Last QF 747 on SYD-HKG-SYD

[OATEK]

After boarding VH-OEG on QF128 HKG-SYD on WED 30/1/2019, the CSM announced that this could well be the last such flight for the 747. While no official announcement by the airline, the CSM said the rumour mill was running hot that this was the case. He said the A380 is back on the Chinese New Year peak period and then they had been told that the 787s would take over. I had already expected it would be my last 747 flight anyway, as they have all but disappeared from my regular routes. But as the crews are notified about upcoming trips, they do not see any HKG flights in the foreseeable.

The crew looked after us very well, and despite the droopy beds in J, it was a good flight.

 

[Isochronous]

I will miss seeing the 747 on approach to Chek Lap Kok!

 

[Himeno]

They put the 787s on HKG routes because of the wait for DOT approval for the planned QF/AA joint venture .

If the JV gets approved, they are likely to move the HKG 787s to the proposed SEA or ORD routes, which means 747/A330 returning to the HKG routes.

 

[moa999]

Alternatively with more 787s I could see them being used on SYD-DFW and possibly a 3/wk MEL-DFW, particularly as the A380 is limited on this route

Which might free up A380s for SYD-HKG, although yield has obviously been tough recently

 

[JohnK]

Sad day. And I will never understand the need to replace 747s.

 

[casanovawa]

Sad day. And I will never understand the need to replace 747s.

Well they obviously need replacing at some point, whether by other 747s or other models... The current ones are already old flying rattle traps with substandard hard product not worth refreshing because of fleet decisions and the age of the airframes...

As to whether the they should be replaced by new 747s or not, that is all up to bean counters and engineering types (who are taking a dim view of 4 engined models) and not avgeeks and plane nuts with a soft spot for certain designs....

 

[JohnK]

Well they obviously need replacing at some point, whether by other 747s or other models...

Understand the need to replace the current 747s. It's a shame the demand for 747s has dropped.

 

[juddles]

With Project Sunrise, QF is definitely heading down the path of big twins - my bet is the 777, the only other option the A350.

How long will they keep A380's? Who knows, but I doubt they will ever order more. They are just running the 747's until end of useful service life - there is no future room for similar aircraft.

 

[Daver6]

Obviously not simple, but imagine if they could just bolt on two large, efficient twin engines onto a 747 instead.

 

[moa999]

How long will they keep A380's? Who knows, but I doubt they will ever order more.

They have 8 on order that they keep deferring and I expect will never be delivered.

Particularly with the rumours floating around today that EK will switch A380s for A350, which will likely mean the closure of the A380 line

 

[jb747]

Well they obviously need replacing at some point, whether by other 747s or other models... The current ones are already old flying rattle traps with substandard hard product not worth refreshing because of fleet decisions and the age of the airframes...

Well the product may well be beyond its use by date, but the 747 ERs should have some years left, and are far from being rattle traps. They were a very nice update of the original -400. Rumour at the time had it that QF tried to get some more, but Boeing pushed them towards 747-8 or 777, neither of which they wanted. One was pie in the sky at the time, and the other was something they'd already decided against.

In a more normal world, the likes of Geoff Dixon would never be permitted to buy aircraft. He dismissed the 777, which whilst not suitable in all variants, would have been an excellent fit in others. The A380 is an excellent example of why you should never buy the -100 model of anything, especially, as it's now going to be the only model (and yes I know what the real model number is).

With Project Sunrise, QF is definitely heading down the path of big twins - my bet is the 777, the only other option the A350.

It will be interesting to see how that pans out. My bet is the Sunrise will never eventuate as more than a niche offering. How many people want to pay a premium of 30% on their fare to save an hour or so.

My feeling is that the 350 is actually a better fit, but we'll see.

How long will they keep A380's? Who knows, but I doubt they will ever order more. They are just running the 747's until end of useful service life - there is no future room for similar aircraft.

Someone forgot to order appropriate replacements.....

They have 8 on order that they keep deferring and I expect will never be delivered.

Particularly with the rumours floating around today that EK will switch A380s for A350, which will likely mean the closure of the A380 line

As Airbus have actually sued one airline, and forced them to take delivery, this will be an interesting outcome in itself. These are orders, not options, and AJ will be praying for the 380 line to close. Even then I could see legal action, perhaps with a goal of forcing 350 purchases to offset those 380s.

