I just took a walk from one end of BNE domestic to the other, not what I was expecting, but the Qantas end was very quiet with the Rex and Jetstar area about two thirds of pre covid but surprisingly the Virgin end was absolutely heaving with people like a normal Friday afternoon. No major delays or cancellations across the boards so maybe Bain have figured out how to get the punters in?
Agree. This has been a common experience of late. VA are doing particularly well at filling their planes – which might be a surprise to some.
MEL-SYD is one example I find interesting. QF prioritise high frequency. They have 15 min intervals in the peak, and 30 min (mostly) the rest of the day. If you look at ExpertFlyer most of these flights are not very well patronised. VA’s frequencies, while lower, are still competitive and have relatively good loads. It’s interesting QF are persisting with such high frequency when demand is flat. Especially given the Group is much more conservative with JQ’s current schedules.
And I know EF isn’t always accurate but it’s the closest guide we are going to get….so take some examples from today comparing the two:
•
QF685 1535 MELADL ≈7J+95Y and
VA233 1610 MELADL ≈8J+161Y
•
VA735 1010 MELOOL ≈8J+127Y and
QF880 1020 MELOOL J N/A ≈63Y,
note: VA had hourly flights, QF 2 total. VA at 0910 had ≈158 pax.
•
QF866 1620 MELCBR ≈9J+66Y and
VA279 1650 MELCBR ≈8J+117Y
•
QF470 1700 MELSYD J N/A ≈116Y and
VA867 1700 MELSYD ≈8J+154Y
•
QF474 1730 MELSYD ≈9J+109Y and
VA871 1730 MELSYD ≈8J+157Y
•
QF478 1800 MELSYD J N/A ≈102Y and
VA875 1800 MELSYD ≈7J+136Y
• All the above were 737 flights
Again, I know this doesn’t give us the full picture of things like fare types or staff travel, but it’s an interesting data point nonetheless. Obviously we can’t get JQ data to compare and Rex’s current predicaments have been well discussed, but there seems to be a trend where VA have much higher loads at present.
With things beginning to pick up, QF loads will improve, but even casting back to January 2021 when we had open borders and no covid, there was lots of commentary then too about VA having high loads compared to their rivals.
I don’t think we should underestimate VA like some here enjoy doing and it doesn’t help to look at things through a QF is best lens.
P.S. Apologies for the long post!
Friday arvo = peak leisure = VA
Their price points have been very competitive if you're paying out of your own pocket
Except you could apply Eastwest’s point to virtually any day of the week…my most recent VA trip was MEL-LST on a Tuesday, back on Saturday. Full flights both ways, T3 at Tulla absolutely heaving both times. Meanwhile, QF were still running 50 seater Q300’s to LST…only now have the 717’s started to increase in frequency again.