UA additions to AKL/CHC and BNE

[docjames]

United is now cancelling LAX-BNE services.

United Airlines suspends Los Angeles to Auckland route

Between December and February flights were only 60% full.

www.stuff.co.nz

And AKL-LAX. Article also mentions reduction in delta flights

Loads have been poor in general after fairly aggressive pacific capacity growth from US, and presumably some level of government support drying up, at least in BNE.

SFO is the UA fortress whereas LAX is a battleground - so no surprise LAX is the dropped routing in favour of building SFO.

 

[HS-TQE]

Loads have been poor in general after fairly aggressive pacific capacity growth from US, and presumably some level of government support drying up, at least in BNE.

SFO is the UA fortress whereas LAX is a battleground - so no surprise LAX is the dropped routing in favour of building SFO.

Subsequently DL has reduced LAX-SYD to add the taxpayer subsidised LAX-BNE in a "Rob Peter to Pay Paul" situation. Can't see DL making a better go of it considering their loads on the double daily LAX-SYD, like all other competitors wasn't not very stellar. I'm tipping DL will bail on BNE once the subsidies expire.

For normalisation (post Queensland taxpayer subsidy) tips: I'm tipping it would be:
* QF's daily BNE-LAX on the QF A330, despite the complaints QF/AA JV are pretty much the 'giants' on this particular route, since the departure of the VA/DL JV.
* UA's SFO-BNE going x4 weekly full time alternating between the 788 and 789. Can't see the NW/Australian summer seasonal daily flights lasting when the Queensland Government subsidies dry up.
* AC going back to daily 788 on BNE-YVR, with seasonal up-gauges to 789 over the NW/Australian summer.

 

[Saab34]

So much capacity across the Pacific, all but ends any chance seeing Virgin running widebody ops again to the US. Unless they did a deal with United and replaced their capacity on some routes.

 

[HS-TQE]

So much capacity across the Pacific, all but ends any chance seeing Virgin running widebody ops again to the US. Unless they did a deal with United and replaced their capacity on some routes.

Slim chance of running BNE-LAX should the USD improve against the AUD in 2026 and post-IPO (small fleet for Japan and USA out of BNE), especially when BNE-LAX is largely O&D outside of QF/AA JV (and allows UA to send their aircraft elsewhere on 'more profitable' routes out of LAX), but I would not put my money on it, especially if QR ends up getting involved as the cornerstone investor post IPO.