 

[flyer89]

As Airbus have actually sued one airline, and forced them to take delivery, this will be an interesting outcome in itself. These are orders, not options, and AJ will be praying for the 380 line to close. Even then I could see legal action, perhaps with a goal of forcing 350 purchases to offset those 380s.

Is D-Day for that coming up this year or am I thinking of something else? Is it correct that whilst they don’t have to order 380s they have to commit to at least the value of 8 380s to satisfy the agreement?

 

[RooFlyer]

Is D-Day for that coming up this year or am I think of something else? Is it correct that whilst they don’t have to order 380s they have to commit to at least the value of 8 380s to satisfy the agreement?

And of course being Qantas they will offer to price the replacement flight plane at the current cost, not the discounted price paid initially

 

[moa999]

Is it correct that whilst they don’t have to order 380s they have to commit to at least the value of 8 380s to satisfy the agreement?

I doubt anyone here knows the ins and outs of the contract. But like anything amendments can be negotiated.

 

[Himeno]

Is D-Day for that coming up this year or am I thinking of something else? Is it correct that whilst they don’t have to order 380s they have to commit to at least the value of 8 380s to satisfy the agreement?

They have 8 orders and 4 options left. These orders are converted options from the initial order of 12 with 12 options.
Since the QF A380 contract is from early in the A380 program (having ordered them when it was still the A38XX and being the 3rd airline to get them), they likely have them locked in for far less then the 446 million USD list price.

The routes QF want to do with 'Project Sunrise' are 500+ miles longer then SIN-EWR, which the A350-900ULRs SQ uses can only do with a limited payload. The A359ULR can't do what QF wants.
The 777-8X has the loading QF wants, but not the range (on paper), but it hasn't flown yet. First flight is due later this month. It's more possible to lower load and increase range then to keep range and increase load, so it is more likely that QF will go with the 777X for Sunrise, though maybe not with the quoted 300 pax.

As things stand now, I see one of 3 things happening with the QF A380 order;
Airbus cancels the A380 program with a lack of 'real' orders and EK reportedly looking to change to the 350.
Airbus cancels the QF order, like they did with some other airlines. Though those other airlines were bankrupt at the time.
QF converts the order to other Airbus models or takes them as replacements for current 380 fleet.

 

[jb747]

No aircraft can do the Sunrise range with a 'full' load. It's nothing but navel gazing.

A smaller load, for sure, but I have my doubts about the viability.

 

[OATEK]

No aircraft can do the Sunrise range with a 'full' load. It's nothing but navel gazing.

A smaller load, for sure, but I have my doubts about the viability.

I am sure you are right, and that there will have to be another advance in technology and/or design to get the distance. But I remember when the 747(SP?) first started doing the one-stop (via Asia) in lieu of the previous 2 stops. In 1987 we flew in a BA 747 one stop to LHR (via Bangkok or Kuala Lumpur from memory), but in 1990 we were still getting good deals on two stop (eg. CX SYD-HKG-Dubai-LHR). It took a few years before the one stop route became the default, although I have gone back to the two stop given the price advantage. hence my return from LHR via HEL to HKG where we were told the QF128 leg could well be the last for 747s on the route to SYD.

 

[moa999]

The routes QF want to do with 'Project Sunrise' are 500+ miles longer then SIN-EWR, which the A350-900ULRs SQ uses can only do with a limited payload. The A359ULR can't do what QF wants.

Airbus is offering up a 350-1000 in some form of ULR to meet Project Sunrise, so it would be a different aircraft to what SQ has.

And as jb747 says, they can't have a typical full load so much like the 787s expect them to be premium heavy.

This is why there is talk about using excess underfloor space for things like bars, exercise rooms, kids playroom etc..

I'd also hope for some spacious downstairs toilets. Airbus has previously done this on the A340 and A330 although it had limited take-up - think LH and Thomas Cook

 

[calmelb]

QF will still need to keep the 4 engined aircraft for a little while longer. AFAIK CASA still haven’t allowed ETOPS with enough range for the 787s, etc to fly to J’burg and Santiago

 

[moa999]

They've still got two years till all the 747s go, plenty of time for CASA, and more time for QF to demonstrate it can operate the 789s without issue