Melburnian1
Veteran Member
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2013
- Posts
- 25,575
The BITRE's monthly report shows that in February 2014, domestic air passenger numbers only grew in line with population growth (the latter is about 1.8 per cent per annum - Victoria though is two per cent per annum):
http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/files/Domestic_aviation_ Feb_2014a.pdf
Seat capacity rose 1.4 per cent for the month compared with February 2013, while passenger numbers rose 1.8 per cent.
Melbourne - Sydney (and v.v. - a total figure) rose only 0.8 per cent in February 2014 compared against Feb. 2013, while Brisbane - Sydney - Brisbane was even worse at 0.3 per cent.
These figures jump around from month to month, but it's a disappointing performance.
Corporate travel managers in 'AFR' today were claiming that competition between QF and VA for business flyers was 'intense.'
Whether or not true, neither will make money until median yields increase.
As other AFFers have said previously load factors are not as important as yields - carrying a full planeload at $50 a pop if your costs are $60 a seat does not please the beancounters - but I assume that higher demand for seats (a higher load factor) will often push up median fares.
The loss of passengers on CBR to MEL, SYD and BNE routes is predictable given the new Commonwealth Govt's desire to reduce spending (and reduce public servant numbers) but a 10 per cent fall in a small volume route, AYQ - SYD was a tad surprising given that tourism is doing reasonably well at least as far as foreign visitors arriving. Similarly, while mining's downturn means a loss of passengers in Feb 14 compared with Feb 13 on routes such as BNE - Emerald, the MEL - Mildura route (not overly a mining destination) also dropped a bit.
http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/files/Domestic_aviation_ Feb_2014a.pdf
Seat capacity rose 1.4 per cent for the month compared with February 2013, while passenger numbers rose 1.8 per cent.
Melbourne - Sydney (and v.v. - a total figure) rose only 0.8 per cent in February 2014 compared against Feb. 2013, while Brisbane - Sydney - Brisbane was even worse at 0.3 per cent.
These figures jump around from month to month, but it's a disappointing performance.
Corporate travel managers in 'AFR' today were claiming that competition between QF and VA for business flyers was 'intense.'
Whether or not true, neither will make money until median yields increase.
As other AFFers have said previously load factors are not as important as yields - carrying a full planeload at $50 a pop if your costs are $60 a seat does not please the beancounters - but I assume that higher demand for seats (a higher load factor) will often push up median fares.
The loss of passengers on CBR to MEL, SYD and BNE routes is predictable given the new Commonwealth Govt's desire to reduce spending (and reduce public servant numbers) but a 10 per cent fall in a small volume route, AYQ - SYD was a tad surprising given that tourism is doing reasonably well at least as far as foreign visitors arriving. Similarly, while mining's downturn means a loss of passengers in Feb 14 compared with Feb 13 on routes such as BNE - Emerald, the MEL - Mildura route (not overly a mining destination) also dropped a bit.
