle east. If you fall into category 2. then you probably won't set foot in another B737-800 ever again.

 

[flyer89]

I’ll add that at least another 2 videos of this have surfaced (potentially). The latest one from a different perspective and different location. It captures the moments before it was struck right through to the impact.

So if we pretend this is actual footage of the incident then I count approximately 17 seconds from the time it was struck to the time it impacted the ground. That gives an approximate ROD of about 28,500 FPM (if my dodgy maths is accurate.

For the first time I feel like the conspiracy nut who doesn’t care about evidence or objectivity. Time will tell. My partner often criticizes me for being too “sciencey”. I could do with a change.

 

[Berlin]

Looks like the truth will make it way to the surface faster than thought, even in Iran. To me, the strongest indicator currently is the news about Canada, at least a country I'd view as half way independent and trustworthy here. Better than some grainy online videos which can always be false. But so could be the Canadian government- it's still mostly guesswork.

 

[jb747]

There was a feed I was looking at earlier today, in which a journalist from the US ABC (I think) was discussing how/what they meant by verifying these videos. Basically, they were going through them, and working out exactly where they were shot from, and in which direction. Triangulating them, and ensuring they fit the same timeline. Sound also came into it. The upshot was that they felt they were real, and certainly beyond casual fakery.

You have to wonder how any missile crew could think that shooting at a US aircraft could be so easy.

 

[flyer89]

You have to wonder how any missile crew could think that shooting at a US aircraft could be so easy.

Indeed. And now reports of the U.S detecting two missiles being fired at the time as well as radar equipment being used. You would have to be pretty delusional to think that the U.S isn’t Watching you at all times with every piece of technology they have.

 

[Berlin]

You would have to be pretty delusional to think that the U.S isn’t Watching you at all times

Delusional. That's a term which doesn't sound too far off with regards of Iran's "Revolutionary" forces or whatever they call them...

 

[Long_20]

Delusional. That's a term which doesn't sound too far off with regards of Iran's "Revolutionary" forces or whatever they call them...

Why is that misleading? They had a revolution in 1979. Hence the "Revolutionary Guards"

 

[Berlin]

Why is that misleading? They had a revolution in 1979. Hence the "Revolutionary Guards"

Did I say misleading? I thought the term was "Delusional" and that goes for pretty much anything relating to some imaginary sky fairies if you ask me

 

[flyer89]

On Jan 9th 2020 in response to the claims Iran's CAO (Civil Aviation Authority) stated that a missile attack on the aircraft was scientifically impossible, such rumours make no sense.

War is Peace. Freedom is Slavery. Ignorance is Strength.

 

[Tropic]

Hard to understand why civilian airline traffic resumed so soon after an offensive ballistic missile operation when the likelihood of incoming hostile and associated defensive airborne assets was still high?

 

[Quickstatus]

Speculation: Did the aircraft have an engine fire causing the anti aircraft batteries on the ground to think they are under attack which then cause the accidental launch of the SAM . Apparently 2x SAMs were launched?

 

[Tropic]

The Iranians would've been well aware of the presence of US airborne ELINT and ECM assets in their airspace and that any SAM defence (including accidential or automonous) would be defeated (jammed). Curiouser and curiouser....

 

[Daver6]

Why would an engine fire cause a SAM to be launched?

 

[DC3]

Why would an engine fire cause a SAM to be launched?

This is Iran, isn’t it? Who knows what protocols for engagement were in place.