Middle East Airspace Diversions/Cancellations

It's not a silly scenario, more like a sensible scenario considering the head case politicians that are involved in conflict. If the strait of Hormuz is still closed this time next month I can almost guarantee leisure aviation will be heavily impacted.
So LCCs will stop but full service airlines with Biz travellers will soldier on?

In reality, any airlines that don’t bounce through the sand pits will be cashing in.
 
Including the accounting of reserves/holdings includes tankers in transit rather than just landed fuel which seems on one level at least to be a bit disingenuous.
Yup - this site I stumbled across on Twitter suggests there's only about 19 days of jet fuel left (it's very doomscrolly I hasten to add).

(Still, the Donald has just announced he's postponing bombing Iranian energy infrastructure which has caused the oil price to drop.)
 
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So pleased to read this just now. Wishin' and prayin'. Maybe just finding a graceful exit.
Highly unlikely at this point.

From Iranian POV - you have Trump who has now attacked twice during negotiations so theres no trust on anything he says. Then you have Israel whos hellbent on destroying you despite what the US want- if left unchecked Israel will strike at all the Iranian oil and gas infrastructure.

And if Iran doesn't come to the table, you're not going to have a "graceful" exit and theres little reason for them to. They're not really caring about their citizens - the regime recently slaughtered tens of thousands of protesters. They're also fighting for the regimes survival.


So despite what Trump will do and say in the white house, it's going to be a while before its over.
 
We still have a VA booking to Europe leaving Friday. Obviously that's not going, but still no notification from VA (or QR) despite the SYD-DOH sector disappearing from the itinerary. The DOH-CDG still shows as on-time Saturday morning as it just ticks over to March 29 (March 24 now and Qatar still hasn't said a word about what happens post March 28), which is asinine, but I'm waiting to call in now in part just to see if they actually notify me in the next day or two. The good news is that it does seem VA is refunding these flights quickly without hassle. Pity to lose our upgraded DOH-SYD sector on the way book but I guess after the day comes and goes I won't mind having those 180,000 points still back in my account for future use.

Our backup is booked on Emirates (yes I appreciate that my risk tolerance for flying through the region is obviously higher than some others). All four sectors have been on-time every day since March 7 except one sector on one day that was cancelled, so we'll see. If it falls apart last minute, that's fine; it is what it is --- I wasn't going to spend $4000-5000 to fly in Y via Asia or North America.

We shall see. I shall also report back if we make it on what the experience is like.
 

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