Qantas announce more regional growth

dajop

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Wow Rex poked the bear. Now they’ll be screwed.

The link is circular, but QF are going to launch MEL-WGA/ABX/MIM/MGB/NTL, SYD-GFF and ADL-MGB.

It’s almost looking a bit predatory. I know they’re all competitive routes and competition is good, but is it a coincidence they’ve been happy to not compete on these exact routes for decades but now all of a sudden have an interest in all of them, at the same time Rex is launching jet services?
 
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justinbrett

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A number of new routes announced,mainly Q300s
Post covid,looks like the Q300s from the failed JQ NZ regional play
Have found something to do.good to see Launceston moving up to a B717 too
Do we start the clock on how long it will take Rex to start whinging?
Qantas reveals new flight routes — news.com.au

It’s been a long time since QLK flew NTL-MEL. NTL was one of those ports that was handed to JQ on a silver platter, it’s so good to see QF take it back (especially after closing the JQ base). Might need a QP for NTL now.

Having said that, NTL-MEL is a bit long for a -300, I remember last time there were luggage restrictions when the flight was full. Hopefully this will be at least a Q400 if not 717.

Edit - they are all 717 flights. Definitely need a QP!
 
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astrosly

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I would like to see MEL-ARM with a few direct flights a week. I think it would be viable as I know many people like myself who regularly fly this route including academics for the university. Armidale has almost finished upgrading the airport to have screening so we can use bigger aircraft. A Dash8 400 could easily do this route in a couple of hours and will save so much time faffing around at SYD.
 

dajop

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I would like to see MEL-ARM with a few direct flights a week. I think it would be viable as I know many people like myself who regularly fly this route including academics for the university. Armidale has almost finished upgrading the airport to have screening so we can use bigger aircraft. A Dash8 400 could easily do this route in a couple of hours and will save so much time faffing around at SYD.

May something for Rex to pivot too? Or more likely a Link route.
 

justinbrett

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I would think MEL-TMW would get up before ARM. These routes would also canabalise the SYD routes and considering it’s north of SYD, not as much to be signed from a direct flight.
 

jb747

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It’s almost looking a bit predatory. I know they’re all competitive routes and competition is good, but is it a coincidence they’ve been happy to not compete on these exact routes for decades but now all of a sudden have an interest in all of them, at the same time Rex is launching jet services?

Well, REX is making a bit of a deal of their linkage of the regional flights with their new jet services, so it's probably not surprising that they're getting a bit of the same.

Mind you, I can't see some of these services lasting. REX had three flights per week day between Albury and Melbourne, and it was rare for them to be full.

Now, a jet service from Albury to Newcastle, or even better, Brisbane would be nice. I doubt that it's really viable, but surely a couple of times per week...?
 

justinbrett

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Well, REX is making a bit of a deal of their linkage of the regional flights with their new jet services, so it's probably not surprising that they're getting a bit of the same.

Mind you, I can't see some of these services lasting. REX had three flights per week day between Albury and Melbourne, and it was rare for them to be full.

Now, a jet service from Albury to Newcastle, or even better, Brisbane would be nice. I doubt that it's really viable, but surely a couple of times per week...?

We don’t even have a jet service to Canberra from Newcastle. Or any service to Adelaide.
 

jakeseven7

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Wow there are some great new routes on there, for Melbourne especially.

And talk about putting Mt Gambier on the map.

I was half expecting that QF would enter MEL - Byron actually, lots of $$ heads to Byron....
 

astrosly

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I would think MEL-TMW would get up before ARM. These routes would also canabalise the SYD routes and considering it’s north of SYD, not as much to be signed from a direct flight.
I think you may be right for TMW, but as ARM is almost as busy as TMW for revenue passengers I would hope that ARM is given a fair look. There is over 100K passengers through ARM per annum or about 2000 per week. Even if only 1 in 10 that fly from ARM are going to MEL (and I would hazard that the percentage is more) then 200+ passengers per week on that route can suitably fill a DH8-400 with 3 return flights a week and remove one flight to SYD on these days. Given a choice of 2 hr direct flight vs 5-6 hrs via SYD I'm sure the patronage to sustain a direct flight is possible.
 

astrosly

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May something for Rex to pivot too? Or more likely a Link route.
If MEL-ARM ever got up I think it would be Link not QF mainline. I don't think REx has the equipment, the Saab340 may struggle on this longer route (see above comments on using DH8-300 on MEL-NTL) and with a max speed of 467km/h (DH8-2/300 is 505km/h) the flight time will be more like 3 hours and passengers may opt for two flights via SYD and a couple of hours extra travel time to avoid so long on a twin prop. The B737 would be too much capacity for this route and they only have a few at the moment.

