should qantas publish international upgrade statistics?

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JohnK

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What is wrong with telling a bronze, on a peak flight, that their upgrade request has a zero chance? Or if only a small chance, that could be communicated and the passenger can then take the risk accordingly.
Every situation is different.

A flight booked ~350 days in advance may not be full and may also not be traditionally a peak flight so the information presented would be meaningless as the flight sells out closer to departure.

Also a flight 1 day may have 10 upgrades while the next day it has none.

The software you are asking for is too complex. It needs to consider moving holidays such as Easter, school holidays, special events such as Olympics etc.

This is yield management and you want a simplified version to assess your chances of an upgrade. Perhaps what you need us confirmed upgrades at time of booking but I am not convinced Qantas will have any interest in that either.
 

Moopere

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Perhaps what you need us confirmed upgrades at time of booking but I am not convinced Qantas will have any interest in that either.

This is the real answer. I'm not a gambler and wouldn't spend 1c to get put into a lottery as regards to a providers service levels.
 

MEL_Traveller

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Every situation is different.

A flight booked ~350 days in advance may not be full and may also not be traditionally a peak flight so the information presented would be meaningless as the flight sells out closer to departure.

Also a flight 1 day may have 10 upgrades while the next day it has none.

The software you are asking for is too complex. It needs to consider moving holidays such as Easter, school holidays, special events such as Olympics etc.

This is yield management and you want a simplified version to assess your chances of an upgrade. Perhaps what you need us confirmed upgrades at time of booking but I am not convinced Qantas will have any interest in that either.

All airlines seem to be able to raise fares for the 'moving' holidays - this would be no different. I reckon Qantas would know, based on the many years this has been in operation, whether or not the QF1 or QF4 or 29 on any given day of the week ever had a bronze points upgrade or not.

I think it is a fair question to ask 'what are my chances' and it is fair to be told what those chances are. Even if only an approximation, that allows the passenger to make an informed choice.

Already at this stage, looking at MEL-HKG on 20 December, just about every QF and CX flight is sold out in all but full Y class (Y9 and the rest are zero'd out). CX/QF must know those flights are likely to go out full, and the composition of upgrades in those cabins.
 

Moopere

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All airlines seem to be able to raise fares for the 'moving' holidays - this would be no different. I reckon Qantas would know, based on the many years this has been in operation, whether or not the QF1 or QF4 or 29 on any given day of the week ever had a bronze points upgrade or not.

100% agree with you - they will be able to predict, within a hairs whisker, the likely loadings. They would need to be very very careful with the language they use to inform of 'chances of success' though as large group prediction (with suitable obfuscation) is easier then individual chance and PAX will naturally read any advice here as _their_ individual chance rather than the overall chance of any random red/gold or whatever status holder.

Having said that though, I feel really that the basic problem, the 'unfairness' if you like, is the whole idea of paying more for the lottery. As others have already said, if they want to restrict upgrades to certain purchased classes then fine, almost everyone does this. I think all airlines would better serve their customers to more realistically price their points+pay options as this is what folks are _actually_ trying to get around ... the often ridiculously low value of the set-piece P+P offered now.

From the airlines perspective, they simply want you to pay more - if they offer information that might result in PAX paying less (by essentially opting out of the lottery and buying cheaper tickets) then they don't make as much money ... fairer (in my view) yes, but an unlikely result I'd suggest (edit: unless mandated by consumer law ... now there is an idea!)
 
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juddles

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because Qantas has a unique system ...... With other airlines it doesn't matter because you know at the time of booking if you can confirm your upgrade.

I used to maintain Avianca Gold (Star Alliance Gold) status, partly because Avianca had an ¨unlimited upgrade¨ program. I got sick of my upgrades being denied even though the J section would be EMPTY on my flights. The staff could never explain it.

Qantas is far more reliable.
 
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