Should I buy my US dollars today?

[franky3844]

Hi everyone - I am hoping for some expert opinions here - and I do understand that this is opinions only.
I am travelling overseas in January and was just going to put money across to my Wizard card as I usually do and withdraw at ATM's for each country I visit.
However I will need US Dollars and with the conversion rate dropping by the hour - I was wondering if it is worth exchanging some money now while it is close to $1 for $1.
What does everyone think? I've been told our Aussie Dollar is likely to drop to 80cents US
Any comments greatly appreciated

Franky

 

[sergeyvzn]

no one really understands what is happening with financial markets now, experts give all sorts of contradictory advice so unless you need a large amount, I would just wait - you might lose a bit but might also gain

 

[straitman]

Hi everyone - I am hoping for some expert opinions here - and I do understand that this is opinions only.
I am travelling overseas in January and was just going to put money across to my Wizard card as I usually do and withdraw at ATM's for each country I visit.
However I will need US Dollars and with the conversion rate dropping by the hour - I was wondering if it is worth exchanging some money now while it is close to $1 for $1.
What does everyone think? I've been told our Aussie Dollar is likely to drop to 80cents US
Any comments greatly appreciated

Franky

Franky,

IMHO tossing a coin will give you as good an answer as any other at the moment :!:

 

[Taezar]

When I organised my Fiji holiday (did the online reservation) it was 1.09. By the time they got back to me and filled in 8 pages of information (dive trip so lots of info) 2 days later it was 1.06. I got in yesterday at 1.04. This morning it was 1.01 now it is back down under $1.
All suggestions seem to be it will stay around that level as there is expectations that the RBA will make a rate cut in September and any currency that can lose 10c in a week isn't really that "safe" bet anymore.
I am just pleased I got in when I did. I suggest hedging your bets - do 1/3 now and see what happens.
Who knows where it will go...
Taez

 

[coyote25]

The US dollar as the reverse world currency seems to do the inverse of all other currencies ie the worse the financial crisis in the US the bigger the flood of money to US Treasuries strengthening their dollar.

Any other country and their dollar would drop significantly in the same circumstances. The mostly likely long term solution for the US government is substantially increase the number of dollars in their economy effectively devaluing the currency.

They have already done this and will continue to do such but it appears the currencies 'true' valuation will take years to be reflected as large firms and countries (like China) just keep dumping more and more money into the US because they can't find anywhere else to hold so much cash and to keep their investment from losing money - this type of behavior in a company usually means the end is near but I'm guessing the players involved can kick the problem down the road for a while longer.

Bottom-line the US dollar value isn't following any investment sense making it's movement unpredictable. Probably go up for a few days than crash than go up. A lack of crisis will see the likely slow long term decline.

If I was you I'd probably wait it out. The best time to change was last week. When you ask the question based on market movements already in play it is usually too late. At least you aren't traveling for awhile for there should be ups and downs before you leave.

Good luck with the lottery that is currency fluctuations

 

[medhead]

Wow. You'll get a thousand views. I think (non expert opinion) at the moment the market is making emotional reactions. They are mostly following the crowd. So people are pulling out of AUD investments and moving to safer investments. I did hear on the TV this morning that US treasury bonds have gone up and I believe that means people are moving money into those bonds. To me this is strange, they are buying bonds from a country that has been downgraded and is at greater risk of defaulting on their debts (e.g. bonds)

Anyway, it seems strange to me. I expect that people will soon realise that Australia still has high interest rates. So will move back to AUD.

In your position I would hedge my bets. Work out how much you need, get some US$ now and set a couple lower limits based on what you are prepared to achieve. Then monitor. If it drops to your set lower limits then get more US$. also progressively buy if it moves up.

As an example, you might buy 50% of your requirement now and then the other 50% progressively as it drops down towards say 95 cents.

 

[drron]

Yes last week was definitely the time to buy.but I would agree buy some now as even if it does move up it will probably not move as fast as it fell and Forex traders will be loathe to quickly change their rates.
The problem is people mis interpreted the strength of the aussie dollar as reflecting our economies strenghth and interest rates.Those things have some effect but the Aussie dollar is a "risk" asset so when people dont want to take a risk-down she goes.My guess is it is going to take a while for people to get their appetite for risk back.
The Aussie is the world's fifth most traded currency.

 

[franky3844]

Thanks so much for everyones comments so far. Thinking I will hedge my bets and get some now and leave some and see how it goes. I agree - it's like tossing a cin to figure out the market at the moment.

 

[BAM1748]

If it's one to one or better suggest you buy now.

 

[franky3844]

Seems Aust Post is the best place - @ 0.9867
Any other suggestions?

 

[blackcat20]

Seems Aust Post is the best place - @ 0.9867
Any other suggestions?

Travelex had the same rate this morning. I saw 95c at my local ForEx booth so 98 seems pretty good.

 

[travelislife]

I have always used KVB Kunlun, you can call them for their rates.

www.kvbkunlun.com/en/

 

[JohnK]

The AUD has been around USD1.05 in the cash exchanges in Brisbane the past few months. Wish I had money to hedge bets but unfortunately cash is a rare commodity these days.

It was great to get THB32 to the AUD back in June trip but all I can look forward to know is <THB30 to the AUD on next trip in October.

 

[cove]

Aussie is all go and heading back up after a bit of stupid. It is about 1.035 and looks much better than 0.99 less than 24 hours ago.

 

[sr81]

Don't forget that the rate you see this morning will not be priced in until tomorrow for most money sellers. EG. Westpac is selling at 98 cents. What a rip. I wouldn't buy any currency today but hold off for a day or two.

The noted page of KVB Kunlun is interesting. It seems to be a market FX interbroker. Never seen these sorts of guys do retail before but happy to be shown otherwise.

 

[franky3844]

arrgghh - wish I had yesterday off work - then I would not have panicked. Still only bought some of what I need so if it continues to go up, I will go back to Plan A and use my card. If it goes down, I am covered too. Thanks for everyones advice.

 

[travelislife]

The noted page of KVB Kunlun is interesting. It seems to be a market FX interbroker. Never seen these sorts of guys do retail before but happy to be shown otherwise.

Yea they do retail but is just out of their offices, no commission and generally a good spread. I haven't used in a while but my girlfriend went to the office in Melbourne last week and got some pounds and euros. Good spread but not quite as good as I remembered.The stuff of yesterday is just crazy, for the Market to drop 5.5 percent in the morning and then finish 1.2% in the black is just crazy, no basis at all. There are some people who would be making killings of all this, such big fluctuations in such short periods of time. No way to be able to predict it, but if you can move fast enough there are gains to be made.

 

[coyote25]

Currency exchange with any country vs the USA in these times is mostly just guesses at not great ones at that. The good thing about changing now is you know how much you have ie peace of mind.

I'm sure the rollercoaster will continue for some time but long term above parity is likely since US will almost certainly "print" more money.

Have a great trip

 

[medhead]

Currency exchange with any country vs the USA in these times is mostly just guesses at not great ones at that. The good thing about changing now is you know how much you have ie peace of mind.

I'm sure the rollercoaster will continue for some time but long term above parity is likely since US will almost certainly "print" more money.

Have a great trip

Very good point. It is more a case of deciding what price you will be happy to get. Then buy at that price and don't worry if it goes higher later.

 

[blackcat20]

I bought a couple of hundred extra yesterday, but at 1:1 I'm not fussed...its still a good deal, and given how cheap it is in the US, a few cents here and there really doesnt make much difference in the long run.