For Link, the DH8-400 is a sweet spot on this route for speed (667km/h) and capacity (though I would really like to see it with a 717! :))

In June I flew ARM-MEL all on DH8-400 and it would be perfectly fine for a 2hr direct flight.
 

dajop

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Mind you, I can't see some of these services lasting. REX had three flights per week day between Albury and Melbourne, and it was rare for them to be full.

Yes agreed, those various routes that their entering certainly didn't seem to have a lot of traffic. Wagga, Mt Gambier etc all seemed quite boutique
The question is who will quit first? Rex or QF? I suspect Rex.

And whilst it will be good for short term competition, and people moan about Rex and their monopoly fares .... if Rex do pull out on some routes, QF are not exactly known for generous pricing on their monopoly routes either. MEL-MIM and SYD-MRZ are both monopoly routes, similar length, at the moment on the former Rex fares start from $128 on the latter from $153 on QF.

Why don't QF look at expanding into new markets, or improving existing service? Surely there's other growth out there, eg. MEL-PQQ or MEL-CFS? Increase frequency BXG-SYD to double daily weekdays? MEL-MYA?
 

esquire

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A number of new routes announced,mainly Q300s
Post covid,looks like the Q300s from the failed JQ NZ regional play
Have found something to do.good to see Launceston moving up to a B717 too
Do we start the clock on how long it will take Rex to start whinging?
Qantas reveals new flight routes — news.com.au
great news ! Of course what did REX expect - free reign to take on QF and VA whilst protecting their regional markets?
 

jase05

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Wow there are some great new routes on there, for Melbourne especially.

And talk about putting Mt Gambier on the map.

I was half expecting that QF would enter MEL - Byron actually, lots of $$ heads to Byron....
Personally happy with a couple of those. MEL-WGA suits us better than having to go through SYD and work wise ADL-MGB will provide us with better options for freight movements
 

drron

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Last wednesday when driving from Latrobe to Devonport saw a QF plane coming into DPO.It was a 717.I gues the combination of Christmas,school holidays and the border recently open saw a surge in passenger numbers.

PS good to see a 717 operating a MEL-MCY service
 

Mattg

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Sounds like a good reason to return to Griffith! I've previously travelled there on the train, but with only 2 trains per week it's a bit difficult to make that work.

Last time I looked at Rex flights, they had priced themselves out of consideration. But $125 or 8,000 Qantas points + $27 for SYD-GFF is a pretty good deal.
 

farmboy

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Wow Rex poked the bear. Now they’ll be screwed.

The link is circular, but QF are going to launch MEL-WGA/ABX/MIM/MGB/NTL, SYD-GFF and ADL-MGB.

It’s almost looking a bit predatory. I know they’re all competitive routes and competition is good, but is it a coincidence they’ve been happy to not compete on these exact routes for decades but now all of a sudden have an interest in all of them, at the same time Rex is launching jet services?
There are two separate issues with this;
1. Using Sydney - Orange NSW as an example. The route is clearly not big enough for two airlines, and Rex's long & profitable business solvency comes from its refusal to run at a loss for any extended time. So it may leave Orange to Qantas. Then Qantas may well decide that it is losing too much and abandon the route. This has happened before**. Its pretty clear who the losers are.
2. Some busier routes like Sydney - Dubbo, with up to eleven flights a day, deliver specialists there in the morning, who return at lunch time to service patients in both Sydney and Dubbo on the same day. Obviously any shenanighans on that route would have very serious effects. Dubbo is highly business orientated and any schedule disruptions have a serious flow on effect.

**Qantas forced Rex out of the Port Lincoln route. And then abandoned it themselves. The South Australian government actually then came to Rex and asked them to resume service.

Putting extra flights on a weak route (Orange 10pax), smacks of desperation. If that's not anti-competitive behaviour requiring intervention, then what is?
 
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