Looming Jet Fuel Shortages?

[Pushka]

It will be like Ukraine. And most other wars around the world that we don't hear about because they don't impact us personally. Fester erupt fade. Rinse and repeat. Eventually the countries will change their MO to adapt to change in circumstances.

 

[elanshin]

It will be like Ukraine. And most other wars around the world that we don't hear about because they don't impact us personally. Fester erupt fade. Rinse and repeat. Eventually the countries will change their MO to adapt to change in circumstances.

Except in this case we will feel it. Petrol has been steadily climbing and its really got no end in sight at this point as things are getting worse not better. Petrol prices will bleed into everything else as well.

 

[tomlee1986]

What is it going to take to end this thing?

I doubt it will end

 

[Pushka]

Except in this case we will feel it. Petrol has been steadily climbing and its really got no end in sight at this point as things are getting worse not better. Petrol prices will bleed into everything else as well.

Yes. Thats why we know all about it. As I said. UK felt the Ukraine dreadfully. Still does. Does Australia feel Ukraine? Not as much. It won't end. We will find ways to work around and adapt. Painfully of course.

 

[Saab34]

Seems to be a tail to these things, if they got things with Iran sorted tomorrow, you get these small flair ups across the region from all sorts of parties.

I think there would be a 6 month tail to any sort of resolution. Seems like many airlines have already budgeted the rest of the calendar year as worse case scenario. Not as bad here as we go into high margin peak, not great for the US who typically burn cash over Christmas into the NY. Locally here the two main airline groups have built up cash and have somewhat healthy balance sheets, Rex however will need some more help I think .

 

[jrfsp]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2026/09/21/how-high-will-jet-fuel-go-225-a-barrel/

Expect a wave of airline bankruptcy if it continues

 

[Quickstatus]

Ah, the media experts coming out again after being so wrong a few months ago..

Interestingly, no one is calling for the Govt to reduce the fuel excise as fuel climbs to $3 in AU

 

[Quickstatus]

The real information is fuel consumption rather than price and an indicator for that is revenue passenger kilometer

There was a contraction earlier but since stabilised.

Have any airline introduced a fuel surcharge yet?

 

[transpactraveller]

Interestingly, no one is calling for the Govt to reduce the fuel excise as fuel climbs to $3 in AU

The opposition have tried but the Australian media aren't interested this time and are largely ignoring it.

The media still have significant influence in controlling public sentiment by choosing what messages they amplify or suppress.

However it's worth remembering with a global context, petrol prices in Australia aren't that high. $3/L would be considered cheap in most other countries.

 

[Pushka]

The media still have significant influence in controlling public sentiment by choosing what messages they amplify or suppress.

Absolutely this. We are manipulated every single day. About pretty much everything.

 

[lovestotravel]

Ah, the media experts coming out again after being so wrong a few months ago..

Interestingly, no one is calling for the Govt to reduce the fuel excise as fuel climbs to $3 in AU




View attachment 522130

Yes the media has called on the Gov to reduce the fuel excise.

The Libs even have some plan that if oil average above $100 they will cut it while the average remains above $100

 

[Quickstatus]

The media still have significant influence in controlling public sentiment by choosing what messages they amplify or suppress.

the idea is not to limit ones media sources.
In any case, I suspect that there is still a lot of $$$ in the economy with the Govt pumping cash in.

The Libs

Yes they have called it "fuel price shield" and reported by the ABC in the last couple days.

 

[Pushka]

the idea is not to limit ones media sources.
In any case, I suspect that there is still a lot of $$$ in the economy with the Govt pumping cash in.




Yes they have called it "fuel price shield" and reported by the ABC in the last couple days.

I'm watching Undeclared War on Stan. I will never trust any media site again for anything.

 

[Warragul]

I'm watching Undeclared War on Stan. I will never trust any media site again for anything.

A big statemnet What about when the bushfires are bearing down and the media says its too dangerous to drive on highway X?

 

[Quickstatus]

Airline prices are just a reflection of what people are prepared to pay.
Airline prices come down when people wont /can't pay the prices demanded

Same for $3 fuel though today I got diesel for $2.69

However the "preparedness to pay" is the price elasticity for any goods and service - and only up to a point. What that point is difficult to say and will differ between class travelling classes and some routes are more price inelastic than others.

 

[Pushka]

A big statemnet What about when the bushfires are bearing down and the media says its too dangerous to drive on highway X?

I'd get alerts from the source. Not what the media filters.

 

[elanshin]

Airline prices are just a reflection of what people are prepared to pay.
Airline prices come down when people wont /can't pay the prices demanded

Same for $3 fuel though today I got diesel for $2.69

However the "preparedness to pay" is the price elasticity for any goods and service - and only up to a point. What that point is difficult to say and will differ between class travelling classes and some routes are more price inelastic than others.

Up to a certain point. I think rather than "fuel shortage" we're going to see more financially distressed airlines going forward.

Fuel prices are going up and there's no signs right now it'll stop. Airfare thus in theory need to also go up to maintain profitability. Fuel hedging likely will also start to be exhausted soon (if they didn't declare force majeure already). We're also entering into a traditionally weaker demand period for Northern Hemisphere.

Demand will likely drop further as living costs rise due to fuel increases. That diesel price for the car and trucks will soon ripple across everything.

In March, doomsday scenarios for fuel was presented. In the months following, a bunch of emergency buttons were all hit globally - some expected, some unexpected. Now all those emergency buttons have more or less been exhausted. We're in for some very unstable times right now. There's clearly major geopolitical decisions being made almost daily right now by many of the world's major powers.

 

[Quickstatus]

I'm

Demand will likely drop further as living costs rise due to fuel increases

Private and Public Demand /consumption is up not down and is definitely not reflected in the RBA statistics
Additionally household disposable income is also up not down
If they were, there would be no reason for the RBA to raise interest rates.
Review in January when the RBA has raised interest rates by 3x0.25%.

Now all those emergency buttons have more or less been exhausted

Not sure what buttons you are referring to.