Middle East Airspace Diversions/Cancellations

[justinbrett]

MH17.

Unlikely, but has precedent.

With hostilities breaking out, and the military hardware left behind by the US on withdrawal from Afghanistan, it could present a risk.

You can never completely eliminate risk

 

[Coops1]

Haven't read back yet, have a look at the flight path of BT792 of 28 Feb, particularly the last bit where it travels between spots instantly. Some interference over the airwaves maybe?

 

[MELso]

Qantas waiver now in place: https://www.qantas.com/agencyconnect/au/en/agency-news/march-2026/airspace-closure.html

 

[ayebee]

Haven't read back yet, have a look at the flight path of BT792 of 28 Feb, particularly the last bit where it travels between spots instantly. Some interference over the airwaves maybe?

I believe it is "GPS Spoofing". I took a screen shot last night of EK315 on final to DXB. It was jumping back and forth as track shows.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

You can never completely eliminate risk

Agree. But you can take reasonable steps to minimise it.

Flying over a known war zone, where you know at least one of the parties has access to former US anti aircraft missiles, is not minimising risk.

Nor is blindly following NOTAMS - which are the bare minimum, not the maximum.

Especially after MH17 - although I’d argue it applied well before then - the consequences of flying over a war zone in these circumstances are foreseeable.

 

[justinbrett]

Agree. But you can take reasonable steps to minimise it.

Flying over a known war zone, where you know at least one of the parties has access to former US anti aircraft missiles, is not minimising risk.

Nor is blindly following NOTAMS - which are the bare minimum, not the maximum.

Especially after MH17 - although I’d argue it applied well before then - the consequences of flying over a war zone in these circumstances are foreseeable.

I feel like the FAA (and major western airlines) know more about this than either of us.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I feel like the FAA (and major western airlines) know more about this than either of us.

That was exactly the same argument around MH17, which unfortunately proved wrong.

Any advice given by the FAA - or any other regulatory authority - is the minimum, at best.

 

[Aeryn]

A diversion over Russia is also highly unlikely

My unlikely comment was re your statement about being TSA'd and deported. There have been press beat up of this happening 3 times and one was a lady married to yank entering on a ESTA instead of a spousal visa so imo a lot less risky to risk a US landing then diversion into a war zone like Russia or the ME.

 

[justinbrett]

That was exactly the same argument around MH17, which unfortunately proved wrong.

Any advice given by the FAA - or any other regulatory authority - is the minimum, at best.

QF is one of the most risk averse airlines. If they’re still overflying Afghanistan I’m confident they know more about this than you.

SAMs capable of reaching airliners at cruise are tracked pretty closely by intel and were not left when the US withdrew. MH17 was fired by a nation that is known to have these weapons.

 

[markis10]

QF is one of the most risk averse airlines. If they’re still overflying Afghanistan I’m confident they know more about this than you.

SAMs capable of reaching airliners at cruise are tracked pretty closely by intel and were not left when the US withdrew. MH17 was fired by a nation that is known to have these weapons.

I would agree, as would others

 

[Quickstatus]

MstrQS flying out to LHR today on SQ.
Flights still operating....